Hello ios3504,

What do you trade? Physical or paper? Are you in NYC or TX? What do you think helped you the most to become a top trader?

Thanks for doing this AMA.

 

What is your educational (undergrad, mba, cfa)? What is your background (did you work somewhere else before the energy firm)? What were some keys to your successful performance?

 

You said ask anything, so here goes:

  1. You're on the game show 'Let's Make a Deal'. Assume you pick curtain #2 to win the car and they show you the goat behind curtain #1, do you switch to curtain #3 or hold curtain #2 when they give you the option to switch?

  2. When do you think computers will take over for energy trading?

  3. Assuming you are in Texas, how racist would you describe your co-workers? The perception from the northeast is that Texas is still overtly racist in the office.

 

Go on an energy trading floor and tell me what percentage is white, and if white, what percentage is American. Assuming you are genuinely curious and not making an underhanded swipe, the perception in NYC about pretty much anything energy can pretty safely be assumed to be inaccurate.

 
DickFuld:

You said ask anything, so here goes:

1. You're on the game show 'Let's Make a Deal'. Assume you pick curtain #2 to win the car and they show you the goat behind curtain #1, do you switch to curtain #3 or hold curtain #2 when they give you the option to switch?

Is that question from the movie "21"?

 
Bschoolnoob:
DickFuld:

You said ask anything, so here goes:

1. You're on the game show 'Let's Make a Deal'. Assume you pick curtain #2 to win the car and they show you the goat behind curtain #1, do you switch to curtain #3 or hold curtain #2 when they give you the option to switch?

Is that question from the movie "21"?

Never saw that movie. It's the world's most famous conditional probability problem. The Monty Hall problem.
 
DickFuld:

You said ask anything, so here goes:

1. You're on the game show 'Let's Make a Deal'. Assume you pick curtain #2 to win the car and they show you the goat behind curtain #1, do you switch to curtain #3 or hold curtain #2 when they give you the option to switch?

I'd really like to know why you must switch to curtain #3. I've never understood Marilyn vos Savant's explanation nor anyone else's. Any probability geniuses here that can explain this at the level of a 3rd grader?

 
MRCR:
DickFuld:

You said ask anything, so here goes:

1. You're on the game show 'Let's Make a Deal'. Assume you pick curtain #2 to win the car and they show you the goat behind curtain #1, do you switch to curtain #3 or hold curtain #2 when they give you the option to switch?

I'd really like to know why you must switch to curtain #3. I've never understood Marilyn vos Savant's explanation nor anyone else's. Any probability geniuses here that can explain this at the level of a 3rd grader?

The key is that the person revealing what's behind the door already knows what's behind all three doors.

Assume the car is behind door #1.

If you initially choose door number 1, by switching to door #2 or 3, you lose.

If you initially choose door number 2, he can only open door #3. If you switch to door #1, you win.

If you initially choose door number 3, he can only open door #2. If you switch to door #1, you win.

So, by switching doors, you have a 2/3 chance of winning. If you did not switch, you would only win 1/3 of the time. When you switch doors, you can only lose when your initial guess was correct (1/3) compared to staying where you can only win when your initial guess is correct (1/3).

 

Would be interested in the analyst position but I probably don't have the education/work background you're looking for, nor do I know what R-stat is.

That being said, if I were interested in getting into trading, what would I have to do to have a shot coming from a M. Acc program? I assume that knowing SQL and R-stat would be important?

 

Might want to move this to the Trader's Train forum, probably get a lot more hits. Right @AndyLouis ?

"You stop being an asshole when it sucks to be you." -IlliniProgrammer "Your grammar made me wish I'd been aborted." -happypantsmcgee
 

Which firm or which type of firm?

You trade energy but from what it seems you're trading on the paper / derivative side, not the physical. Which products are you trading?

Is the skill set unique to paper or does it carry over to physical as well?

What is your "story" and what roles did you work in beforehand?

What was your degree in?

Where/what region did you go to school in?

What drew you to energy?

Somebody mentioned people being racist in the office, demonstrating almost an equal amount of ignorance and prejudice as the people he is asking about. Aside from that, how would you compare the cultures on various trade floors - between Houston/London/NYC/Singapore, from what you've seen? Between firms?

How much time do you spend out of the office, and what are you doing during that time?

How is the work/life balance?

What is the pay like?

What would you say is the best way for junior people to succeed in this industry specifically?

Would you agree with claims that many hedge funds and other more "financial" players (banks, hedge funds, some PE shops, and particularly some research shops) really have no understanding of the markets? On that note, to what degree would you say the energy markets are misunderstood?

What are your thoughts concerning the recent discussions over whether or not banks should be allowed to participate in physical energy markets?

Where do you see the new opportunities opening up in energy markets?

What are your thoughts on claims that the potential of horizontal drilling and fracking is extremely overblown?

How important is a second language in this industry?

What international opportunities have you been exposed to?

What do you think are the main things to understand concerning the drivers of the energy markets?

I'll have some follow-ups most likely as well. Thanks for taking the time to answer all these!

 

Supposedly John Arnold shut down his fund because of fracking as it increased the amount of natural gas in the market, therefore there were no huge price spikes.

What products are you trading and what is profitable at the moment??

alpha currency trader wanna-be
 
watersign:

Supposedly John Arnold shut down his fund because of fracking as it increased the amount of natural gas in the market, therefore there were no huge price spikes.

What products are you trading and what is profitable at the moment??

Supposing you are on crack...Seeing as in 2/3 his last years, John A made money specifically shorting the market for size based on production and shale growth highly doubt he did so.

Dodd-Frank and position limits made it hard for John A to keep performing the level he was and to match the likes of Soros style funds who trade 100s of different instruments in various offices, plus he wanted to save the world ala bill gates.

 

so you're saying shale growth helped him make his billions because he saw it coming -_-

marcellus_wallace:
watersign:

Supposedly John Arnold shut down his fund because of fracking as it increased the amount of natural gas in the market, therefore there were no huge price spikes.

What products are you trading and what is profitable at the moment??

Supposing you are on crack...Seeing as in 2/3 his last years, John A made money specifically shorting the market for size based on production and shale growth highly doubt he did so.

Dodd-Frank and position limits made it hard for John A to keep performing the level he was and to match the likes of Soros style funds who trade 100s of different instruments in various offices, plus he wanted to save the world ala bill gates.

alpha currency trader wanna-be
 

By "energy firm" do you mean a CPO/CTA or a producer/supplier that has economic exposures it needs to hedge? If the latter, how is your role divided between discretionary trading/speculation as opposed to hedging?

Broadly, what's your strategy? Are you making money through spread bets, providing liquidity/market making, swing trading, or longer-term directional bets on prices?

 

I'm very interested in the position. Although my interest in finance spreads across several field, Energy (natural gas in particular) is the sector that most interests me. If you'll PM me your email or linkedin contact, I can send you my info.

 

Hi!

I have my MSc to do before applying for graduate programs in ABCDs and commodity houses, that is to say two years of studies + one year internship. I have already done an internship as a market analyst in a french mining company (eramet). What kind of internship I should do during my one year internship in order to be ready to apply for the graduate programs at BP, total, EDF, trafigura...? I thought about doing 6 months in a corporate finance company in the oil and gaz department and then 6 months in a little commodity house (no name brand and no graduate program)

Thank you! JSM

 

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