20 Comments
 

You were right that was a dumb question.

IMO now (not necessarily today) is a great time to buy, things are being way oversold. Does anyone trade FAS (3X leveraged bull financial ETF)? Was thinking about starting a new thread for this but mise well ask it here. Would love to hear about trading strategies for this ETF which is being clobbered right now.

 
Best Response

@jbs I hesitate for a couple of reasons. First, I was hearing Lehman-esque capital emergency rumors before any of the major wire services started reporting on them. You can bet your ass I wasn't going to be the first person to float that notion (publicly). That was a decision Patrick and I made together. So, in a sense they could be close to a Lehman-type liquidity crisis, but their situation is closer to Bear's (in my view) because the gov't would never allow them to go under. They'd be bought out by someone (who would buy them presents a very interesting debate).

If the stock drops below $5 (entirely possible if the trend continues), a whole raft of new problems come to the fore, not the least of which would be the non-marginability of the stock. There would be forced selling and net equity would be further destroyed.

I'm not saying any of this is happening, but both Bear and Lehman swore till their dying day that they were fine liquidity-wise -- until they weren't. The potential liabilities BAC is facing are absolutely staggering, and there's a lot of toxic shit on their balance sheet. Of course none of us wants to see a repeat of 2008, but it's foolish to think that it can't happen.

Unless I've missed something, BAC can just file for more TARP money, so that's a potential solution. But that's not gonna do the stock price any favors.

 

BAC, JPM, and C some of the biggest winners on the Dow today. Them alongside with the entire commodity spectrum like crude oil, soybeans, corn, etc.

All before the FOMC meeting at 2:15pm EST....

Translation: Helicopter Ben to the rescue.......

 

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