How much would a GMAT score in low 700s affect my chances at HSW?

I graduated from a target (think Penn, Duke, Dartmouth, Brown) with a 3.90 GPA and high SAT scores (99 percentile across all sections). Working at a recently founded independent advisory firm that isn't well-known (Dyal, M Klein, Foros type) but has solid senior leadership who have attended HBS. Based on my profile, am I a strong candidate for HBS, GSB, or Wharton? These would be the only schools I'd plan to apply to and possibly attend.

My only qualm at the moment is that I don't think I will score as highly on the GMAT as I did the SAT as I simply don't have the time to study. My most recent practice test, I scored a 720. Would my profile be enough to get over the hurdle or do I need to strive for a 750+ score? I've heard that acceptance rates tend to be higher due to declining biz school enrollment and a strong undergrad background but don't want to be overly presumptuous and underestimate the competition

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Your academic background checks the box, but without much more info on your current job it's hard to say for sure. Do you have any other 'unique' aspects about your application? 

At the end of the day, for white males in finance, the pool is incredibly competitive and you need every bit of an advantage you can get. I would say 720 is the bare minimum, and gives you a chance but not necessarily a strong one. I think aiming in the 740-750 range will help you out quite immensely, with diminishing returns as you continue to go up (although a big caveat this is just my opinion, I'm sure others will disagree). 

One last point, I think the declining business school enrollment argument may hold water for a lot of schools, but I think HSW will always have an extremely difficult admission process, doubly so for the finance sector. 

 

You definitely have a competitive profile for Wharton but will be tough for H/S (more so S). I'll add I took 2-3 practice tests before the GMAT and scored in the low 700s every time (highest 720). Took the test after and got a 760. Your odds go up significantly with a 750+, but you should be competitive for Wharton/CBS/Booth if you applied for those with a 730 or so. 

 

Acceptance rates are at record lows, not sure where you're reading about declining demand. Stanford GSB keeps breaking news records with it's selectivity over the past few years, with one small blip during COVID, and I can't even imagine how low the next acceptance rate will be when they announce it. Given the competitiveness, your GMAT is a tough sell unless you're an URM.

 

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