Haven't seen threads out there dedicated specifically to the 2020 presidential race. With everything happening, it's so easy to forget this is an election year. Overall, I like what Biden represents, which is a return to normal presidential standards.
On the policy front, his page is extremely well-detailed, with everything from economic recovery, to COVID response, to immigration in the first 100 days, and infrastructure. But, generally, I also think things like higher taxes on the wealthiest, which he modestly is proposing, is actually a good and patriotic thing, that even wealthy people have supported.
What's this boards thoughts on the 2020 elections?
I'm gonna vote for him, but he will lose. 2020 is all too reminiscent of 2016. Plus the "in-the-closet" Trump supporters are greater now than last election. Despite what you see or read on online.
He is merely a mouthpiece. If they allow him on stage for a debate, or even virtual, Trump will mop the floor with him.
It is actually really sad that he has deteriorated to the point of barely being able to string together a sentence. As horrible as it is, he is probably helped a lot by Covid-19 as the amount of time on the trail will be minimized. It would take a huge toll on him.
God, imagine he picks Kamala as VP and drops dead in 12 months. What a nightmare.
Drops dead? If he win's with Kamala as VP, they will kill him al la House of Cards. If we think the Overton Window has shifted to this point, it will be completely smashed when that happens.
Nah he's gonna run with Hillary
Lol pull off a William Henry Harrison?
This aged well.
I think what Trump has shown, values are the most important virtue in a presidential candidate in the US. I don't think competency, skills, intelligence, experience, or even interest level is as important.
I think we probably have differing opinions on whether or not people truly value the things they claim to. But to each their own.
I.E. Mr. Sanders.... dude is worth millions, with an M. If he was truly about his causes he wouldn't have a dime to his name.
The idea that Biden is an incoherent mess but Trump hasn’t degraded exponentially in the last 4 years is rooted in little more than political bias.
Does Biden sound old? You bet. He is old and he has a speech impediment on top of it.
Does Trump sound utterly deranged and incapable of completing a thought while he rambles on about water pressure or struggles to stand upright or drink a glass of water? Also true.
I agree with that 100%. Trump is off the handle. But the guy can at least keep up with a teleprompter.
If you haven't seen the videos of Biden stumbling over his words, whilst trying to keep up with the prompter. You should give it a watch.
Biden or Trump?
Responding to this is a waste of my time. Biden was a once much better speaker, with a good presence. That isn't the case anymore. Trump has had the same sort of start-stop, stutter type, banter for years and year. The guy has been talking the same way since the 80s.
How in the world do people think this way? I feel like most people don't really understand what kind of person Biden is. Instead they believe just whatever MSNBC, CNN, Fox, or Vox says about Biden word for word.
Here are my two cents for you, you're wrong. You're merely looking at things from a very shallow point of view. Let me point out to you folks that Biden's, old unfiltered grandpa with a hint of dementia image is nothing but an image that Biden he portrays somewhat deliberately. Why? It makes him relatable. People loved Dubya for his human defects that made him look dumb. Exact same thing going on.
If you looked at the facts, you can make an educated guess on what kind of person Biden actually is.
1) Biden's political knack is top notch. He was a senator for 36 years. And was one of the youngest people to become a senator in US history. He knows how politics work and how he can thrive in it. People who are nearly mouth pieces don't get to have that kind of track record.
2) Biden actually has some good understanding of complex issues. There's a reason why Obama picked him out as VP. Biden's not your typical "I'm gonna do and say what my party tells me" politician. Sure you might not agree with his stances (I certainly don't) but you gotta give it to him that he actually has thoughts and ideas that he comes up with.
3) Biden's speech impediment is controlled. Listen to any of his actual major speeches. His gaffes are magically gone. Dude knows how to control it. He knows how to play the rhetoric game as well, which he uses to his advantage to sound more "presidential".
