Future of the GOP?
I know there have been quite a few political posts here, but I couldn't help this one. It seems that Trump will most likely lose the election, but no one can doubt the monumental impact he had on the Republican party. He somehow turned the party of free-market capitalism, free trade, and anti-unionism into the "party of the American worker." He got about a third of the hispanic vote (nearly half in Florida) and 12% of the black vote based on early numbers. What's happening to the party in the future? Will they stay along this path or reverse back to what they were in the pre-Trump era?
Trump’s era may not be over yet. He can run again for 2024.
at age 78? I'm hoping at least one of the 2024 candidates won't belong in a nursing home
Lol
That's way too old for a candidate. No one of that age should be running the whole country....oh wait...sorry guys
I'd vote for him.
He'll likely be dead in 4 years. If he loses he won't have the same access to top tier COVID treatment he did as POTUS. That dumbass is likely to keep going around without a mask, catch it and kick the bucket.
Gop is not dying. Will remain competitive.
Hispanic numbers look great (most in 50 years for gop)
He got apparently 18% of black men! Most ever I think
Ny state went from like 35% support of trump in 2016 to nearly 45% in 2020....all for a man who never campaigned in ny and routinely took shots at the state.
With all the limousine liberal elite fleeing ny back to Ohio and Iowa I honestly think the GOP has a shot to turn the state more competitive to counter Texas becoming more purple. Imagine if they campaigned and tried to win in ny...does trump get 2 to 3 percent more? (Thats borderline purple state levels if so......)
I think the GOP’s current numbers are a mirage. Many people voted for Trump himself - his personality and ideology. The GOP will have a tough time finding a new leader for a presidential nomination because Trump has attached most of the reputable GOP leaders, which means many Trump supporters would shun them in a primary or election. I think in 2024, voter turnout may be low on the GOP side because no candidate will be able to energize his base like Trump.’
meant to say attacked*
As it turns out, African Americans don't want the police to be defunded, Cuban/Mexican-Americans don't like to be called Latinx. Who would have thought?
The problem with the GOP remains that's anchored to the socially liberal/economic conservative branch, which is a voter wasteland.
Josh Hawley? He can actually give a direction to the Trump agenda that is supposedly "pro American worker"
And Democrat turnout will be lower because they won't feel the need to vote against someone much more than for their candidate.
Yeah, but how do you justify the GOP performance in the Senate and House then?
I think there are two potential outcomes if Trump doesn't get a second term. 1) Some member of the Trump family like Don Jr. runs in 2024 and recreates some of his dad's magic. The GOP probably loses in this scenario. 2) Some more mainstream Republican like Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, or Ted Cruz run for office with an anti-China, pro-worker, and anti-coastal elite rhetoric. In scenario 2, GOP probably wins. Every potential 2024 candidate will have to show loyalty now to Trump while he is in the fight for the presidency. Lindsey already donated half a mil to the president's legal defense fund, so he might be trying to curry favor for a 2024 endorsement.
I disagree. I highly doubt that Cruz, Graham, or Rubio could convince enough people to get votes in swing states. Maybe they’d solidify the South but that’s it. An endorsement by Trump would help for the 2024 nominee but it’s not a guarantee because Trump’s base really is only loyal to him. The GOP definitely can’t play the “pro-worker” image because they have always favored corporations in the form of lower taxer rates, loopholes, lax worker protection regulations, and union busting.
Trump and the presidential election isn’t how I would measure the future of the GOP but rather the senate and house elections where a “blue wave” never actually materialized. The Democratic Party had serious expectations to control the house and senate while winning the presidency and came up massively short on all ends. Trump failed in 2020 to provide a coherent plan and message on covid and the Democratic Party failed to realize how far left and out of touch with the American people it has gotten. Results are Trump lost the election and the Democratic Party lost its congressional representation. But in terms of the GOP it looks strong after House and Senate election results and the Democratic Party is going to have to change its platform substantially going forward. IMO I think the next 4 years could serve as a recalibration for America and a chance for both parties to reshape their platforms. WSO is a niche group but still seems to have diverse political opinions and I’d like to think that people on here collectively agree on a lot of topics (dangers of censorship, Trump’s tweets and temperament = bad, dangers of cancel culture, etc) #PhatNuts2024
I'm really curious if the GOP actually grew their coalition or people just came out for Trump and then voted down ballot as well. We saw what happened in 2018 when Trump wasn't the focus and not on the ballot. I think Biden will win and while generally the president loses support, there is a possibility of a tough midterm for GOP in 2022 if a lot just came out for Trump.
