Oil is going to $70. Holding puts in USO.
My stop on oil is $77 / roughly 29 in USO.
Target is $70.
Oil broke through 74 which was a strong area of support, I think next support area is 70.
I think I will start posting some of my trades and see how it goes. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed and I could be wrong. BOL
I don't like the trade, at all. Seasonal cycle turn, CME margin hike and climax selling into support. Doesn't mean it won't work though, good luck.
Thx, this is a short term trade. Exp is Dec 20th, looking to hold until end of next week the latest, ideally I would be out on Friday.
Trades looking great. Hoping we stay at or below 70 until I can get out tomorrow. Will post my % gain when I lock it in.
Nicely done. Send a thank you card to OPEC this holiday season.
Made about 100% on the trade.
Amazing how much oil went down.
New trade: Got into GLD puts. After gold busted through 1180 support, I think it's heading to make a lower low.
The risk is what happens on Sunday with Swiss bank, would be crazy if they started loading up here.
Now that we are past the Swiss decision, I think Gold is going to put in a lower low.
1130 is my target. 1180 stop
Gold trade looks nice. Down almost 2% already and just opened.
Ya unreal. I got out at the open, that was a ridiculous move. Gold traded down almost 2.5% to 1140 overnight (I was happy as shit licking my chops for another minimum 100% gain).
Then I wake up and its all the way back to 1180 at the open (I got out at the open and lost 50% on the trade), and it proceeded to make a high of 1221).
I'm looking for it to hold 1200 (currently around 1204) and may take the other side if it does. What an impulsive move though, from down 2.5% to up 3.5%, just a ridiculous bullish engulfing candle and busted through the 50 day SMA.
I got into some IWM puts right before the close, higher volume today closing near the lows.
Stop 116
Target 112
Nice trades, BEAST MODE.
Would you be able to put any kind of reasoning for your trades as you carry on? Maybe this is too much info to put online, or whatever, but if you were able to just throw out a little bit of your reasoning, that would be awesome.
Thanks and keep crushin it!
Well, to continue my last post, if the only reasoning really is the support levels and there isn't much qualitative thinking involved, then just disregard what I said..
Technical Analysis. I'll try to give more reasoning behind trades if I have time. It's all based on price-action along with some moving averages I like to look at. Key support / resistance areas, fibonnaci re-tracement levels, volume, some oscillators as more of guidelines (shorter term RSI and MACD).
Today's reversal in gold was amazing, that doesn't happen often.
Word of caution, those indicators are lagging and that method of TA is relatively archaic. The overwhelming majority of "TA", when analyzed empirically, is useless. The minority that isn't typically revolves around momentum exhaustion or coincides with a "volume by price" view, all of which are more accurately viewed by that data and footprint charts. Given your time frame, I've generally stuck with writing options (usually spreads). I don't know your background, but make sure you fully understand the fundamentals behind option pricing if you are going to use them, and I don't mean to imply that you don't. Also I've seen other traders post on open forums and it largely did more harm than good, because airing your dirty laundry, reversing your opinion and taking losses are harder with an audience. With that being said, I'm looking forward to seeing some of your future posts.
Thanks. Won't be hard for me to change my opinion. Although I respect your opinion I disagree that TA is "useless." But we can agree to disagree as I'm not looking to debate.
I think credit spreads are great for periods of low vol, but currently I don't have enough margin. I have a pretty good grasp on options and the greeks (have read multiple options books, trading books, TA books, and my favorite trading book I read to date was psychology of trading by Steenbarger who has his PHD in psychology and also trades).
Watched a video a while back about this women who makes bank every year with short strangles on index options that are 2 SD's OTM on both sides. About 80% of options expire worthless and options are a decaying asset so I understand a lot of the time being short works.
If you like spreads you may like this video. I really like credit spreads, and not as much of a fan of debit spreads (rather just be long one leg and don't like how upside is capped).
But I still have no idea how she adjusts and manages risk accordingly when huge moves occur.
You need to reread what @"archervice" wrote. He didn't say it was useless just that most of it is useless when empirically analyzed and there is some that works so basically you should consider those types of TA.
Not saying I agree or disagree, but you were retorting to something that was not stated. My viewpoint is that you should consider this 'learning money' because you are not likely to do well. I hope I'm wrong, but the odds are I'm right. You have literally no discernible edge.....not information, not unique perspective, not experience, nothing. Not saying you should have that now given your spot in life, but be weary of being overconfident. You are starting your trading experience with securities where the only way for you to win is for someone else to lose an equivalent amount. That's very different than good old stocks and bonds.
Also, I am much more interested in getting my CMT than CFA after I get my MBA.
A CMT certification does not hold a candle stick (pun intended) to the CFA.
I understand that. The next thing I will be studying for after I get my licenses is the GMAT. But I would rather get the CMT before the CFA because I love trading and TA.
I'm still holding IWM puts. Waiting to see what tomorrow looks like, we didn't take out yesterday's highs and lower vol today. Will know for sure if I need to cut my losses last hr of trading tomorrow.
I just attached the screenshot I took of it, think it's a perfect cover to this journal =)
Got out of IWM for about 50% loss, going to wait a bit for a set-up I really like to open my next trade (could be a couple weeks).
Thanks, to be honest, that was a bad trade all around. My first two trades were fine, I honored my stops, had good entries and stayed disciplined. That one was terrible all around. Didn't have a good enough reason for entering the trade, then didn't honor my stop and lacked discipline.
Moving Forward I will:
Define a good entry point, define my stop, define my target and stick to the criteria like I did in my first two trades I wrote about on here.
Getting into a trade, due to bullish divergences and massive oversold condition. Calls in the XLE, it moves pretty closely with oil. My stop is a close below Tuesday's low, make it 76.50. My sell signal is going to be when 5 period RSI reaches 70 area. Looking for a nice bounce, and plan on holding this for 1-2 weeks. I will post the divergences next.
Bullish Divergences
http://tinypic.com/r/f9qp3p/8
Here's a real pic of the 2,000% return as well
http://tinypic.com/r/28ml25l/8
Trade cancelled. We are going to open at yesterday's lows. I'm going to wait and see how today goes, if we close at a newer low, I'm going to wait longer. Haven't opened the trade yet.
what is the difference between calling red or black on the roulette wheel and your trading strategies?
New Trade: Puts in IWM. Opening the trade tomorrow morning. Stop is close above 118. Reason for the trade is bearish divergences and bearish close today. I was definitely wrong about XLE (oil went down another 4.5%) and glad oil made a large portion of the move before the open. Right now there is bearish divergences on all the index ETF's. Will be interesting to see how the next few weeks playout. What's going on with oil is amazing. I still like gold but missed the 3% pop, keeping an eye on GLD as well.
Got an awesome entry on IWM today because everything opened up. Got in around 117 and already up 45% on the trade. If the mkt rolls over these could be nice.
Will post the bearish divergence on IWM pic shortly.
IWM Bearish Divergence
http://tinypic.com/r/2s96h06/8
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