2nd Year HF Analyst Contemplating MBA vs. IR Masters

I am currently a HF analyst (2.5 YOE) at a fund ($3-5bn) doing capital structure investing (equities/HY/ad-hoc distressed stuff). Due to my international background, I am waiting for my last attempt of getting the H1B work visa lottery in April 2023. The lottery is notorious for its low probability (<20% every attempt) so I may end up in a situation of student visa running off and being forced out the US after April.

Given the low chance of getting the lottery, my base case is now going back to school to extend the visa status and potentially participate in the lottery again after my graduation. I am a fundamental analyst now but I also have an interest in international relations and global macro. So I am considering to position my grad school period as a transition to macro research/investing if I need to tell the story in the future.

Given my time constraint (must have an grad school offer before mid 2023), I am now exploring different optionality. One path is applying to Masters in IR/Applied Econ at Columbia SIPA, Johns Hopkins SAIS or other policy school. I am also exploring the possibility of getting a M7 MBA.

My background: Mid 20s Asian male. Graduated from a Ivy with 3.5 GPA (Transfer). Haven't taken GMAT/GRE yet (verbal is tricky as English not my first language). Went straight to a tiny PE shop after graduation and then the current firm. Can get recs from an econ professor and a family office head.

A few questions in my mind now:

- What is my chance of getting into a M7 with my background?

- Are policy schools like SIPA/SAIS viewed positively in macro research/investing recruiting? Or is MBA more preferred in recruiting into macro? My goal is to at least secure a macro research job at a bank after graduation. More ideal if straight to macro HF.

My medium-term goal is to continue my career in the US so I am quite committed to make this work. I appreciate all your perspectives!