I believe people only turned out for Trump. You really think people will be hyped up about voting for Ted Cruz or Lindsey Graham for president? Lol
I do not identify as Democrat or Republic. Most likely, I’d vote for a Dem over a Rep. However my #1 PROBLEM with the Democratic party is that they have branded themselves as anti-business and anti-capitalism. America is a world superpower solely because of the riches capitalism has brought us. Look I get that there are inefficiencies and externalities in our system but Dems take that and turn it into a war against the wealthy. I’m never in favor of raising taxes for any reason. Govt will just waste the money. Also, Dems try to pander to low-income/poor people too much by promising more welfare spending. A lot of those people are poor by choice. On top of that, people in that group are least likely to vote.
They really haven’t though. Fox News has branded them as that, but they haven’t.
Yes, it is a “big tent” party, and you certainly have democratic socialists within that tent, but the balance of the party is center left.
You don’t have to take my word for it either. Joe Biden ran away with the primary vote. He then won the presidency through places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
After reading all that, then why would you vote Democrat??
I totally agree with you on the dems being against business. The Democratic Party really seems split. According to a poll I read, 54% of people who voted for Biden were voting for him mainly because they hated Trump, while 46% liked him. I wonder what % of the dem party stands for Bernie/socialist views. That would be interesting to know.
I consider myself socially liberal but economically conservative. Pro business, pro-abortion, less regulation, pro-gay marriage (not sure if this is something A large number of people still care about?), and pro 2nd amendment. I’d also be curious as to how many votes the GOP loses just because of their stance on abortion.
It is mostly talk. I think that targeting big business is a convenient target. Most dems are pro business and capitalists
A lot to tackle in this comment lol. I do believe that the Democratic Party is split between younger senate and house reps that’s support socialism and an older base that is against it. I can totally see AOC being the D party candidate for Prez in 2024 (running on the idea of change) and the GOP winning because the D Party failed to understand that outside AOC’s social media following she is not endorsed by hardly anyone. Social media is a mob/group think mentality that does not represent America collectively. I believe DC is a king’s class, whether you are Rep or Dem, that rules over the rest of us with little repercussion. Edward Snowden hits home on this topic very well but there is a relationship of knowledge and consequences that applies to the public but not the gov’t. We gain knowledge on a house rep engaging in insider trading or a senator banging a hooker and there is 0 consequence. On the flip side, if the Gov’t has knowledge on our wrongdoings the consequences are jail, fines, loss of job, etc. That is why censorship and gov’t compromising our privacy is what terrifies me most because it is/has already happening/happened with social/mass media (sec 230) and the Patriot Act. Socialism is something that while unrealistic in today’s world could be a reality 20 years from Now when the present youth being taught history backwards are climbing the ranks but in present day society censorship and Big Brother is knocking at our front door.
Your comment about anti-business and anti-capitalism should earn you a job on fox. Yes there is some of that on the far left with Bernie and Co. but that is not the democratic party as a whole, and if you look at its leaders and the actions they have consistently taken, that should be clear.
The GOP needs to wipe the past 4 years from their history and find a leader who has been successful as well as one who has good character. In politics, the good character part is hard to find. Someone who is highly intelligent and who has earned his or her success. It could be a business person with a track record of tangible achievements. Given that technology is a thriving industry, there must be someone in tech who might want the job. It should be someone who truly wants to put the interests of the country ahead of his/her own interests.
Don’t see how that is possible given that every popular GOP member has helped/defended Trump in some way. And honestly Trump is the reason for major GOP turnout. Without him, I think the party is in for a less energized base.
I think either people forget about them enabling Trump or they choose a popular governor since loyalty to Trump never became an issue
I'll tell you what I'd like to see, and it'll piss off a lot of people, but fuck it. the TLDR is resiliency, removal of moral hazard, consistency between corporate treatment and worker treatment, fiscal conservatism with strategic investments, and a complete departure from crony capitalism towards freer markets
I'd like to see the GOP give the finger to corporate america and the accounting industry. if you believe in free markets, you should abhor favorable tax treatment for certain industries or investments. business decisions should be made on business merits, not because of tax policy. take away carried interest, subsidies for energy and some agriculture (why the fuck do we make so much corn and soy?), deductibility of interest on debt (how in the fuck is this a normal business expense), depreciation (why can businesses write this off and individuals cannot? that's bullshit). W2 employees get so fucking fucked it's insane no one is talking about this. democrats simply want to increase rates without fixing some of the underlying issues (save Elizabeth Warren who talks about MUH WALL STREET). some industries need intervention, but not where it is today. I would love to see a study be done on simplifying the tax code, eliminating ALL deductions (yes all) and see how much we could lower rates and broaden the base. I'd love a tax code that's so simple 50% of CPAs and financial planners lose their jobs. we should not create complicated systems to favor certain industries over workers. and yes, this would affect me as it would completely nuke expense accounts. I still take people to lunch when my budget runs out, not because I can deduct it (because I can't) but because it's good business. so much waste gets created because businesses are allowed to write off things that are only done because they're a tax deduction. so sorry conference planners and business CPAs and anyone whose industry depends on above the line deductions, you're fucked. but guess what, W2 workers have been getting fucked forever, so welcome to the party.