Biden's greatest strength has been doing his own thing and not caving to what op ed writers and people on social media want to hear. I agree with all your points about him being a seasoned and smart politician. He knows how to play the game, and he's come out on top of every 1 on 1 debate he's ever been in
If we have 3 debates and the Stony Brook model keeps Trump's chances of re-election at 90% or higher (currently 91%), Biden is going to lose. His policy is all over the place between pleasing the radical left and the centrists. He also can't make a coherent sentence and has spent the last several months hiding in his basement. The debates are going to be a rude-awakening for the Democratic Party, especially if Fox News hosts one. Trump will go after him mercilessly and Biden's inability to make a coherent statement will show.
Just like 2016 I think it depends on turnout - Hillary shot herself in the foot by refusing to acknowledge Trump had any chance (who remembers “Happy Birthday to This Future President”) and artificially depressing her own turnout by giving them no sense of urgency.
Biden will run up the score in the blue states, but Trump’s ability to charge up his base and the fact a vast majority of Biden voters will be apathetic to Biden and voting against Trump rather than for Biden gives Trump a chance. Dems need to stop trotting out unlikeable has-beens. Missed a big chance with the establishment picking Biden over Buttigieg IMO.
If things stay as they currently are, Biden is going to win and it won’t even be close.
Trump is down in Pennsylvania and Michigan. He’s down in Florida and Arizona. Ohio is in play. Hell, deep red states are currently in play. Trump is having to spend millions of dollars to try to shore up Texas and Georgia of all places. Trump’s approval polling, national polling, and state by state polling are all absurdly underwater - and before you bring up “but 2016!” or “but secret Trump voters!” - the two situations are not even comparable and the numbers are well beyond any polling errors.
Biden is:
We are in a historic recession, Trump’s handling of the pandemic is atrocious, and he is clearly not cut out for the job. He just demoted his campaign manager because they are doing so mindnumbingly bad. At this rate, the Republican Party is at risk of losing the Senate as well.
A lot can change between now and November, but for Trump to have any shot imaginable, a lot has to.
Yes, but again, it's hard for Biden to do poorly when he's been hiding in his basement. Eventually, that will catch up to him big time. His embrace of radical policies will shoot him in the foot.
Biden's support among Black Americans is much lower than Hillary's 77% to 88%. Trump has a much stronger Evangelical base right now than he did 4 years ago (90%). The job numbers are looking good, and the vaccine will get rolled out right before the election (in fact a couple of days before.) Cancel Culture has been running its course and cities that are defunding their police are seeing crime rates surging. Trump has a very good chance considering the circumstances.
Reagon was supposed to lose to Carter yet he rolled in with almost 500 electoral votes. I think the race is way too early to call.
He hasn’t been “hiding in his basement” whatsoever. This is a Fox News meme.
He hasn’t embraced radical policies at all. He’s solidly center-left. This one is a Trump campaign talking point.
No he doesn’t. Honestly this has nothing to do with if you like him or not. Republicans and Republican campaign workers know he would lose in a landslide if the election happened today.
This part is accurate, as I said above. There’s a long time until November.
But if you think Trump is currently in a good position in any way imaginable, you need to do a little more research on the topic.
...
Cool. We get it.
The two elections have very little in common. Biden is blowing Clinton out of the water, comparatively, and Trump is far weaker than he was 4 years ago.
If the extent of your analysis is that models had Clinton with a higher probability of winning (roughly 2/3 or 3/4) and she didn’t so Biden won’t either, I don’t think Wall Street is going to work out too well for you.
