Applying the 80/20 rule to COVID

Since March 2020, the world hasn't been the same. 

Initially, I thought lockdowns made sense because we knew nothing about how dangerous the virus was.

However, now, it is blatantly obvious that the virus is not that dangerous for most people. 

80% of deaths are caused by 20% of the infected patients (the vulnerable ones).

So, instead of fucking up the global economy and social lives of billions, why not get the vulnerable to shield (stay home)? The majority of cases are asymptomatic anyway, so it beats me why people panic so much over rising cases when the risk of serious disease to the average individual is so low.

A common argument is that younger members of the family can pass it on to the vulnerable, to which my response is:

1 Stay home and shield if that's you.

2 Follow these "measures" when interacting with the vulnerable at home (a little far-fetched, I agree, yet it's possible). Still more convenient as a whole than asking billions to self-isolate. 

Elon Musk, Jordan Belfort, and Brian DeChesare agree on this too.

I'm not saying the virus is a hoax. It is very real. However, the cure has been worse than the disease. Thoughts?

Comments (55)

 
Jan 5, 2021 - 10:15am

 death isn't everybody's primary concern

heister:

Look at all these wannabe richies hating on an expensive salad.

https://arthuxtable.com/
 
Most Helpful
Jan 5, 2021 - 10:20am

wolfofthecity

 

Elon Musk, Jordan Belfort, and Brian DeChesare agree on this too.

Oh well that's good. Is that the same Elon Musk who said we'd have zero Covid cases by April 2020? Do we ask Tony Fauci his thoughts on how to build a driverless car, trade penny stocks, and M&A advisory? No? Then why should we care what these three think about pandemic containment?

What none of you "cure is worse than disease" people deal with is that our hospitals are already overwhelmed despite the continued social behavior modifications. If "80%" of the population goes back to normal life, what happens in those hospitals? Do you have any idea of the average mortality rate of an untreated severe Covid case?

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression
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Jan 5, 2021 - 10:34am

But vaccinating the vulnerable so restrictions can be eased is exactly what we are doing? I don't follow this or the OP tbh - we are taking steps to shield the most vulnerable so lesser vulnerable people can return to normal. OP is saying we should be doing something that we are in fact doing and you are saying we are not doing something we are in fact doing. 
 

Hospital capacity is a concern but thankfully the widespread "overwhelming" hasn't occurred like we thought it would in March. Recall GM being ordered to make tens of thousands of ventilators and Navy hospital ships being sent to NY. Most capacity issues have been localized and temporary thankfully, but you need to take steps to make sure it stays that way of course. 

Array
 
Jan 5, 2021 - 11:32am

PeterMBA2018

But vaccinating the vulnerable so restrictions can be eased is exactly what we are doing? I don't follow this or the OP tbh - we are taking steps to shield the most vulnerable so lesser vulnerable people can return to normal. OP is saying we should be doing something that we are in fact doing and you are saying we are not doing something we are in fact doing. 

OP is not talking about vaccinations, he's repeating the same unserious plan to "go back to normal" while keeping the highly vulnerable inside. AKA, unwilling to make even the slightest sacrifice for your fellow citizens. He also suggests taking precautionary measures while interacting with the vulnerable at home (what?) and misunderstands the 80/20 rule (while the superspreaders are most likely driving most transmissions, there is no way to predict who will become a superspreader, and it's certainly not just the "vulnerable")

Everyone who keeps parroting the oversimplified "cure is worse than the disease!" line needs to state affirmatively that they're fine if their parent or loved one dies from this, as long as they don't miss out on any more bar nights in their 20s. Because that's what you're indirectly signing other families up for.

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression
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  • Incoming Analyst in AM - Other
Jan 5, 2021 - 10:50am

I don't understand. Since when do we trust the all-mighty government to make all decisions for us?

I understand mask mandates and social distancing measures. However, the shut downs and stay-at-home mandates are absolute overstepping by the gov. It's insane to me how people so casually give up their liberty to make decisions for themselves because "the government has our best interests at heart". That's a terrible precedent to set. What occurs if in 20 years we have a Gavin Newsome as our president? Really? Best interests at heart? Bull.

 
Jan 5, 2021 - 12:34pm

There is no silver bullet here. Europe's approach is on one end of the spectrum (save people and let the economy die), whilst the US is at the other (try and save the economy to a certain extent but let people die). The thing about looking at current statistics of death or hospitalization is that they are true. Most people will be fine and it seems absurd to kill the economy for something like this. Yet, the more people get infected, the more chances the virus has of mutating. We not have a much more transmissible strain which will mean more infections and more deaths (even if the death rate remains the same, infecting more people in a given time period means more people die in that time period). The risk here is that a growing number of infections will lead to more and more variants, including one with a higher death rate. Then people will be truly fucked and wished we had quashed this sooner. Hopefully the vaccine will also be effective against this new strain, but we need to sit tight for now. 

