Thoughts on investing in commercial real estate now or in the near future?
Anyone bullish on commercial real estate given its steep decline throughout this year? I'm just a college student looking to throw some money into a REIT or some sort of real estate portfolio company. Thought it could maybe be a good time to buy given regional bank collapses, high rates, lack of refinancing, and lack of demand for commercial real estate right now. Frankly I don't know too much about real estate so I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are and if you see commercial real estate continuing to decline or potentially recovering in the near future.
Everything is about price/value. Let's say that a property generates $100k and investors are willing to pay $1mm for this property, so the property is worth $1mm. Now lets say for whatever reason - be it interest rates, work from home, the Amazon effect, etc... - this property now generates $50k. The property still has value and can still be a good investment...just not at $1mm, perhaps investors are now willing to pay $500k for it. So to answer your question, I am actually quite bullish on commercial real estate, but only at the right price. And I think given what's happening in the market, this is a very opportune time to keep an eye on real estate. It's not everyday that real estate values fall...this is the first time in 15 years and given how illiquid real estate is and how asymmetrical information is, there can be some significantly mispriced properties from sellers because they are distressed (i'm already starting to see quite a few distressed sellers).
As for REITs, unfortunately I can't provide much insight. You're just kind of at the mercy of the REIT managers making good decisions and at the mercy of the market.
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