How far can a MD stick out for a super non-target kid?

Alot

do you shine his shoes as your part time job?

MD's an change the laws of physics at a firm. It's all whether or not you're worth him changing the direction of gravity.
Leave no doubt!

Here's some hard reality. From my experience, come game day, an MD will lift a finger for you only if you've built a solid one-on-one personal rapport with him. Your powerful drive and determination may make an initial impression, but the bad news is it's a prerequisite for the industry. To put it into perspective, he literally sees hundreds of kids with "great attitude and hustle" on daily basis. Everybody's busting their arses 24/7 vying for a spot with him, as this site is daily proof. Your best game is getting him to identify you as a "regular" and not another job-hungry kid aggressively trying to pitch himself. Fact is, no one feels obligated to help a person who only expresses interest in you because he needs something. Build a steady casual dialogue NOW so you'll have a "relationship" by the time you graduate. 9-1 he'll feel obligation to assist. p.s. keep it casual (sports, his kids, his alma mater, etc.) the less "banking" talk the better.

You should SEDUCE him!

B u m p

You should leverage any connections you have to get your foot in the door. You'll still have to prove yourself once it's in the door. Coming from a non-target it'll be pretty difficult to keep up with kids who have access to on day 1 of freshman year: alumni for advice either networking or they actually come on campus to give talks, professor-run and 3rd party technical skills workshops, programs that are made to bring kids into IB, clubs made for IB with a decade of information/templates/advice, upperclassman who have successfully gone through the ringer as mentors guiding you every step of the way. The list goes on and on.

I'm transferring to a target school in the fall, and despite having an absolutely perfect record at my non-target (4.0, head of clubs, sports, volunteer work, relevant work/internships), I'm still considering postponing graduation and just using the extra time to get CFA level 1, just so I can have access to a full networking/recruiting cycle and make sure I get the ideal position I actually want. The more accelerated timelines are, the more difficult it becomes for non-targets transfers.

You'd also be setting yourself up for a single-stock shock. If this one connection fails to get you where you want to be, you won't have that pull anywhere else. Need to diversify your options.

TL:DR - MD is a great connect, but don't just count on that. Make sure you set yourself up for success once you're past the door, and if plan A fails.