Are electric cars the future?

My genuine answer would be yes. FCA ceo Sergio Marchionne, however, would answer no, and I found his opinion extremely interesting.


FCA loses $20,000 on every electric version of its 500-model subcompact sold in the U.S., Sergio Marchionne said. Battery-powered models should be marketed based on consumer demand and not depend on incentives, he said.

In fact, consumer demand is a major issue according to a Bloomberg analyst as well:
“Companies are committed to electric cars, but there is little evidence that there is a lot of consumer demand for it,” said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence

Do we really want electric cars? No one doubts that the future will be electric, but when will it come? Will we ever turn that "future" into "present"?

From Bloomberg

 

Electric self-driving cars are the future

"FCA loses $20,000 on every electric version of its 500-model subcompact sold in the U.S., Sergio Marchionne said. "

Sounds like sergio should learn a better way to make and sell electric cars then. I'm also not particularly surprised that a company that lags behind others in the electric vehicle market (note: i don't really much about the auto industry so correct me if I'm off base) would make statements downplaying electric vehicles.

 

Even the best lose money on every electric vehicle produced, for now. Literally every manufacturer producing EVs, including Tesla, loses money on each car made. Some people think battery costs will decline enough to allow for a profit at some point down the road. But some of the studies I've seen done on the topic would suggest that pack costs are unlikely to decline enough. We'll see what the future brings but I think manufacturers will be hard pressed to make EVs economic.

"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipation of others". - John Maynard Keynes
 

And then Afghanistan will learn from the OPEC playbook and ban lithium exports to the West, because USA. If only.

GoldenCinderblock: "I keep spending all my money on exotic fish so my armor sucks. Is it possible to romance multiple females? I got with the blue chick so far but I am also interested in the electronic chick and the face mask chick."
 

You'd need charging stations to be as numerous as gas stations, and cheap battery replacement and disposal. So I'm guessing maybe another generation? Let's say 2050.

I think Hybrids are still a better bet over the medium term.

 

Let's call electric cars what they really are -- coal powered. Because when you plug it in at home (or at your office or at Whole Foods, etc.) to recharge, the electricity you are using likely comes from a coal or natural-gas fired power plant. I'm not yet convinced that electric cars will be the environmental panacea they are being made out to be when in reality they still rely primarily on fossil fuels.

 
jackstraw001:
Let's call electric cars what they really are -- coal powered. Because when you plug it in at home (or at your office or at Whole Foods, etc.) to recharge, the electricity you are using likely comes from a coal or natural-gas fired power plant. I'm not yet convinced that electric cars will be the environmental panacea they are being made out to be when in reality they still rely primarily on fossil fuels.

But natural gas is less of an air pollutant than gasoline, so there are still environmental benefits.

Array
 

Just wait until old crapped out Teslas start piling up and the lithium gets into the water supply. I suppose instances of seizures and bipolar people going off their meds will go down!

Only two sources I trust, Glenn Beck and singing woodland creatures.
 

Consumer demand is a fickle thing. People don't know what they want until they need it. Electric cars have the potential to be much more efficient, because there are a host of consumer products that will go along with the electric car once it's in wider production. So, short answer is yes. Longer answer is, there's probably no empirical evidence that can describe the consumer and how the consumer buys to an exact science. But there is the fact that the world is going to look different than the one we currently live in. Once people become comfortable with that fact, those changes will start to make more sense. It's art of war, only the great general sees victory before victory is had and no one knows to celebrate expert strategy. The masses are often clueless.

 
iBankedUp:
Consumer demand is a fickle thing. People don't know what they want until they need it. Electric cars have the potential to be much more efficient, because there are a host of consumer products that will go along with the electric car once it's in wider production. So, short answer is yes. Longer answer is, there's probably no empirical evidence that can describe the consumer and how the consumer buys to an exact science. But there is the fact that the world is going to look different than the one we currently live in. Once people become comfortable with that fact, those changes will start to make more sense. It's art of war, only the great general sees victory before victory is had and no one knows to celebrate expert strategy. The masses are often clueless.

Preach!

26 Broadway where's your sense of humor?
 

And to add an additional comment, if autonomous vehicle fleets become the norm (Volvo and Ford have both announced this is a goal of theirs by the early 2020s), the electric car makes sense within the autonomous fleet business model since something like 90% of a car's maintenance is related to its engine. An electric car can conceivably run for 1 million miles, which would give it something like an 8-10-year life within an autonomous fleet (i.e. inexpensive amortization costs).

Array
 

Batteries are more expensive to replace than engines. They have only so many cycles of life. I know in mining the lead acid batteries used last about 3 years on production units before downtime necessitates retraying or replacing.

 

I drive an electric vehicle and I love it. Some charge for free, so I literally only pay for the lease, no gas or electricity.

For me, I'd say yes. It seems that driving an electric car is hip or cool. Only a matter of time when it becomes normal with a lot of electric car companies producing affordable electric vehicles

 

I read that in places like California you can lease an electric car for under $100/month. In leasing, you only pay for the depreciation, but when you lease the car lease finance company gets the federal (and state) tax credit, which often covers a huge portion of a car's depreciation. Ran the numbers in Virginia and I can lease a fully loaded VW e-Golf for something like $300/month with no money down.

Some guy ran numbers for his electric car in California and found that with the free electric charging, the "net cost" was like $50/month.

Array
 

Yeah. I often get the feeling people don't understand the machinery behind cars. Combustible engines are always going to accelerate slower because they don't offer the instantaneous fuel consumption that electric cars have. And electric cars do it without waste. So whether electric charging stations are powered by coal, gas, or other natural resources, electric cars are more energy efficient.

 
MonopolyMoney:
I would love an electric car but don't see my condo association installing charging stations for every slot for a long time.

I'm in a condo association and I've been going through the solutions (they aren't great, but serviceable?). I'm actually thinking about pitching a solution to the associaton to see how it responds. Maybe I, an intolerant, right-wing fanatic, could be the champion of the environment in my neighborhood! The irony!

Array
 

I think they are the future, but not the near future. Especially in the US which is a big country where a lot of it is inaccessible by public transportation or flights. Also, for poorer people electric cars are really unfeasible until costs come down and ranges go up. If a person lives off of buying 3-4k $ cars, then they're going to be even further away from being able to afford an electric car

 

Somewhat related but Sergio is (most likely) stepping down in 2019, so to him electric does not really matter since he will be retired from the auto industry before it really becomes cost effective/profitable enough for him to care.

As a current and very satisfied FCAU shareholder, I would just have to say Sergio is the man and hopefully he can get a deal done before he steps down.

 

Electric driving cars are the near future, but not THEE future.

Electric cars are too inefficient and not user friendly enough with charge times and battery life.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells are the future.

"A man can convince anyone he's somebody else, but never himself."
 

I'm not aware of the inefficiencies of hydrogen fuel but am open to hear them.

To play devils advocate, you could say the same thing about battery power. Creating the battery in a factory, moving the battery, storing etc.

Even making electricity... 2/3rds of all electricity produced in the US comes from fossil fuel, so you're not reducing carbon emissions by using an electric car. More electricity demand would mean more fossil fuel burn to fill the grid with power.

"A man can convince anyone he's somebody else, but never himself."
 

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