Real Estate Developer
How do you incorporate a terminal value for a real estate developer?
We were given a forecast for 5 projects with different lives. The company will not cease operations after these projects but their ability to replicate these 5 big projects is not certain.
In your opinion, how will you incorporate the terminal value given that the 5 projects will have different lives. Meaning, the last project may end by 2030 but all other project have already ended in 2025. Therefore, merely using the FCFE in 2030 and then applying the gordon growth or P/multiple may not be meaningful.
Thanks.
You'll probably have to make some sort of assumption as to new projects they'll take on in the future. Maybe take a look at their pipeline to see what's on the horizon, or figure out how many projects (and type/size of those projects) they've done historically and factor that in. If these 5 projects aren't indicative of their "usual" business, then you probably shouldn't base your terminal value on them anyway.
I did one valuation similar to this previously, but didn't have a terminal value so far in the future...
not sure what youre asking. if i understand, youre valuing a real estate developer with 5 projects in the pipeline and dispositions between year 1 and terminal year. private developers will sit on the cash from dispositions, distribute as cash, redevelop / renovate old projects, or develop other properties.
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