Trumps handling of the coronavirus is better than what mainstream media tells you: 1. Many of the deaths are attributable to 5 Democrat governors putting covid patients in nursing homes 2. Go look at the headlines and clips from mainstream media back when this all started saying that this whole virus is not bad and discouraging people from wearing mask/social distance. A lot of misinformation from media and China 3. Hydroxychloroquine is actually a good treatment for Covid 4. The economic impact of closing down businesses and worrying about very old and very health compromised individuals(in comparison to the vast majority of Americans who will be no more affected by this virus than the flu) will be so detrimental it will cause the deaths of more Americans in the long run 5. Statistics regarding Covid tests and deaths are manipulated to some degree, for instance I had a friend who was supposed to get tested but didn't end up going yet they received an email saying they tested positive?? Or that if you have a heart attack and have Covid at the same time they label it a Covid death?? There's a lot to question and look into( how about that FLORIDA testing disaster)
5 dumbest things I heard this week. 0 thoughts, all brainwashed propaganda-esque nonsense that you can disprove with a simple Google search
You must be a blast to talk to. It’s like you’ve got an IV drip of Trump’s twitter in one arm and Fox News in the other and you just spew out whatever happens to be active
Oh yeah the economic recovery plan of increasing corporate tax rate ~700bps along with god only knows the increase in FIT rate should do wonders for the economy...guy is a total space cadet. Bold prediction: he will "fall" down the stairs first wk of his presidency and whoever is VP will take over, hopefully its AOC yaaaaaaaaaaaasssss
I think the Tax Foundation does find Biden's tax policy will reduce GDP by 1.5% over the next decade. But, I think it's bullshit. Their model uses "behavioral" assumptions, which mostly tries to infer changes in the rate of investment or wages. Wages have been stagnant even with tax cuts during the Great Recession recovery and now with the Trump tax cut.
I read a GS research report that said the plan would -12% S&P500 EPS, take that for what you will...won't know until we know
You think AOC is ever gonna be a VP? Even if it were a joke, it wasn't funny.
Biden's whole thing is being that centrist guy with a sprinkle of some "progressive" ideas here and there to keep the Bernie bros in line.
I'll bump this thread when trump wins.
TRUMP 2020
Lol
it'd be amazing if Biden picks Harris, considering their row on segregation and cross town busing.
just make sure y'all don't forget to do your research down ballot, that shit will affect your actual day to day way more than POTUS
I think it's hilarious people still try to defend Trump.
Anyways, it's really a shame that in a time where urgent change is needed (climate change, CCP aggression, corona, decreasing living standards, race tensions) and some positivity is required in the US and the western world, in general, Sleepy Joe is the best the Democratic Party can offer. Tells you plenty about the state of democracy in the U.S.
So, the battle for the US presidency is literally between a complete narcisist idiot who only cares about his reelection (or his personal favourite heuristic, the S&P500) and a living zombie without a spine.
In conclusion, if I were American, I would vote Biden. Not because I like him but because he doesn't actively undermine democratic processes, he has an understanding of what the US constitution entails, and doesn't have an open admiration for foreign tyrants actively oppressing (real oppression, not the "systemic" bullcrap leftist loonies mention) their peoples.
Are people blind? Everyone shitting on Biden right now is forgetting that a majority of Americans think Trump butchered the coronavirus response. I'm not particulary fond of Democrats but I'll be voting for Biden simply as a fuck you to Trump.
Remember in 2016 Clinton was the known quantity and Trump was the unknown and people were giving him a shot. This election is shaping up to be a referundum on Trump, and right now I don't give a fuck about taxes - I want him out.
I'd much rather have a boring old man as President versus a raving lunatic. Vote republican down ballot if you want checks and balances, but Trump is fucking up our alliances and literally did nothing when Putin put a bounty on american troops.
Fuck Trump. Biden 2020.
Also regarding polling - Clinton was not leading Trump as much as Biden is right now. After the Comey letters, the national polling tightened to +4 Clinton, and the final result ended up as +2.1, well within the margin of error.
Trump banned travel from China from the get go. I don't think you realize how politics work. If he would've immediately went iron first and locked everything down people would be calling him a power hungry, controlling, dictator.
What would you have done differently? You are probably in the camp that thinks Cuomo's response was perfect. All the while he has a third of the U.S. deaths on his hands. Get real.
Rather curious you make the assumption Trump actually thinks in some geopolitical sense, or even cares about the US national interest. All the evidence points towards the fact he does not. Trump does not have any strategic vision. All his actions are entirely determined by what he thinks will gain him the most support.
That is an utterly meaningless talking point.
He didn't really, because 40,000+ people were still able to return from China.
It didn't accomplish anything. America is still the leader is cases and fatalities. Even if it helped some, you don't get to celebrate the questions you got right on the test even though you failed it. No one cares.
I don't get the hype about voting in POTUS, when you're state and local officials have waaaay more effect on your day to day life than Trump or Biden ever would.