I'd also like to see them support free markets in things like education. I'd be willing to bet universities would stop raising tuition so much and accepting so many gender studies majors if the federal government didn't bail them out when loans didn't get repaid. "oh, you wanna study french literature from 1741-1780? that'll be $40,000 a year, cash, but if you want to study EE, we'll just charge you room and board and extend you a 3% loan." you remove the moral hazard, the education system changes itself, otherwise schools will go bankrupt for being degree mills and producing students who make $30k/yr and never repay their debt.
I'd love to see them tackle corruption, head on. outlaw lobbyists, set term limits (3 terms in senate, 9 terms in house), allow americans to completely opt out of political ads on the internet if they wish, and set a law designed to prevent bureaucrats from profiteering based upon their name. you want to be an author? love it! you give a sweetheart deal to the financial industry, and now you're vice chairman of a bank making 8 figures? that's fucked up, it should not be allowed. while we're on the subject of corrupt shit, outlaw private prisons, review mandatory minimum sentencing, speed up federal marijuana legalization (you knew it was coming), and review how government contracts and budgets are handled (why in the fuck do budgets HAVE to be spent by year end otherwise they won't be re-upped? that's not how financial planning works you morons). disallow all corporations, nonprofits, unions, and any "entity" from making political donations. you can buy ads, sure, no one can prevent that, but corporations should only be allowed to speak to politicians, like individuals can, not grease their pocketbooks with millions and millions.
on top of that, I'd like to see the GOP put its money where its mouth is, if it's truly the growth and opportunity party (nice play on words), look long and hard at what's going to propel this country forward. lest you think I'm some libertarian anarchist who just wants to get high (sometimes I do come off that way), I'm not, I'd like to see the government invest strategically in projects that this country needs. let's get rid of the telecom monopolies and invest in more cell towers, get nationwide 4G-6G, Africa skipped landlines in favor of all mobile, why do we still have one cable company per city. we need to get the entire country (except for national parks and protected lands) online. it opens opportunity for education, job mobility, and economic independence. I don't know if charter schools are the answer to the education system, but I'd like something to change. you have schools that perform so poorly year in and year out and nothing changes. our youth is our future, why do they not get opportunity? because of unions? because of corruption? idk, but your educational quality shouldn't matter if you live in Los Gatos versus South SF or UES versus spanish harlem, so let's fix that, and maybe online is part of the solution.
I'd like to see them give a tangible solution to fixing america's policing issues. first things first, annual PT. our military has to do it, and I believe whether you're protecting our borders or protecting our neighborhoods, you should be able to pass an annual physical fitness test. increase police funding, increase salaries, but also increase training, transparency, and crush the unions. not all cops are bad, but there are a lot of bad cops that get to stick around, that's bullshit and everyone knows it. get 'em out. if you're protecting my neighborhood, I want the absolute best. not all cops need to be Marines, but there's a happy medium between overweight retarded racists and David Goggins. idk if Jocko's idea of 20% of their time being in training, but I'd happily pay an extra 1% on my taxes if part of our military's peacetime duties was training police departments on tactics like firearm decision making, dealing with hostile prisoners, etc. you claim to be a party that backs the blue? well, let's fuckin fix the blue, help em out with more funding, and put them in a position to succeed, while at the same time having a zero tolerance policy for the atrocities like George Floyd's murder.
