Is Jeff Bezos the "new" Steve Jobs?

Call me crazy, but the amount of disruption that Amazon has caused in global business leads me to believe that Bezos has now taken over the "innovator" throne with the passing of Steve Jobs.

Amazon has announced its intentions to delivery packages via drone for customers that need something as fast as possible.

Now, some may view him as more or less innovative than Jobs. I'd rather not compare the two and focus on what Bezos & Amazon has delivered:

*A dominant, online retailer that has reshaped the industry by crushing the brick and mortar model
*Revamped the publishing industry
*A significant driver of e-books
*One of, if not the largest, cloud hosting sites

Most critics of Amazon point towards its minuscule margins, but the stock price suggests plenty of believers in the long-term potential of this behemoth, even if it is "overvalued".

Perhaps the best part about Bezos is the fact that he got his start much like Jobs. A prior Hedge Fund VP, he drove across the country and started up Amazon out of his garage in Seattle.

Quite an impressive man.

more info: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/12/02/248170316/drone-delivery…

 
Best Response

This is incredible. Better brush up on my skeet shooting skills, gonna hunt for electronics.

http://www.Amazon.com/b?ref_=tsm_1_tw_s_amzn_mx3eqp&node=8037720011

I tried to post this as a separate thread but no dice for some reason. This is truly visionary/amazing.

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 
happypantsmcgee:

This is incredible. Better brush up on my skeet shooting skills, gonna hunt for electronics.

http://www.Amazon.com/b?ref_=tsm_1_tw_s_amzn_mx3eqp&node=8037720011

I tried to post this as a separate thread but no dice for some reason. This is truly visionary/amazing.

This is great. 1+ SB.

"He that hath a beard is more than a youth, and he that hath no beard is less than a man." ― William Shakespeare, Much Ado About Nothing
 
happypantsmcgee:

This is incredible. Better brush up on my skeet shooting skills, gonna hunt for electronics.

http://www.Amazon.com/b?ref_=tsm_1_tw_s_amzn_mx3eqp&node=8037720011

I tried to post this as a separate thread but no dice for some reason. This is truly visionary/amazing.

^Shoots down a drone, finds box of dildo's the middle aged lady next door ordered.
 

I agree, and this announcement is pretty cool. Although completely innovative, it isn't all that unexpected. This drone move is Amazon showing it's might and pummeling competitors with an advantage that they simply can't replicate.

Amazon has a clear strategy and is leveraging its entrenched competitive advantages to offer something new and unique that will be tough for others to even consider doing. They are great at pioneering new markets and sharply focused on the ones that reinforce its entrenched advantages. With Bezos at the helm, I wouldn't be surprised to see this overcome the numerous hurdles and make it to the market.

The error of confirmation: we confirm our knowledge and scorn our ignorance.
 

1+ SB, @"peinvestor2012".

If it is put into production this should be the theme song for the commercials:

//www.youtube.com/embed/JA6id4--BDg

"He that hath a beard is more than a youth, and he that hath no beard is less than a man." ― William Shakespeare, Much Ado About Nothing
 

Jobs was more of a marketing guy and Bezos seems to be an idea guy. I dont know how squarely they fit into each category but I dont think they're directly comparable.

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

As happypantsmcgee says, Jobs was more marketing. I think Jobs was also an idea guy, but he was able to revolutionize a couple different industries by perfecting existing ideas (a point that has been overused, I concede, but still valid). Bezos has been similar (with less of a marketing bent), except his latest idea (if it ever is approved) could end up disrupting the parcel industry (USPS, UPS, DHL, FedEx) and retail industry in a way that has probably not even been seriously considered because it sounds a little crazy. If he could make this work, it would be Amazon's next big step and could seriously change the retail and logistics landscapes.

 

Another note... Couldn't intercepting these things (or shooting them down) be a serious problem?

I wish I was in on brainstorming meetings for things like this. Give me a teachers salary the rest of my life if you want, but if I could just be a professional brainstormer for ideas like this, I'd be a satisfied man.