Like, get DeBlasio the fuck outta office! Let's start there. Trump or Biden couldn't give a fuck about the rising crime in NYC
Rising crime in NYC? Defund the police. Now.
Edit: This was sarcasm. Not sure if Rona is taking the toll on my ability to convey it or peoples ability to read it. Either way, we need to be able to socialize again outside of a computer.
Comical approach, I hope you're joking. DeBlasio is a cancer that needs to evaporate instead of giving free passes to criminals, like Mets tickets.
Supposedly they did "defund" the NYPD by $1bn, whatever that may mean
Nobody is actually calling to defund the police except the radical left (who basically equate to the neo-nazis of the right).
You say that, but then politics in Washington have led Kemp to sue Atlanta over masks mandates.
Yes, but think about the prior four years. How much of your life has changed due to Trump being POTUS? I'd be willing to bet a real meager amount.
I think he might win but only because the events of the past few months. A fucking pandemic that Trump has handled horribly. The BLM movement that he has handled even more horribly. A horrrible recession as a result of all these events. If this shit didn't happen he would wipe the floor with Biden. As a caveat, it's still really close however and anything can happen. Trump won in 2016 through fear, and xenophobia is rampant this year. He's going to capitalize on this and say "Fuck China" throughout the campaign as he already has. I think there's a chance the combination of pessimistic Democratic voters who don't like Biden along with people who will use thier vote as their support to fuck China up will push him to victory. I'll be voting Biden because he will surround himself with a great cabinet and because it's a better option than Trump. I wish a lot of anti-Biden and anti-voting Democrats would compare a world in which we had Trump and a world in which we had Biden. Looking at it from an absolutist mindset is illogical and you should look at Biden relative to Trump.
How insightful...couldn’t at all tell you are only college aged.
So what lol. It's just my view I'm not trying to say I'm some political pundit. It's not like your comment was that much more insightful buddy.
Trump will capitalize on the fears of his base like he did in 2016. Most likely the following...
There's more but those are off top
Literally no one believes or cares about these things other than Fox News viewers. People care about being unemployed. People care about their family members dying from COVID-19.
Okay but that is irrelevant to him. He will use what I said to rile up his base come debate and voting time. Did the same thing in 2016.
Where do you live dude? I, and many others in my neighborhood care about those things. There were multiple businesses in my own and surrounding neighborhoods that were completely destroyed by “peaceful” protesters, my condo had to put boarding on our first floor windows, and this is all while I pay absurd prices and property taxes to live here.
People comparing Biden to Hilary dont really get it. Hillary could not appeal to a working class voters, Biden appeals to them and has his entire career. He is "middle class" Joe and was one of the poorest members of congress for a very long time. Some of the relatability could also be tied to the numerous tragic losses he has faced in his life (I guarantee many kids on WSO are not familiar at all with his story) and the grief. Plus look at actual election results. Hillary lost Wisconsin and Michigan in the primary, that was a warning sign and Biden won every single county-literally every single county in Michigan. He won in states with mostly-white Democratic electorates, including Oklahoma and Minnesota but also dominated in states with large numbers of Black voters, including Alabama, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Virginia. He won white working class voters in Massachusetts and affluent suburbanites in Northern Virginia, North Carolina and outside Houston, and Dallas. He has built a wide coalition of support.
Thank you. So many hot takes on WSO from people who don't actually follow politics or understand the underlying data at all.
Biden is:
A lot of things can change, but if the election was held today, it would be a complete blowout.
Having grown up in a predominantly white, majority working class town in Mass outside of Boston, I knew 100% that he was going to win the state and thought it was hilarious that people thought Bernie and Warren even stood a chance.
I care about kitchen table issues, not this so called "culture war", I care about a higher minimum wage, access to affordable health care being a privilege than a right- medicare for all who want it, or a public option/two tier system, universal Pre K, strong public school system, increase in title I funding, common sense measures to tackle climate change- rejoining Paris climate accord, ending fossil fuel subsidies, subsidizing clean energy, provide federal funding for carbon recapture, aggressive methane pollution limits for oil and gas operations, investments in high speed rail etc. One party (I dont really care who the nominee of the party is) speaks more about these kitchen table issues, so its no brainer for me. But I also agree that not all of us have the same boxes to check, we are not monolithic.
