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do you watch the financial news? if you do you'll know the fed cut interest rates which means the stock market is not going to crash...and it takes a whole lot more factors to cause a recession not just this sub prime nonsense...
Ya I don't think a rate cut is going to make the author believe everything is ok.
I don't think anything would convince the author "everything is ok". Perhaps he misunderstands the means by which inflation is measured. He's claiming that energy and food prices have been stripped out of the inflation indices, even though both are up "huge right now". Its true, the core CPI measurement excludes food and energy, but only because their inherent pricing volatility in the short term makes them irrelevant as a price gauge. However, both elements are absolutely included in longer term measurements. In fact, food and energy prices have been coming down more quickly than other CPI elements in the past several measurements.
Energy maybe, but not food, everything in food, (meats, dairy, livestock) has still been rising even despite improvements in supply
Not sure about milk prices, but livestock prices aren't included in CPI data, since this is already reflected in meat prices. Further, nearly all CPI data reported in the media is not seasonally adjusted, and thus systematically over-estimates meat prices during summer months. For most meat processing companies, these are banner months for premium pricing and commensurate profits, since consumer demand for grilling / barbecue activities is disproportionately high. I only know this incredibly mundane information because my fund recently sold off a large slaughterhouse business - as a general rule, June - Sept. would account for ~70-80% of all operating profit for the year.
I didn't read the article, but the mere fact that it's from a website called "blacklistednews.com" draws immediate skepticism about its integrity.
Don't you have anything better to do than read bullshit "news" and then continuously post your asinine remarks on this messageboard?
Haha, a friend of mine forwarded to me the link to that article (same article but on another website). He asked me: "Is it true about Amero?" I just looked at the source, scanned the article a bit and realized what a piece of garbage this is ;)
I want to work now! No, really. I want those 100+ hours/week.Basically ive heard nothing against his claims
That is the biggest doom and gloom article I have seen so far!
I don't think things will get anywhere near as bad even taking a bearish view.
In any event, housing is only about 5 percent of the economy. If it falls by 15 percent, that would represent a fall-off of about .75 percent. That's not trivial, but it's also not the stuff of which recessions are made.
Subprime is a mess. But it's a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That's 4 percent of mortgages.
Of these, maybe half, or 2 percent, will go into foreclosure. There will be roughly 50 percent recovery on sale of these. This is a loss of 1 percent in the mortgage market -- a sum the lenders have already made many times over because of the hefty fees on those deals. In the context of the size of the U.S. financial sector, it's nothing.
The problem of course will come with fears of subprime negatively affecting credit markets which is already happening.
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