 

Was talking about this earlier today. You could, conceivably, have people hunting for PS4s and what not. I could see this being an issue particularly in bad urban areas that one would have to fly over to get to the nicer areas where the target demographic for this product would reside. Would probably be controlled through altitude to some degree.

(This was like a 20 minute convo at the office this morning so I've put some thought into it.)

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 
happypantsmcgee:

Was talking about this earlier today. You could, conceivably, have people hunting for PS4s and what not. I could see this being an issue particularly in bad urban areas that one would have to fly over to get to the nicer areas where the target demographic for this product would reside. Would probably be controlled through altitude to some degree.

(This was like a 20 minute convo at the office this morning so I've put some thought into it.)

Sounds like an entertaining way to start the day! So, due to Amazon's extremely amenable exchange policy, you could conceivably hunt for anything right? If you found a way to reliably hunt these things (find flight paths or distribution centers, etc.) you could just take anything and then sell it back to Amazon, no? Or you could sell it for slightly cheaper in your own Amazon marketplace or on eBay or your local classifieds.

I'm sure Amazon would get on top of it quick (and has already considered this) but it would be interesting.

 

Interesting idea, but it will work only if Amazon's got deep enough pockets in Washington, D.C. You're asking a federal bureaucracy--the FAA--to sign off on something like this. That is a very, very high hurdle to overcome. NHTSA is going to take a decade to sign off on autonomous cars even though we already know they are safer than humans.

 

If I hack a drone, do I get to keep the cargo? Is there insurance for damages caused by HPM shooting them down? Will delivery by parachute get me a discounted rate? What if I order a drone from Amazon, will they deliver it by drone?

Hey dawg, I put a drone in your drone for your drone delivery by drone

Get busy living
 

Best use we have thought of so far.

1) Dont have a condom? Make that foreplay last a little longer and have one flown to your place.

2) Stranded without a roll? Have one dropped next to you on the shitter.

What else we got?

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

Time.

The whole point here is that you'd be able to get household goods or things that you ordered quickly. UPS doesnt sell anything. UPS doesnt have all those products at their disposal as soon as you order. They could do it but the real game changer here is ordering something and having it at your door in a few hours. If you're talking about UPS, something would have to be delivered to the store or shipping facility by the seller to start the process and that time could ruin it for them. Amazon is also far more centralized. You have a fleet of these drones at their distribution hubs and you're set. UPS would do...I dont even know, a few at each of their stores?

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

Obviously that's a probability, but they'll have some catching up to do.

Here's the thing: Amazon uses a wide variety of shippers, including UPS, FedEx, US Mail, and various other third parties. According to UPS management, Amazon comprises about 15% of their shipping volume. Assume it's a similar percentage across the other shippers, give or take a point or two. If this actually happens, the landscape for shipping is forever altered. UPS will probably survive (though 15% is a huge hit to take), FedEx might be another story, and a lot of the smaller shippers will just go under.

Game changer, if the FAA ever gets out of its own way.

 

I think this is going to spell disaster for the USPS more than any other of Amazon's usual shippers. I use Amazon pretty frequently (~6 orders/month probably) to purchase anything from books to computer monitors/TVs. I actually just bought two computer monitors from Amazon about a month ago and 2 60" LEDs about a year ago and each was a great experience. 9 times out of 10 an order of books or movies, basically anything under the five pound limit for the drones, is delivered by the USPS. Anything bigger, valuable, or fragile is delivered by FedEx or UPS. This may unique to where I live, but I don't really see drones carrying small packages changing what FedEx/UPS deliver for Amazon until Bezos can come up with a drone that can drop a 60" flat screen off at my door an hour after I order it.

[quote=patternfinder]Of course, I would just buy in scales. [/quote] See my WSO Blog | my AMA
 

Also interested in how they plan to make this work in downtown urban areas. Could you imagine a bunch of these little bitches flying around Manhattan? People would just be grabbing crap that landed near them

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

When (if) this service begins to mature....which I suspect will take longer than people think...in a place like Manhattan, only rooftop delivery would be accessible. Right? I mean they are miniature helicopters, there would be too many injuries in a densely packed space.

Please don't quote Patrick Bateman.
 