Throw in comprehensive criminal justice reform and you're speaking my language. Unfortunately the other party needs to rile up their base one way or another and culture wars are how they've recently chosen to do that.
This is the logic I am seeing from a lot of posters here: 2016 models were off at the state level and Trump's win was a huge shock which means models and polls are irrelevant in 2020 and moving forward.
To think this way rather than "2016 was an anomaly that's unlikely to occur again" is the epitome of flawed logic.
We'll see what happens though.
No one's even mentioned that Kanye is now filing to run for president and is already on the Oklahoma ballot. The amount of ballots and which battleground state ballots that he appears on could greatly influence this election.
I'd be shocked to see him on any ballot other than Oklahoma (which is where his family is from and isn't exactly a swing state)
He won't be a factor.
Of the states Trump won in 2016, he’s most likely to lose PA and MI this time. That would bring him down to 270 (the minimum needed).
Next on the chopping block is Arizona and Wisconsin. If he can win those, he probably wins the others he needs. If he can’t win those, he’s toast.
So I think a lot of prediction value lies in those two states.
Polls can be wrong up to about 5%. Right now he’s down like 8-9% in those two states so I pick him to lose. But if he can close that gap then he still has a shot.
If you took current polling and spotted Trump 5 points across the board, he would lose 307 to 231.
Trump being down almost six and a half in Florida is a deathblow.
I'd have guessed even lower than 231, but sounds reasonable.
I'm relying on transitive property here . . if he manages to make a comeback in his weakest states, I assume he also wins his less-weak states. That's not guaranteed of course but it's held up well in recent elections.
The big pundit mistake in 2016 went something like "there are 7 states that are up for grabs and Hillary only needs to win 2 of those, so her chances of winning overall are really high". People assumed these states are pretty independent events whereas in reality, whatever helps a candidate in one of them helps in all.
Mitt Romney 2020.
I give zero shits about the presidential election this time around, although I expect Biden to win by a decent margin.
However I am praying to all that is holy that the Republicans keep the Senate. If the Democrats sweep the Presidency, House, and Senate I think the American experiment is in serious, serious jeopardy . . .
Interesting you feel that way. America had Democrats sweep the Presidency, House, and Senate in 2008 and survived just fine.
The Republlican party's rapid transformation from a party of small government, pro-business policies, a celebration of personal liberty, American strength in the world, and the supposed moral highground to a part that flirts with fascism, actively hurts small businesses and advocates for crony capitalism, tramples on personal freedoms, scorns our allies while cozying up to dictators, and gathers behind an imminently immoral leader unquestionably has been absurd. America needs a conservative party, but the Republican party is far from that.
The Senate should be the Republican party's to lose in 2020, but Trump is dragging down everyone around him, so if they blow it they'll only have themselves to blame.
I am scared shitless by the far-left element that is ascendant in the Democratic party. Truly.
The "woke" element is extremely illiberal and frankly is the antithesis of the enlightenment ideals that Western civilization was founded upon. If this revolution is not stopped it will be absolutely catastrophic for the country. This sounds like hyperbole, I know, but I am convinced this is an existential threat to America as we know it.
When all this stuff started to make headlines back in maybe 2013-2014 I discounted it as crazy college students, but it is now infecting governmental and private sector institutions and poses a series threat. And I would emphasize this is not a left/right political thing . . . a number of prominent left-wing intellectuals are starting to speak out about how bullshit all this critical theory nonsense is.
This is old but highly encourage people to watch this 3-part series on Bret Weinstein who was a biology professor at Evergreen State. Again I remember reading the headlines back when it happened but this documentary was really illuminating.
Part I:
Part II: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0W9QbkX8Cs
Part III:
The fact that Romney is a pariah in the GOP tells you everything. I would not mind Hogan or Baker being President, I would be apathetic at worst. But when somebody (or specifically their policies) is able to invoke a visceral reaction, thats all you need to know.
