It is looking more and more likely that the US is going to be intervening in Syria, according to a recent report. This would include a couple of specific actions, including but presumably not limited to:
According to the official, the intervention scenario calls for the establishment of a buffer zone on the Turkish border, in order to receive Syrian refugees. The Red Cross would then provide the civilians humanitarian aid, before NATO crews would arrive from Turkey and join the efforts.The measure would pave the way for the US to declare an aerial blockade on Syria.
The intercession is to be modeled after NATO's efforts in Kosovo, which brought an end to the Serbian control of the region. NATO's plan of action included prolonged aerial shelling.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4194506…
What does this implicate as good investment opportunities in the region, in the wider area that may be affected by the war, the area that may be affected by the outcome of the war and in the wider war as it adjusts to a downfall of the syrian regime or a further repression of the people there? What scenarios are you foreseeing?
Clearly earnings growth is key to equity market performance, so I am seeing this as being a play that will further isolate Iran and cut it off from the mediteranean sea. They recently sent 15,000 troops to Syria, and have been funding their operations and using them as a means for funneling money around the world for a number of years. ( http://www.infowars.com/latest-iran-deploys-15000… ), so I see this as implicating a short position on whatever assets the Iranians had been funneling their surplus oil profits in to. You could probably also go long whatever suppliers there are of missiles to the Air force, though that probably wouldn't be a major spike.
I'd love to look over the newly formed regimes in the other arab countries and see what they are doing now, and what has benefited from their rise. I'd also be curious of how much this isolates Iran, though it may be less substantial given that they have already cut off supplies to Europe and given that they can no longer get payment in USD.
Thoughts?
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