Anyone on here have experience with fertilizer trading and specifically spread trading the complex? Seems like something that is going to see sustained vol moving forward with the confluence of factors from vol in the energy complex, vol in agriculture, and disruptions to world trade (market spins on an east/west of Suez axis and countries in the Middle East are major producers).
Been looking at the futures traded on CME (FOB Nola, FOB Middle East, FOB Egypt) and the Zhengzhou Exchange (Urea) and it feels like there is some opportunity to trade spreads there. On top of that, building synthetic indices that are linear combos of fertilizer feedstocks/commodities it is used to help grow and trading those baskets against fertilizer seems ripe for opportunity. A cursory glance has shown quite a few ways to create stationary spreads that can be traded as a mean reversion process. Liquidity is an obvious issue but with the right relationships on the banking/broker side I feel like that risk can be managed. Given we are talking futures I would say counterparty risk is minimal.
Pitfalls? Potential risks I am missing?
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