IS THIS THE END OF FINANCE ?? WHAT SHOULD WE BE GOING INTO?? (ADVICE FOR UNDERGRAD)
I recently got my first internship at a pretty good bank after working my ass off for it, and now im realizing it seems that this industry i have chosen is nothing like it was. I mean, i knew that going in, but there is no fucking money to be made on the sell-side. absolutely none. so what advice do you have? im still young so i have time i guess, but do I try to switch to a buy side firm doing global equities or fixed income, or do i scrap finance and do tech or some shit? I really would like to prosper, and it looks like the music is coming to a stop with the next recession around the corner. any advice from experienced people would be appreciated.
recession?
there seems to be some opinions that 2020 could be a recession. im not an economist but is still a business cycle no? things have been good for a while and id imagine it cant continue as such indefinitely
Actually the business cycle is dead. Many countries have experienced 30 plus years without a recession.
There are economic models that can eliminate the recession.
All modern US recession (really since the oil embargoes in the ‘70s) have been caused by the federal reserve fighting inflation. With inflation more anchored now those recessions should be eliminated unless the fed does something stupid. The federal reserve is talking about hiking rates past the neutral level. That is the kind of thing that may cause a minor recession. If they do that when bank balance sheets are fairly safe it will result in growth potential hitting -.5% to 1%. A minor blip. Then reverse course when they see the economy slowing too much and back into moderate growth.
2020 recession is possible but depends on fed doing an unforced error.
This didnt age well...
this kid is fried
lay off the cocaine
So you did a single internship in S&T, are not even licensed to trade product and have reached the sweeping conclusion that S&T is dead? Yet, thousands of men and women with decades of experiences continue to show up work on the sell side at BBs making hundreds of thousands a year, instead of evacuating the business as your alarmist theory would suggest...
I may have exaggerated but my goal was to get people to chime in. You seem to be well informed, what are your thoughts? I've heard those left at the banks are the ones who didnt have the skill to move to the buy side to be quite frank. Im not very experienced so your opinion if you actually work in the role would be interesting.
“Finance is dead. Long live finance.”
That is the best explanation of the current situation.
People will make great livings in finance. But the art of it is gone. There’s nothing interested left in it. The quants and passive money took out the art of trading. PE models were invented 30 years ago. The junk bond is 40 years old. The risks arbitrage guys are boring now. Central banks have largely figured out how to eliminate the recession. Bank balance sheets are boring. The old investment banking culture is gone from what I can tell. I mean people use to really love being a Lehman or bear or Goldman guy. Those days are over.
Finance is akin to being a highly paid special now.
Not sure tech is any better now.
Straight math skills. Learn coding, ML/AI, and cryptography. Focus on these technical skills now, (any firm regardless of the industry are looking for these) and they are much harder to pick up outside of school with no structured learning environment. Once you know these, all the finance stuff is easy and can be picked up in a matter of days of studying online.
Totally agree!
Try online marketing rather than finance
Yup, agree with SteveBannon. There are plenty of opportunities in finance, you should have to rebrand yourself and broaden your skills with quantitative ones (specifically coding & data analytics). There is a high demand for people with these type of technical skills, so study up and get better.
Only one advice: learn coding.
Weird... their seemed to be tons of people making a killing at the bank I interned at. Did you get to spend any time shadowing people in a front office role?
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