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October 31, 2026
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make me a market on the Feb 3 jobless claims and we'll go from there :P
whats your bet for feb 3rd?
How about if you were OK using a proxy(gold or other) ?
Sure let's hear an idea if you have one.
couple proxies...
short discretionary retailers (not luxury, but stuff that lower income/middle class people shop for but don't really need and is higher price point for these people)
short auto manufacturers (not luxury)
...
They have non-farm payroll contracts on the CME, but I can't imagine that they trade much. It's tough to structure a long-term trade that would capture rising unemployment only (I'm assuming domestic), but perhaps a long/short pair where you are long low-end retailers (Dollar General type joints) and short mid-tier retailers (mall brands, Target, big box) could get you good exposure.
Other plays could be structured around continued easing / loose monetary policies since unemployment is one of the most important indicators that the Fed follows, such as betting that the short end of the curve doesn't move by selling options.
Thanks interesting idea. I'm pretty restricted on trading, not sure I can write naked
Can you short minorities anywhere??
hahahaha
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