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base metals yes . i think the rally has made a lot of ground post covid . personally found it spectacular .
however do think that fundamentals have taken a bit of a backseat and macro , fiscal / monetary policy in the driving seat having pushed these metals higher . what i can say now is that business has improved considerably since last year . industrial / manufacturing businesses are pumping at the moment and demand conditions have never been so good . this partly because of supply chains being drained / run lean over 2020 but what we see is that whilst countries around the world are in various lockdown restrictions , most / if not all industry is working full time . if we can see covid behind us and start opening up the broader economies and get people driving , flying , spending more , we could start to see further gains .
furthermore hard to discount fact that we are about to embark on a massive new energy transformation . this will have huge implications for demand of all metals .
do i think we heading into a supercycle now? no , i think what we going through now is a cyclical bull cycle but post near term boom and bust , you will see large demand growth across the whole base complex that could end up being a supercycle .
if i had to choose one it would be cu . cu is king and fundamentally very strong , nearby deficits to persist , mkt is in backwardation and should run a leg higher maybe even surpassing its previous ath . furthermore cu will be integral in green energy transition we embarking on for the forseeable future .
also a big fan of ni + co but they have challenging supply / demand dynamics in the near term .
loser ? probably pick zn .
on derivatives - both , book is mainly to manage physical price risk / spread risk but we can take spec positions as well .
Hi!
First if all, thank you for the Q&A - this is exactly what I needed at the moment!
I have a strong resume and am pursuing a master‘s degree - but I still have no Idea what to work as after graduating.. and recently I stumbled upon commodity trading and thought it is fascinating. Here are my questions, I‘d be very grateful if you reply to either one of those (or all of them!)
1. Was your career path linear / did you plan to end up in the metals area?
2. What skills would you say are your bread and butter at work? Is it coding-heavy or is it still more on the fundamental side?
3. What would be the best options for someone interested in commodities and derivatives to get a look into the industry (besides this Q&A)?
4. Any book recommendations?
5. Is there a moral dilemma in the commodities sector? In my research I‘ve stumbled upon many documentaries about pollution by (e.g. Glencore‘s) factories in third world countries - does this affect your life in any way?
I hope my questions are not completely out of place - I‘m from the math side and have a lot to catch up to, but thats why I‘m here.
Thank you in advance!
Loving the answers so far