Thats really the only viable option. Its projected to go into pilot in 2015 I believe (some customers will have access) but I bet almost anything that there will be approved pick up locations in major cities early on as well. Well placed and numerous but not home delivery initially.

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

I think what many foreigners are impressed about with the U.S. when they visit is the law and order--people obey traffic signals, contracts are enforced, etc. I think, by and large, you'll see the same thing with this type of delivery--law and order. That may not necessarily be the case in India or Nicaragua or Timbuktu.

 
BTbanker:

What's stopping me from shooting those things out of the sky, and having Christmas in July?

It's approved by the FAA (or will be) - shooting one of these things out of the sky would be akin to criminal (federal?) offense/tampering. The same way that tampering with a USPS car would probably land you some charges. I'm sure the drones will have cameras, etc. that will monitor who is actually picking them up. Might even need verification of identity upon pickup (fingerprints?)

I'm seriously excited about this. You'd be surprised, though, how many people in my area are rabidly against the idea of drones. (coughSouthern social conservatives paranoid about privacy).

Currently: future neurologist, current psychotherapist Previously: investor relations (top consulting firm), M&A consulting (Big 4), M&A banking (MM)
 

Call me crazy, but I don't think this is ever going to fully take off (no pun intended). Flawed on so many levels that this would be more of an insurance nightmare than a profitable....venture. Cool idea though.

Once I did bad and that I heard ever. Twice I did good and that I heard never.
 

If you think Bezos is amazing you only have to look the stratospheric PE ratio of Amazon to figure out you have plenty of company, and I agree.

But somehow I dont´see this as disruptive at all. Maybe I´ve missed something by not watching the video, but I don´t think there is anything new (let alone revolutionary) in using drones for parcel delivery.

  • Did I not hear a similar story years ago about using drones and hubs for transportation of medicines / organs in the third world? Like helicopters who would stop from time to time and be charged (thru WiFi) if necessary.
  • Have we not considered that drones would be very useful when the transportation systems have been disrupted (Phillipines)?

and regarding how disruptive it will be for the industry, is there any reason why Amazon´s competitors will not be allowed to use the system¿? Has Amazon invented anything here? In my mind, the technology is out there for all to use (once it is ripe and regulated).

 
smikal:

Wow, I can't believe you monkeys are falling for this marketing/PR stunt.

The drones can't go as far as a truck, can't carry as much, are vulnerable to crime, are illegal to fly, then there's maintenance costs and their viability in bad weather and so much other stuff they almost certainly don't have answers for.
It's nothing more than an experiment and I'll be surprised if they have something that's up to the job in 10 years even. FAA is also notoriously impossible to deal with and no way these get approved within 5 years even.

They only really have toys to fly around now. Meanwhile they get great marketing on a 60 Minutes puff piece to counteract all recent bad PR concerning Jeff Bezos.

AMZN short must be killing you, eh?

 
smikal:

Wow, I can't believe you monkeys are falling for this marketing/PR stunt.

The drones can't go as far as a truck, can't carry as much, are vulnerable to crime, are illegal to fly, then there's maintenance costs and their viability in bad weather and so much other stuff they almost certainly don't have answers for.
It's nothing more than an experiment and I'll be surprised if they have something that's up to the job in 10 years even. FAA is also notoriously impossible to deal with and no way these get approved within 5 years even.

They only really have toys to fly around now. Meanwhile they get great marketing on a 60 Minutes puff piece to counteract all recent bad PR concerning Jeff Bezos.

Sure, right now they can't carry as much or fly as far, but that will improve. Sure it won't change the world, but if you don't see the value in 30 minute delivery of a good that you can purchase from your mobile phone then you are either trolling or dumb.

It could take 30 minutes or more to drive to your local retailer, find your item, check out, and drive back home. It will also be more expensive. For those of us who use Amazon significantly, being able to push a button and have something at your doorstep 30 minutes later at Amazon prices and backed by Amazon customer service is valuable.

I don't know how they will get it approved, etc. but if they do, it's more than PR.

 
rhen:
smikal:

Wow, I can't believe you monkeys are falling for this marketing/PR stunt.

