UVA CAS Econ (transfer) vs Emory Goizueta

Basically the title - I'm a current Emory admit and committed there, but I'm in-state for UVA.

So ik that Mcintire is obviously the best outcome (cheaper than Goizueta but slightly better placement), but the issue is that it has a 15% external transfer acceptance rate with an avg GPA of 3.87. On the other hand, UVA CAS econ has a whopping 40%, even higher for out-of-state, and the avg admitted GPA is 3.5.

I'm almost locked into UVA CAS econ (it's also $40k cheaper annually although cost is not a pressing issue) if I do apply after my freshman yr (where I anticipate a perfect 4.0), but is it worth choosing that over the bird in hand Goizueta (which is guaranteed)? I'm j worried that recruiters will think I'm a worse applicant or if the network and fairs for CAS econ students are worse. Keep in mind, if I do apply commerce and get rejected, I'm rejected from all of UVA since you can only choose one school to apply to. 

*P.S, although people have said in the past that the econ vs commerce difference at UVA is moot b/c commerce decisions come out after the end of SA recruiting, Mcintire pushed their app process up by a year so recruiters will know lol if your a reject. 

Thanks a lot!