 
Jan 5, 2021 - 12:49pm

The Pharma Guy

There is no silver bullet here. Europe's approach is on one end of the spectrum (save people and let the economy die), whilst the US is at the other (try and save the economy to a certain extent but let people die). 

Most of Europe, yes. Sweden tried the approach advocated by OP, which was roundly celebrated by right wing media, and has turned out to be an utter failure. Death rates of 4x their neighbors, similar unemployment losses, and now they've implemented lockdown restrictions like the rest of the Europe. Like you said, there is no magic bullet here besides biding our time for the vaccine.

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression
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  • VP in IB - Ind
Jan 5, 2021 - 1:00pm

I would love to fast forward 40 years to another public health phenomenon and see what these same fussy entitled brats have to say when Gen AD are bitching about keeping them locked up or that nature should cull the weak and move on...

 
Jan 5, 2021 - 1:02pm

Also, screaming "I'm not scared of death!" is an extremely easy thing to say when you're not imminently facing it. I was laid up in the ICU for 10 days a decade ago and given a 50% chance of walking out alive. A full life potentially cut short in my 20s. I can assure you I was "scared of death".

20 years ago we lost 3,000 people on 9/11, and have reminders in our daily life of that terrible day ever since, and vow to "Never Forget". Now, we are losing in excess of a 9/11 a day, and a large portion of this country (many of whom are "pro-life") view that as an acceptable cost of doing business so that the rest of us can get back to normal. Shameful.

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression
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Jan 5, 2021 - 1:11pm

Dear god the comparison between deaths from a mass murder event and deaths from disease need to stop. I have no idea why people think this is remotely comparable. 
 

Something like 5m people die every two years in the US - do we say there's a another Holocaust every two years? Of course not. 
 

This hysterical attitude is so unhelpful. I support NPIs to control spread and even volunteered to participate in vaccine trials back in the summer (was not selected). But ignoring negative effects of controlling people by government edict need to be acknowledged. Same with overstating the danger of the disease for certain population. 

Array
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Jan 5, 2021 - 1:38pm

What this fails acknowledge is the entire point of having lockdowns in the first place: not to overwhelm the Healthcare system.

Say that we didn't lockdown and just expected everything to be normal, its just another flu though a lot more contagious. A 10% hospitalization rate combined with its viralbility would overwhelm the Healthcare system quickly which is undesirable.

Why? We know that COVID has a mortality rate of ~1.5% or so so far. However, that's not its true mortality rate in every environment - if someone isn't treated, that mortality rate goes up as well to a significant degree.

We locked-down for the explicit purpose of slowing down infection rates until a vaccine came out. We're at that point in about a few months at the latest.

Tldr: we locked down to slow the crowding of the Healthcare system because that let's us most effectively treat COVID patients and thus have a very low death rate, relatively.

 
Jan 6, 2021 - 5:46am

Last year exposed how easy it is for people to give up their freedoms.

The issue is that everyone thinks this loss of freedom is temporary but it will become permanent.

Those who sacrifice freedom for safety will get neither.

Lots of people are ignoring the fact that over 99.9% of people survive Covid. In fact if you look at the stats, the death rate for people in the US in 2020 was the same as previous years, essentially the same amount of people died in 2020 as with any other year despite the virus. 

The best way to survive Covid is to be fit and healthy. However the lockdowns have closed gyms and many restaurants that serve healthy food. 

Unfortunately, society is filled with weak men who just listen to the media and can't think for themselves. 

It is also pretty clear that scientists and medical professionals used this pandemic to make a lot of money. People talk about big corporations and big tech but we should also expose BIG SCIENCE. A lot of scientists have zero emotional intelligence or any empathy for the suffering of small businesses. This whole pandemic is just a big REVENGE of the NERDS fantasy with these nerd & virgin scientists finally having the power and authority they crave to punish society for not giving them attention when they were in high school and college.

 
Jan 6, 2021 - 6:03am

WorldsGr8estKid

Last year exposed how easy it is for people to give up their freedoms.

The issue is that everyone thinks this loss of freedom is temporary but it will become permanent.

Those who sacrifice freedom for safety will get neither.

Lots of people are ignoring the fact that over 99.9% of people survive Covid. In fact if you look at the stats, the death rate for people in the US in 2020 was the same as previous years, essentially the same amount of people died in 2020 as with any other year despite the virus. 

