When to buy a house?
I’m currently engaged and we’re ready to buy our first house. We live in Atlanta where the market has gone crazy over the past year. Between the appreciation and increase in rates, I am on the verge of being priced out of the neighborhoods we like.
so many people are calling for a crash. I don’t think there will be a crash but I think a decrease in consumer sentiment and the increase in rates will cool the market a bit (hopefully stop the bidding wars). But there is still such a massive supply/demand imbalance that I have a heard time believing that we’ll see a decent drop in home prices. I worry that if I continue to wait, rates and prices might price me out before I know it.
im curious to hear what real estate people have to say. Would you buy now or wait and rent?
No one has a crystal ball. If you're going to live in the same place for 15+ years, the rent vs own calculator will almost always tell you that owning is cheaper. If you buy and then relocate in 5 years, you likely would have been better off renting unless this crazy growth continues.
That should be your analysis - how confident are you that this home will work for you for the next 10-15 years? Is there any chance you have to move for career or family reasons?
Other than that, don't stress about the market. Imagine if you bought in 2007 - you almost certainly would have been devastated that you bought at that point in time. But here we are 15 years later... same guys who were kicking themselves in '09 are patting themselves on the back in '22
15 years of kicking myself sounds like a win?
that's like saying in the end we're all dead anyway, so who cares.
You would have been kicking yourself for like 3 years. And that was one of the worst recessions in the past 100 years. Look at average home prices from 2007 to 2022
Looking at south buckhead - peachtree hills, peachtree park, garden hills, underwood hills. You can get a 2 or 3 bedroom for 650-750k they just go fast. I don’t want to buy the top but I do worry prices keep going due to low supply and I don’t want to get priced out.
what are your thoughts?
I've always wondered why so many of them are "earthy" asf and so similar like BLACK STONE, BLACK ROCK, OAK TREE, STAR WOOD, GREY STAR. I think I'll name my fund Purple River Capital or something.
I think Artemis and Ares are cool. I think Algebrus (something like that) or Spear Street Capital are kinda unique/cool
Wrong thread bruh…
Don’t quite understand the philosophy of treating your primary residence as an investment. If you felt like you’ve generated a sufficient return, would you then sell and seek to reinvest the proceeds or would you base the sale off of personal factors ?
Not necessarily looking at it as an investment but if I have to move for a job a few years down the line, I don’t want to be under water on the house.
Normally I’m pretty bullish. If you really need a house because y’all are getting engaged, do it. That being said, interest rates have creeped up from 3% to 5% in a matter of months. Someone who once qualified for a $500k loan now only qualifies for a $395k loan. This should take some wind out of the sails of the housing market. What it might do is just make it even more competitive in the lower end stuff (aka starter home). If you do buy a home, I would think twice before offering over asking, waiving a home inspection, or waiving an appraisal.
Bump
I personally think housing prices will go down a bit as the interest rates continue going up. This should obviously not be as severe as 08's given the different causes behind the recession. Increasing rates will certainly make houses / investment properties less affordable, which would drive the demand down. Assuming supply stays the same (which I believe most likely would happen), property owners who want to sell would reduce prices to attract buyer. I'm seeing a good amount of properties are reducing listing prices already in midwest.
Also with the first Fed rate bump, residential & commercial loan interest rates have gone up by 2%, which increase monthly debt repayment by around $1k if you were buying a $800k house. There would be 5 more potential Fed rate bumps this year if the inflation was still high, interest rates for resi/commercial loans would be even much higher, property prices would continue going down.
To answer your question, I would wait until next Fed meeting on May 3 to see what their confirmed plan regarding rates would be.
My two cents: Millennials are a massive demographic cohort and are still in prime home-buying age. If rates rise, the housing price may come down a bit, but affordability is going to be offset by the higher interest rates. Demand for housing will be strong unless we get a recessionary unemployment spike. I wouldn't want to wait around betting when that's going to happen. Some people have been waiting for a market crash since 2013 lol.
Long term you’ll be fine
short term - I hope all these fuckhead tiktok real estate gurus lose EVERYTHING. Fuck them. Anecdotally have been seeing a lot more supply in my market, With smaller price cuts (2-5k) happening to get the homes bumped to the top of the funnel again
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