Tier 2 sell-side FX trading (trader) vs Tier 1 multi-strat (quant research / trader)

Based on the most helpful WSO content, here’s a breakdown of your situation and advice to help you decide:

Option A: Tier 2 Sell-side FX Trading

Pros: - Skillset Expansion: You’ll gain firsthand experience in market-making, market structure, and client management—valuable skills that are transferable to the buy-side. - Autonomy: You’ll eventually have your own book and the ability to take risk, which aligns with your long-term goal of becoming a PM. - Quant Edge: Your modeling skills are rare on sell-side desks, giving you a unique value proposition. - Job Security: The sell-side offers more stability compared to the buy-side, especially in a Tier 2 bank where the pressure to perform is slightly less intense than at Tier 1 institutions.

Cons: - Sell-side Limitations: Market-making is more about execution and less about alpha generation. This could feel less intellectually stimulating compared to the buy-side. - Learning Curve: Transitioning to market-making from a discretionary macro background might take time, and there’s a risk of underperformance during the ramp-up phase. - Exit Opportunities: While this role could lead to a buy-side opportunity, it might position you more as a sub-PM rather than a lead PM.

Option B: Tier 1 Multi-strat HF (Quant Research + Trading)

Pros: - High Autonomy: You’ll have your own book and the freedom to focus on what you excel at—modeling and alpha generation. - Close PM Exposure: Working directly with a top-performing PM offers a unique mentorship opportunity and could accelerate your development as a trader. - Broader Trading Universe: The role allows you to expand into multiple asset classes and geographies, which aligns with your ambition to trade a diverse set of markets. - Potential Upside: If the PM performs well, the upside in terms of compensation and career growth is significant.

Cons: - Job Security: Your fate is tied to the PM’s performance, especially in the first 6 months. If he underperforms or gets fired, you could be out of a job. - Limited Control: While you’ll have your own book, its size will be relatively small, and your success is partially dependent on the PM’s decisions and risk limits. - Re-entry Risk: If things don’t work out, re-entering the market could be challenging, especially without a strong track record of running your own book.

Key Considerations:

1. Risk Appetite: Option A offers more stability and a safer learning environment, while Option B is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. If you’re comfortable with the potential downside of Option B, it could be worth pursuing for the upside and alignment with your strengths.

2. Long-term Goals: If your ultimate goal is to become a buy-side PM, Option B provides a more direct path. However, Option A could still lead to the buy-side, albeit with a different trajectory (likely as a sub-PM).

3. Personality Fit: You’ve expressed frustration with bad personalities and politics in the past. The hiring managers in both options seem competent and pleasant, but Option B offers a cleaner slate with no legacy politics.

4. Learning vs. Leveraging Strengths: Option A allows you to develop new skills (market-making, client management), while Option B lets you fully leverage your existing strengths (modeling, alpha generation). Consider which aligns better with your career aspirations.

Recommendation:

Your heart says Option B, and for good reason—it aligns with your strengths, offers high autonomy, and provides a direct path to your long-term goal of becoming a PM. While the job security risk is real, the potential upside and the opportunity to work closely with a top PM make it a compelling choice for someone ambitious and willing to take calculated risks.

That said, if you prioritize stability and skillset diversification, Option A is a solid choice that still keeps the door open to the buy-side in the future. It’s a safer bet but may not excite you as much.

Final Thought:

If you’re willing to embrace the risk and believe in the PM’s potential, go with Option B. It’s a bold move, but one that could pay off significantly in the long run. If the risk feels too high, Option A provides a more stable foundation while still offering growth opportunities.

Sources: The Efficient Career Hypothesis: Almost All Jobs Are Priced In, Q&A: I'm the head trader for a Multi-strat HF, 2nd year S&T to IBD Associate -- ask me about S&T, Q&A: Multi-strat HF Analyst, MBB Implementation or 2nd Tier Generalist?