Bearish on the World
Is anyone else just bearish on the world right now at a macro-level?
Covid, political strife/divisions, ANOTHER ground war in Europe, supply chain/logistics issues, commodity prices.
Stagflation seems like a reality we're staring in the face. I would subscribe to a more Austrian School view of economics, and per Frank Shostak: "Stagflation is the natural result of monetary pumping which weakens the pace of economic growth and at the same time raises the rate of increase of the prices of goods and services."
It's a shitty time for real, but IMO also a fucking good time to deploy some cash. There's value out there to be had, more coming I think. Putting dough into index/ETFs and just rising with the tide is nice, but I enjoy digging in to find good names and that time is here. Pretty pumped.
This is true, I've been buying these dips for a while. It seems to keep dipping though haha. I'm curious to see if the S&P will hit as low as 3,999. I think I added S&P index funds 3 or 4 times in the last 2 weeks on down days. I'll keep buying as long as I still have cash, but I'm still nervous about how things are going. Wouldn't be surprised if the S&P close flat or even down by the end of the year.
fellow follower of austrian thought/classical liberalism/etc
there are always reasons to be bearish, but the long term trend of equities has been up despite a depression, 2 world wars, stagflation, and a global financial crisis. so yes it's a problem, but take the derivative of that, what are you going to DO about it? hold cash denominated in the currency that's flying off the presses? hold bonds of the very debt causing these issues? real estate which only has a value if you have tenants or sell it to the next buyer (in which case good luck if the economy's in a long term depression)? gold? crypto?
the event that could change that is global debt pressures/defaults leading to unbearable stagflation or hyperinflation in which case no one's stock portfolios will matter, we'll go back to trading guns, ammo, butter, livestock, and cowrie shells
in both cases, doesn't change my investment posture, I only worry about what's under my control, and global finance most certainly isn't
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