What do we think will happen to RE given some of policies by the Trump admin?
The market has been a massive rollercoaster and while the treasury flirted with a sub 4% rate, it’s shot back up and general inflationary pressures of the tariffs and market volatility (isolationism) has me worried about my job/the economy? I didn’t vote for the guy, but I definitely didn’t think it would head in this direction.
Do we think he’s actually just playing hardball and will walk back some of the tariffs? Do we think this is going to blow up transactions in the near term? Create problems with fundraising? Or will the big guys just get bigger because there will be blood in the street? I mean I think development will be hard to pencil in the near term
It's all a guess but I think this will be over rather quickly. I don't think he really intends to keep these tariffs and he knows he doesn't have long to let the economy suffer before it kills mid terms. So I think what will probably happen is China ends up giving in just a little bit, he takes the win and advertises it as a big win and backs off before things get too crazy.
He will not want the market or economy to get too ugly for too long under his watch. Sure he says he doesn't care, but he has to say that because he's taking the strong footed position that he's not backing off until countries negotiate, and any sign of weakness could ruin that, but we all know how his head thinks.
I'm using as an opportunity to load up on investments at discounts because I just can't believe he's going to hold this for too long. He's already getting concessions from smaller countries and as soon as he gets enough to say he "won" I see him starting to back down. Will he completely renege on tariffs? I don't think so, but I think he will back off pretty seriously once countries are willing to play a little ball.
Could be completely wrong but that's where I'm putting my chips
I may be giving too much credit, but part of me thinks that this is really part of a plan to:
Curious why you think rates will come down if inflation goes up massively (which it will) if the tariffs are left in place?
The idea was that the "tariffs" would cause a big recession meaning they'd have to start cutting rates then once the debt is refinanced out he pulls the "just kidding" on the tariffs before the economy actually gets bad. Looks like he was forced to end up doing that earlier than expected.
I'd normally agree with you but from a purely psychological standpoint, one side either China or Trump have to give in a bit. Historically Trump's ego shows he wont be the one to do it, so will China do it? Theres another scenario here. China may just say screw it and lets do an all out tariff war, they may have the resources and the ability to keep their people suppressed while Trump won't. Chinas technically been in a long running "recession" for years but theyve managed. The US on the other hand, if we go into a recession, even Trump's strongest supporters will push back. He's already losing support of the GOP and megadonors. This isnt just a tariff war, its a war of egos.
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