The drones can't go as far as a truck, can't carry as much, are vulnerable to crime, are illegal to fly, then there's maintenance costs and their viability in bad weather and so much other stuff they almost certainly don't have answers for.
It's nothing more than an experiment and I'll be surprised if they have something that's up to the job in 10 years even. FAA is also notoriously impossible to deal with and no way these get approved within 5 years even.

They only really have toys to fly around now. Meanwhile they get great marketing on a 60 Minutes puff piece to counteract all recent bad PR concerning Jeff Bezos.

Sure, right now they can't carry as much or fly as far, but that will improve. Sure it won't change the world, but if you don't see the value in 30 minute delivery of a good that you can purchase from your mobile phone then you are either trolling or dumb.

It could take 30 minutes or more to drive to your local retailer, find your item, check out, and drive back home. It will also be more expensive. For those of us who use Amazon significantly, being able to push a button and have something at your doorstep 30 minutes later at Amazon prices and backed by Amazon customer service is valuable.

I don't know how they will get it approved, etc. but if they do, it's more than PR.

But that's the problem I see with this, the price of shipping. I don't think Amazon will offer 30 minutes shipping for free. This service will cost money. Add the fact that coming soon, we will have to pay taxes on Amazon purchases, and the competitive edge goes away. Plus, did you see the size of the box? The only products that can potentially be delivered this way, most likely don't cost much. (There's a correlation with weight and price of products). Add the amount of money that it will cost to buy and maintain the drones, plus charge them (assuming they are electric), and this could be a lose lose for Amazon. I don't see this working. This is probably a PR stunt, that's my guess.

 

Bezos will have us buying stuff and getting it delivered instantly via drones eliminating the need for brick and mortar retail and shipping companies.

Elon Musk will have us buying cars direct from the manufacturer, eliminating the need for car dealers and have us moving around the country via Hyperloop, eliminating the need for the domestic airline industry.

And Google will bring us Fiber, eliminating the need for Time Warner Cable / Comcast / Xfinity.

Should be an interesting next 10 - 15 years. Not a good time to be a middleman.

 

Obviously this is a neat idea but Summer 2015 is an impossibly laughable time frame. As mentioned before the FAA won't have this figured out in time but not just because they are so bureaucratic. There are a couple issues that come right to mind:

  1. Weather issues- I'm not sure what happens the first time a 30kt gust pick up and blows this into a house, car, yard, or worse a human. I mean i can just picture the weather picking up and then a hundred of these things just in various states around a town. Worse yet, I could see one of these delivering in Alexandria,Va and getting blown off course into final approach for runway 15 at Regan.

  2. Communication with other Aircraft: A large amount of aircraft aren't even remotely equipped to receive or transmit signals for these drones to pick up on. Legislation to require aircraft and pilots to go through these expensive upgrades would alienate the aviation community which is exactly who you need pushing for these changes in #4.

  3. Privacy Concerns- You can bet you are going to have "not in backyard" syndrome once these things start flying around 100 feet over your house with all of its sensors/cameras. As Rhen mentioned you can bet there will be somepeople that will take offense and take matters into their own hands.

  4. FAA Regulation- The FAA is just starting to even articulate the possibility of UAS by releasing there first "roadmap" this year. You can check it out here: http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/uas/ They still have a long long way to go

And from Amazons point of view since this has so much potential this isn't something you want to rush into and screw up. An accident like #1 would set this progress back decades.

The summary is(in my opinion obviously) this is a very cool concept and some day commerce will absolutely look like this but i don't see it really becoming a viable delivery option for minimally 10 years. This video is just a proof of concept.

 

What if I was a terrorist and got into one of the warehouses, and instead of putting the regular package, I put a 5 pound bomb in the drone to flyover he city. Security into an Amazon warehouse is definitely a lot easier to get through than at an airport. Pretend to be a worker, already be a worker, or kill a worker to get to the drones. This is a national security risk.

