Gaddafi

I heard he was on TV a few minutes ago in Libya.

Well his voice was, at least.

Regardless, the guy is probably in deep trouble. If he manages to survive this, I think there's a good chance of him winning an all-expense-paid vacation to the Hague.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN2428958920110224

From what I"ve heard, it's unsubstantiated... so far.

He's already stated he'll "die a martyr" before he steps down. It's that, or flee to to Venezuela to be with his lover Chavez

Dude is done, whether it takes a day or a week. The sooner, the better I think, I could see oil going deep into the 200s if the Saudis lose their grip.

It was just a matter of time until someone would try to kill him. I mean, hiring Eastern European mercenaries to handle your dirty work against your own people, never ends well...

Goodbread, you see the BoA report? If one other major oil African oil producer goes down thanks to revolution, like say... Algeria... there will need to be a serious rampup in production and you'll gonna see Oil break 220.

This shit is scary man... Oil above 150 will be bad... 200... looks like commuting is going to be a very expensive process.

$200/barrel oil roughly translates to $6.50/gallon gas, depending on how refining margins react (will likely depend on how much LSC production goes offline). If the average American gets 27 mpg when they drive and drives 36 miles round trip on commuting, this would increase commuting costs by about $4-5/day- maybe for one year while the Middle East recovers. For someone earning $16-20/hour, this works out to an extra 15 minutes of work every day.

Terrible news for the rural poor, but not a big deal for the middle class. Consumer balance sheets can take the hit.

IP,

If you're talking a ~40 mile round trip commute, that's a round trip between where I live and where my parents live. If I were to do that daily, I would need to fill my car up ~2-3 times a month if I used it soley for commuting. You double that from 40 to 80 miles, round trip, and you're talking every 3-4 days. What about the people who work in NYC that don't live near a bus or train line who are forced to drive lengthier commutes. Oh, and my favorite is the costs incurred by NJ Transit on their desiel fuel lines.

While your math might be right, HPM is right in that you're not factoring the expected increases across the board to commuters and non-commuters alike. Gas over $4/Gallon is a psychological barrier that people do not want to see crossed. At $4/Gallon, you will start to see the prices of shipped goods go up, and if oil continues to increase, that's going to continue to eat into the costs of living. At $5/Gallon, that's going to have a huge impact on Food prices. At $6... looks like I'm gonnna start home brewing again.

Yeah Frieds, I thought Nomura had come up with that number (http://tinyurl.com/47plx92). In any case, that's pretty scary. If you were to extrapolate that kind of increase in prices to serious unrest in Saudi, we're talking $300-$500 oil which is basically instant demand destruction and a guaranteed double-dip recession. The coming months will be very interesting, even though I suspect Saudi Arabia will get out of this scotch-free.

Word on the street is the US may tap into SPR(Strategic Petro Reserve) if anything happens in saudi.

SPR is at aabout 757 MM BBL. It can pipe barrels at 200-300k Bbl/D.

Not sure but if Gaddafi got shot and did die..why would that be bearish? All signs point to 100+ crude but why did we have such a sharp sell off near the close.

It would represent a slow-down in the turmoil. Libyan oil would be up and running fairly shortly and the risk of contagion with regards to unrest probably recedes. Oil is fairly priced a 100+ in the current situation IMO, but the move to 120 was definitely tied to the Libyan crisis.