32 Comments
 

Watch video / read transcripts of their respective CEO's and you'll see very different cultures.  Frankly, one of them thinks of himself as the next Ray Dalio / Charlie Munger and every time he speaks it's a TED Talk.  Promotes two guys and in the press release, says they have rare genetic qualities - the delated gratification gene and fiduciary gene?  GMAB.  Personally, I like a little humility in a leader, especially a real estate investor - we're not curing cancer or sending someone to Mars or splitting the atom or running a quant hedge fund here.  

At the same time, his company stock price is up way, way bigger than the other, so what do I know.  

 

Lol - good, spicy stuff. This rhetoric began with the previous CEO and has continued and amplified with Shankh. There's a lot of hubris there. But if you are allocating capital, would you rather allocate to Ventas? Hell to the no. They have repeatedly promised things that never happened operationally. Their team is not considered to be close to the firepower of Welltower. Their CIO is... less impressive. Deb's place in the hall of fame is secure as SH is hot again, but they've lost some shine operationally since 2018/2019 when they made a huge deal about senior housing fundamentals turning a corner, then they didn't, then they (rumor has it) screwed up revenue management at their Atria portfolio, where they owned equity and it was supposed to a flagship and demonstration of their competence.  

 

Agreed that JH is less than impressive and that they shit the bed with guidance in 2019 but what is the rumor regarding atria revenue management?

I would prefer VTR and AHR to WELL just based on multiples alone but I also think VTR is doing a good job with capital allocation the past couple of years. They are only buying SH and yes, their multiple is increasing as of late, but WELL is already priced to perfection (or in their case, beyond perfection).

At some point, you can’t chase growth forever

 

I have coworkers who were previously at both shops. Each have their upsides and downsides. I would probably pick Welltower over Ventas if given offers from both. Welltower's CEO says some ridiculous things on his earnings calls but they are firing on all cylinders with no slowing down in sight. Their stock is trading at an absurd premium to consensus NAV so they can pretty much outbid anybody on deals. Like others have said, hours and WLB is stupid but the pay is great.

I have heard horror stories about Ventas ICs. It has been described to me as a "one (wo)man firing squad." Whatever that means.

 

Well, all I really REALLY know well is what pay at REITs is like. So I think one could safely say it is great for a REIT. As for the others, I don't know unfortunately, sorry.

I don't think many FO roles are located in Toledo anymore so I think you're comparing against Dallas and NYC comp. I wouldn't recommend accepting an offer from Welltower outside of the Dallas or NYC offices. 

 

Besides the senior team demands you work those hours. The CEO works insane hours and so does everyone below him. It comes from the top. You’re at “your own beck and call” but not really - when an OM comes out or a broker give you a first look you have 24-48 hours to get a response so that you can keep turning thru deals. You are at the market’s beck and call. 

 
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HR:  full-on fire sale mode after they WAY overpaid for HTA.  Some of the sale prices on things they bought just three years ago is crazy.  CEO resigned less than a year ago.  

DOC/Healthpeak:  just underwent merger that was for the express purpose of reducing headcount, so wouldn't say it's sunshine and rainbows over there.  Also, heavy exposure to life sciences which is a bloodbath (though maybe of everyone who fell into the lab outhouse, they came out smelling best?).  

Wall Street just doesn't like MOB REIT's and it's killing their stock price which starts vicious cycle.  No growth.  Those 15 year leases at 3% looked great pre-inflation, but now seriously lag.  And the underlying medical tenant health is not good as their reimbursements (top line) is pretty fixed / stagnant due to payer contracts / medicare and their biggest expense (labor) has gone through the roof, so margins crushed and they can't pay higher rents, oftentimes killing planned expansion.  And new Medicaid rules in OBBBA will absolutely take pound of flesh from hospitals once they kick in in 2027(?).  

Revista data is clear: Q2 MOB sales of $1.6B is lowest they've ever recorded.  

 

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