We're not lawyers. We're investment bankers. We didn't go to Harvard. We Went to Wharton!
 
gridironceo:

What if I was a terrorist and got into one of the warehouses, and instead of putting the regular package, I put a 5 pound bomb in the drone to flyover he city. Security into an Amazon warehouse is definitely a lot easier to get through than at an airport. Pretend to be a worker, already be a worker, or kill a worker to get to the drones. This is a national security risk.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.

 
gridironceo:

What if I was a terrorist and got into one of the warehouses, and instead of putting the regular package, I put a 5 pound bomb in the drone to flyover he city. Security into an Amazon warehouse is definitely a lot easier to get through than at an airport. Pretend to be a worker, already be a worker, or kill a worker to get to the drones. This is a national security risk.

Why not skip all those steps and just buy your own (already commercially available) drone, Dunsky?

 

As my good friend Arthur Schopenhauer once said, "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."

That being said, I think these octocopters will have a whole bunch of kinks and problems at first (because they're such a novel addition to the societal landscape), but ultimately I think they are a game changer (assuming they are approved).

To those folks that say people will shoot them down from the sky and such, I would respond by pointing out that this is not a valid concern for the same reason that restaurant owners aren't worried that folks will gobble up their food and leave without paying...ultimately society operates on a combination of trust and threat of punishment, and that will apply to this just like anything else.

 

As someone mentioned, this idea replaces only the very last segment of the current supply chain. Products still have to travel from manufacturer to Amazon distribution center to local distribution center where these drones can then deliver products to the end user.

There is also the issue of inventory management. Large cities will require several (if not many, think LA) of drone hubs to provide delivery coverage. How will Amazon ensure that a large number of small disjointed distribution centers have their customers' desired products (possibilities are near infinite) on demand around the clock every single day? Will there be a standardized PrimeAir catalog? If your desired product isn't even available at your closest drone hub, might as well just standard one day ship it. This seems like a logistical nightmare compared to regional distribution centers.

 

Re: FAA concerns. Best I can tell, they regulate starting at 500 feet. These would fly well below that.

Source: Wiki - Legislation in 1970 gave the agency management of a new airport aid program and certain added responsibilities for airport safety. During the 1960s and 1970s, the FAA also started to regulate high altitude (over 500 feet) kite and balloon flying.

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 
happypantsmcgee:

Re: FAA concerns. Best I can tell, they regulate starting at 500 feet. These would fly well below that.

Source: Wiki - Legislation in 1970 gave the agency management of a new airport aid program and certain added responsibilities for airport safety. During the 1960s and 1970s, the FAA also started to regulate high altitude (over 500 feet) kite and balloon flying.

I forgot what agency has the right to regulate navigable waters--Interior, EPA, etc.--but they have gone so far as to define a puddle or a small pond in someone's backyard as navigable waters. I wouldn't be surprised if the FAA simply took the power to regulate and gets a judge to sign off on it. Seems to be how things work--everything is legal and Constitutional so long as a judge agrees it is and the plaintiff/defendant doesn't want to fight the ruling. I love Mark Levin's book "The Liberty Amendments" because he reminds us that this form of judicial tyranny was not how the Constitution was meant to be interpreted.

 

Asking if Bezos is the next Steve Jobs is like asking if Kanye West is the new Michelangelo. Apples and Oranges. The whole Drone delivery thing can't work in major cities it was just a publicity stunt in my opinion.

We're running out of oil....sike!
 
CrashCourse1:

Asking if Bezos is the next Steve Jobs is like asking if Kanye West is the new Michelangelo. Apples and Oranges.
The whole Drone delivery thing can't work in major cities it was just a publicity stunt in my opinion.

Whoa there partner, I think you should rein in those hyperbolic analogies just a little bit. Bezos and Jobs are pretty similar. Super ambitious idea guys who took pride in taking existing ideas and perfecting them. The differences are petty compared to the similarities.

And I know it's hard to see past the NYC smog, but there are in fact millions of paying customers in suburbs and rural areas that would like fast delivery too.

 

I believe Bezos is taking initiative to incorporate a new strategy in the business however I wouldn't compare Steve Jobs and Bezos since innovation is creating something new but the drones is pretty much innovation which was introduced in the past what Bezos is doing is utilizing to enhance business operations.

 

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