Biden 2020 lfg
I plan to vote for Biden but that is because I would vote for just about anyone who would run against the current POTUS.
From this thread it looks like a lot of people are scared of the "far left" taking over america etc - the reality is most democrats are center left and the protests were simply just against police brutality (I know it went too far, but that wasn't most people).
I identify as center left and support the protests, but I draw the line and will vote against a crazy leftist if they're ever a presidential candidate, JUST LIKE I would expect my fellow republicans to step across the aisle and vote against a buffoon like Trump. If this election was Romney vs Sanders I'm sure plenty of us would vote for Romney.
Honestly if Trump wins it will pull the republicans farther right, and other than a small minority of people on WSO, it will be a difficult pill to swallow for the rest of us. I also really hope the republican party starts to court minorities, especially East & South Asians, since we're all actually pretty conservative.
Biden is not a raging leftist - sure he's taken up a few more liberal policies since the primary but it's basically lipservice to the Bernie Bros.
Did you read my thoughts?
SB for you sir.
If you know anything about Milton Friedman, then you might think that I'll dislike Biden's policies. But I gotta say I was surprised in a positive way with Biden's proposals.
Likes:
1) Raising capital gains tax. Issue has always been that capital gains tax is far lower than income tax. If you tax at similar rates for all income including salary and capital gains, businesses will have less incentives to become predatory. Friedman actually proposed this, reasoning that it'll create a more fair playfield for all businesses and prevent monopoly powers.
2) Raising tax on the wealthy. Personally I hate taxes. But the US's budget deficit is like a stage 4 cancer. Trump did nothing but increase this deficit. If Biden plans on spending extra tax towards handling the deficit the way Clinton did, I won't mind paying more taxes.
3) Environment. Finally glad someone is doing something about this.
4) Healthcare: I've always wanted both public and private insurance options. Public insurance for the most marginalized people, and private for the rest. I'm also glad that he's being practical and addressing the HUGE supply side issue everyone seems to ignore. Easing supply side restrictions like he claims he wants to will actually decrease the overall cost of healthcare.
5) Prison reform: Reagan's privatization of prisons was a mistake. It created a whole law enforcement system incentivized to catch more criminals, punish, and neglect them. There should've been regulations that allowed prisons to behave as rehabilitation centers and the police as maintainers of safety, not brutal aggressive assholes we have today.
Dislikes:
1) Social security: Why does he want some to pay more on this? We ought to privitize Social Security. Why should I give money to old people that I don't even know? Also statistically speaking, old people have more wealth than younger people. Annuities are better off provided by the private sector. Pure and simple.
2) Corporate tax. Obama wanted corporate tax to decrease. Trump made it lower than what Obama wanted. It seems to be working out. Why fix something that ain't broken? Only rationale would be to handle the budget deficit but then he could just do that with income tax?
Mixed: 1)Education: Teacher's unions have contributed to the decline of education in this country. But Biden wants to increase teacher wages? What a joke. But then there's this notion of more curriculum choice in all schools, which I see as the key to improving education that not only considers standardized test scores but also unquantifiable measures of education performance.
2) China: I think Biden will pick up where Trump left things but do it better without alienating American allies the way Trump has. I've long been a critic of Trump for his policies being a show for the media but actually ineffective ways to achieve what he says he wants to achieve. Trump has been playing tic-tac-toe while China plays chess. Unfortunately, I don't think any American politician is aware of what China is actually doing. Even with Biden stepping up the fight against China, I think it'd be him playing checkers vs China playing chess.
What about tuition free community college and making four-year public colleges and universities tuition-free for all students whose family incomes are below a certain threshold?
Honestly idk about the finances of it. But my conclusion is that it essentially can acts as a voucher system for the poor, if the subsidized tuition money went to the institution that was chosen by the student.
I'm actually surprised that on the matters of education and healthcare that the "progressive" thoughts are actually just different implementations of the neo-liberal (colloquially speaking, fiscal conservative ) ideas on Social Safety Net.
I just hope they abandon minimum wage and accept negative income tax. Perhaps we should call it "minimum income" so the progressives can get behind. Also Social Security bad.
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