The best way to survive Covid is to be fit and healthy. However the lockdowns have closed gyms and many restaurants that serve healthy food. 

Unfortunately, society is filled with weak men who just listen to the media and can't think for themselves. 

It is also pretty clear that scientists and medical professionals used this pandemic to make a lot of money. People talk about big corporations and big tech but we should also expose BIG SCIENCE. A lot of scientists have zero emotional intelligence or any empathy for the suffering of small businesses. This whole pandemic is just a big REVENGE of the NERDS fantasy with these nerd & virgin scientists finally having the power and authority they crave to punish society for not giving them attention when they were in high school and college.

According to the CDC, excess deaths due to covid are extremely statistically significant (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm).

The covid survival rate is definitely not higher than 99.9%.

While Gyms do contribute to health, it is a very far stretch to argue that they would save lives in this pandemic. 

The "BIG SCIENCE" rant gives me strong tinfoil hat vibes. 

But hey, I'm happy you are enjoying the InfoWars subscription you got for Christmas. Good for you bro

 
Jan 10, 2021 - 10:54pm

but we should also expose BIG SCIENCE. A lot of scientists have zero emotional intelligence or any empathy for the suffering of small businesses. This whole pandemic is just a big REVENGE of the NERDS fantasy with these nerd & virgin scientists finally having the power and authority they crave to punish society for not giving them attention when they were in high school and college.

This is the most crackpot shit I have ever heard in my life

 
Jan 6, 2021 - 6:56am

Moshe Strugano (Attorney - Moshe Strugano and Co Law firm) says we need to work on our immunity and if we have good immunity we can protect ourselves, our family and our society too.

 
Jan 6, 2021 - 12:41pm

It's deplorable how the government handled the shutdowns the past few months. Walk down the streets of any town or city (especially NY), and you'll see McDonalds, Burger Kings, and Chipotles all open for business. Then look right next door and you'll see a small family restaurant with the lights out and the door locked because Big Brother has forbidden them from opening up until the pandemic is over. How does that make any sense? McDonalds isn't any better at preventing the spread than a mom and pop shop. And won't the virus spread more slowly if more stores were open so people don't concentrate in a few open areas? This whole lockdown was stupid and immoral.

The point others made about overwhelming the hospitals doesn't make sense either given what the OP posted. Almost all healthy people who get COVID will never have to go to a hospital in the first place. It's only high risk people who will need the hospital, and this is the demographic that we are staying should stay home to not get infected. The healthy should be allowed to roam free with masks and businesses should've never closed.

 
Jan 6, 2021 - 1:20pm

If hospitals are at max capacity currently, WITH lockdown measures in place, how can you deduce that those who need support from hospitals will be able to receive treatment if we LOOSEN restrictions?

 

All of the hot zones have expanding ICU wards, shutting down hospital capacity to treat sufficiently and care for BAU patients. This is the concern.

 
Jan 6, 2021 - 1:18pm

No lockdown is desirable, nobody is disputing that. The approach in the US has been horrific, along with many leading countries - this does not prove that lockdown mechanisms overall are a useful tool or not, it's a tougher issue. If our government wants to decide on a lockdown, ruining businesses and lives in the near term, they must provide the support and stimulus to float their populace. Unfortunately we are exiting an administration that decided to ignore the global concern early on (and currently), impose lockdowns, and forget to float their populace. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Not trying to make this political; however, there are clear reasons why lockdown has been such a lukewarm measure, creating justified negative reactions.

 

What I do find surprising is that in a forum made up exclusively of finance and consulting professionals; where we are supposed to be experts in data and thinking about the broader picture, we get hung up on single data points.

 

"But look at the death figures, they aren't that bad, we should open up!" 

 

There is genuine math, science and statistics supporting lockdown to prevent overloading hospitals, (which will negatively impact survival rates, and survival rates of non-covid related issues that hospitals will no longer have sufficient resources to tend to), as well as reducing spread to mitigate mutation (as seen in population and case dense areas of Africa and the UK).

 

Death is an emotional statistic, think broader here. This sucks for everyone, but at least you're just feeling overworked and underwhelmed in your bed/ living room, not overworked and underwhelmed on the front line trying to save people who think the reason for their intubation is government conspiracy.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 6, 2021 - 11:12pm

I know ill get monkey shit with from people with a stick up their ass, but after the first month of the virus I frankly stopped giving a fuck and have been living my life like normal (as has my entire social circle). We all got covid so now its not even something we need to worry about. Live your life normally (go to bars, parties, whatever), and then avoid old people, simple as that. I'm not putting my life on hold.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 7, 2021 - 4:15pm

which will last more than long enough, retard. even if I get covid again idgaf, I was asymptomatic.

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