I'd like to see them draw a distinction between values and religion. the coddling of the evangelical community is despicable. protect freedom of religion, and then stop. maybe getting money out of politics will reduce the christian right's influence, but if you claim to be all MUH BILL OF RIGHTS then remember part of the first fucking amendment, government's duty is to protect your right to express yourself, not blur the line between church and state. read what Jefferson wrote, not fuckin Jerry Touchy Falwell
I'd like to see them fix healthcare, and not in the way you think. it's disgusting we reward sickness, the entire pharma industry is built off of keeping people sick or symptom management. when you have things like high fructose corn syrup and processed garbage leading to metabolic and cardiovascular disorders which account for a disproportionate amount of medical costs as well as government subsidizing the very industries producing those products, you have a GIGANTIC FUCKING PROBLEM. let's stop doing that. I'd like to see a nationwide campaign like the ad council or something that encourages americans to become healthier. maybe it's part of an infrastructure plan that creates more national parks and walkways (increased policing would keep this safe as well), maybe it's a nationwide plan to replenish our bison and grasslands by moving away from corn and soy and more towards regenerative farming (hold your tongue greenies, these are net carbon sinks and are good for the environment, farts and all) so people don't get that corn syrup bullshit inserted into everything, maybe it's recognition that obesity is an epidemic instead of going on about fat shaming. maybe it's an admission by the USDA that they were dead wrong on fat and processed carbs and that Ancel Keys is a twat who needs to be removed from history. maybe it's a nationwide revamping of the school cafeteria food supply. maybe it's removing moral hazard from the meatpacking industry and factory farming. maybe it's nationwide interventionalist RCTs that address all sorts of dietary questions (broader than the framingham study) so we can stop with all of this broscience nonsense, get back to eating local, eating seasonal, eating sustainable, and eating real food, not processed garbage. maybe it's all of that, but if we're going to succeed in the 21st century, I'd like to see the country stop championing dad bods.
I'd like to see them make strategic investments (like the broadband idea) but at the same time fix our nation's finances. when Keynes said governments should use the treasury to rescue us in times of crisis, he also said we should payoff our debts afterwards. make strategic investments like renewable energy (removing subsidies for other energy will help this), rebuilding our infrastructure (why do parts of our country have worse roads than 3rd world countries?), and so on. we need to fix social security, why on earth does the full retirement age not grow as life expectancy at 65 grows? that's illogical, so let's fix that. why is there a cap on wages subject to FICA taxes and not a cap on wages subject to other taxes? why are some business owners allowed to avoid payroll taxes? it's the easiest problem to solve, yet no one wants to solve it. on the national debt, I firmly believe many of my other suggestions will raise revenues by eliminating loopholes, deductions, and reducing government spending. I've done the debtfixer analysis, including raising some taxes, increasing infrastructure spending, free community college, etc., and my plan saves $8 trillion dollars (yes, trillion with a T). debt as a % of GDP would fall to 21% by 2050 from it's current level of nearly 100%. this will take time, but it can be done.
finally, I'd like to see them distance themselves from trump and people like him. his negotiation tactics are not what the founding fathers had in mind, and they do not engender resiliency (the main theme of my party/country makeover idea). I'd like to see a complete party makeover, and rise above getting facebook victories and complaining about CNN. I abhor CNN too, but if all we focus on as a party is owning libs, we'll never get anything done. instead of trying to catch them in lies or making fun of rachel maddow's face, let's fix what democrats have failed to fix, and throw THAT in their face, not yet another stupid ass tweet from an overly indebted pantload who does as much prep for national speeches as kirk gibson did before that home run.
There is an interesting documentary out there on capitalism with Robert Reich, and he goes to middle America and pretty much just talks with people to see what is going on in their lives. The most interesting part is that this was 2016, and in the documentary you see that people are conflicted over who they like more, Trump or Bernie.
My bet is that if you put this list of things in front of the average person without mentioning and party etc. and told them this was the agenda of the Republicans or Democrats, most would guess that it’s the agenda of the party they favor. That’s because most people are actually in agreement on most of this, and it is why Bernie and Trump are just two sides of the same coin. If this voting block came together it would literally be unstoppable.
In the same documentary, it highlights a study by (if I remember correctly) Dartmouth researchers, that found that laws that almost no citizen was in agreement with had a 30% or thereabouts chance of passing. This is the direct result of crony capitalism.
I believe very strongly that the economic disenfranchisement of the average American and the civil and social unrest we see today are not just linked, but are one in the same. Your post is an ode to that, and highlights one of the great failings of our two party system. If Americans were accustomed to a multi party system, and someone ran on the platform you outlined above, I have no doubt that (given a little charisma) they would pull in Trump’s base as well as Bernie’s.
This is the great trick that has been played in American politics. As long as average people are divided over politicized issues like abortion and gun rights, there is no chance that a charismatic populist can straddle the fence and give the middle finger to the elites of both parties, winning more votes than any candidate has ever done in the history of the US.
thank you for your reply, and I wholeheartedly agree. the reason why politicized issues like abortion and gun rights didn't make it into my remake of the GOP is because the libertarian/social liberal in me does not give one iota of a fuck. Roe v Wade is settled. I am personally not a fan of abortion, but I do not believe it's the government's place to decide. on guns, I'm a proud gun owner, so while I'd be open to some reforms, I don't think a ban is necessary, and I firmly believe my policy positions on education, policing, and drug reform will help solve a lot of the ills that are currently blamed on guns (over time, not overnight).
I read all of this and think you said it incredibly well. Thanks for taking the time to write all of that. I am a lifelong democrat but if the republican party was able to move towards these goals, and the democrats could be more moderate as a whole, I think we could see a lot more unity and bipartisan work. Here's hoping.
I wholeheartedly agree. This is a mix between both parties. Problem is polarization kills us all. If I had to guess who would support this? I’d say a centre-left Dem like Chuck Schumer. I think Biden would buy into this too.
I will be fascinated to see how the GOP performs when Trump is no longer on the ballot, and then again when he is no longer above ground. Until the day he dies, he will be a vocal influence on the GOP. It’s clear that the GOP won’t go back to the Bush/Romney days, especially given how “close” this election was and their gains down ballot.
The biggest challenge I see is that the GOP base is now wildly out of line with the GOP donors. The donors want cheap immigrant labor, union busting, tax cuts for billionaires, relaxed worker and environment protections, etc. Most donor initiatives will directly harm their undereducated working class base, but the working class is too busy “owning the libs” to notice or care. Will they ever figure it out?
Yes, because the Democrats care about the worker. The Democratic Party has become the party of college-educated professionals, focused on forgiving student debt and a “transition" from uncouth industries, ensuring the unfettered flow of unskilled immigrant workers, and framing education policy around the interest of teachers rather than students. Yes, they will raise taxes, but they will fight tooth-and-nail for the “SALT” deduction that gives a discount to owners of expensive homes in high-tax states. They will expand government programs, but their idea of “pro-family” policy is free childcare so both parents can work full-time. If this transition continues, the Republicans will become the working party and the Democrats will become the Country Club Socialists Club.
I think DeSantis is an interesting candidate to watch. I’m not sure if he’d run for 2024, but he definitely would have an appeal that a politician like Cruz would not have imo. At least based off the comments I’ve read here and in the Fox comment thread, I don’t think he would have that big of an issue gaining White support compared to Cruz/Haley
Kind of surprised you pointed to DeSantis, of all people, to be honest.
He was my third pick. First I had Romney (created an entire thread over it) but realized through that thread that the GOP has moved beyond career politicians. Also Romney was part of the Lincoln Project, which isn't going to help him at all while trying to secure a nomination. Second, I have Trump himself trying to run again for 2024 which I mentioned in the first comment to this thread. But by then Trump would be 78 so it's unknown whether he would be healthy enough to run again or even alive.
Josh Hawley is the logical candidate for 2024 with Elise Stefanik as VP. Hawley is less extreme than Cruz/Cotton on conservatism and has given shape to the Trump ideology that focuses on the American worker. He is against unfettered power to mulitnational corporations and is against exploiting the worker. He is (obviously) a better speaker than Trump, and given his rural Missouri upbringing, he could actually "sell" the Working Party Conservative vibe that Trump cannot. Elise Stefanik worked closely with the Trump campaign and defended him from impeachment. Given her Ivy League status, working for the Bush admin, representing a somewhat mixed district in terms of educated and uneducated people, and successful efforts to elect women to the US House of Reps, she would appeal to voters as well. They could both bridge the gap between the Country Club Republican and the Working Class Republican.
Get rid of Fox News first and foremost.
Largest fake-news, conspiracy machine in the US.
Honestly think 2024 could've been Mitt's best shot if he weren't what, 77? I could picture Don Jr. making a run but think he'd finish dead last in primaries. Cruz will probably make a strong showing. Rubio will probably be in the mix but I don't expect much. Poor Jeb! will never be president. Lindsey Graham, maybe, but he'll also be pushing 70 by then and I think one of many takeaways from 2020 is that we need somewhat young(er) blood running - watching two geriatrics yelling at each other on national TV was just fucking weird. Also think Hawley would do well.
Someone mentioned DeSantis in this thread, I also think he'd do well if he runs. I'm not very in touch with FL politics but my friends down there really like him.
Made an entire thread over Romney running again (entitled "Romney 2024?"). General consensus is that it's not happening (even if you take out his age). You can view that thread to see what more users wrote about it.
Don Jr. is like the most unlikable person ever. He isn't able to hype people like his dad and just seems like a douchebag. He would never gain any traction imo.
The near future is people like Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz jockeying to try to appeal to the trump voter...ie more of the same. Longer term, who knows, but this has been going on for at least 10 years now since the onset of the Tea Party.
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