Last Week's Market

monkeysama's picture
Rank: King Kong | 1,620

Last week's market seemed crazy to me. I made some pretty decent returns just day trading equities and ETF indexes (although I honestly don't know what my sharpe ratio was on the portfolio - if anyone has any good calculators for that that would be awesome). I'm just wondering what people think of the rally. We have some expectation of higher growth due to the tax bill and QE2, but I really have no idea how much of this growth is illusionary.

Would really like to hear people's thoughts.

Also, what are people's stock picks? It would be really cool if we could have like a market week in review thread on here, too. It would be a good discussion I feel.

Comments (13)

Dec 11, 2010

What made this weeks market crazy nothing happened. I expect us to trade higher through the end of the year so PMs can show solid returns for the year.

Things I am keying on

1) European Debt - keeping an eye on the peripheral spreads for Ireland Spain Portugal Italy.

2) China Rate hike - They raised reserve requirement by 50bps earlier this week and chatter is saying there will be a rate hike.

3) North Korea - No new developments there really but this is a sensitive issue for the market.

4) Banks finally performing - After spending the past 3 months consolidating banks are finally making short term highs. This is very good for the general market.

5) Buy the dip - it continues to work so until we get crushed and fail to rally have to respect this. I think it will have to be something new as far as a risk event as the above points I keyed on have likely already priced in the risk. Dip buying really supports the end of year chasing return thesis.

As far as stock picks I like the cloud space the most, in particular those with a market cap under 3bn. With the CML potential deal news out this week supports that industry consolidation is continuing. Still some stocks in the space that could rally considerably.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.

Dec 11, 2010

Sorry, dumb question, what's the cloud space?

Dec 11, 2010

cloud computing the next tech bubble

"Seeing this house and your fine sword and hearing how you're importing and exporting chinamen, let me guess, you must be fucking rich."
Kenny Powdersss

Dec 11, 2010

OK got my picks:
ALTID
NSC
INTC
HGSI
EPHE
XSD
IWS

Now I get to wait for Monday....boooo!

Also: OOoooohhhh...THAT cloud. Right.

Dec 11, 2010

I don't have a clue about the business models that prop up in cloud computing. But as far as technical innovation goes, that cake is finished.

I only see larger projects and larger budgets. Cloud computing did its main horsework 3 years ago, not it's just scaling upwards and that is a matter of other research areas not really related to cloud computing technology, if such a thing ever existed.

"Make 'Nanas, not war! "

Learn More

Boost your resume and land a finance job by passing the FINRA SIE. 264 pages & 1981 smart flashcards written by a former 8X top Fidelity instructor. Try it for 0 bananas here.

Dec 11, 2010

Well, there is some news out there this weekend:
http://it.slashdot.org/story/10/12/11/1940252/Feds...
So there should be upward blip on Monday for major players (google among them, but there share price is awfully high). But yeah, I agree with you Jerrey.

Who are the major players by the by?

Dec 12, 2010

Well it depends. Specialists in virtualisation differ from those in distributed architectures , differ from providers of security solutions for this kind of architecture. And overall there is no such general thing as a cloud-technology.

If you believe that a lot of small caps will switch their hardware architecture towards this, then just look for dumb companies that market themselves as the cloud-wizards and that offer simple-to-handle solutions to small to mid-size companies.
e.g. google might be one pick then. At least they are predestined due to their marketing strengthand their experience in handling additional capacity with their cheaper-than-everything crappy low-end linux clusters . :)

"Make 'Nanas, not war! "

Dec 12, 2010
Jerrey:

e.g. google might be one pick then. At least they are predestined due to their marketing strengthand their experience in handling additional capacity with their cheaper-than-everything crappy low-end linux clusters . :)

"Quantity has it's own quality" ~ Joseph Stalin

Dec 12, 2010

So Jerrey I dont get what your analysis points to. Do you see more upside in the cloud stocks or not. I am no expert in the cloud space but I watch a lot of the names and they can do nothing but go higher. I do not care they came up with the idea 3 years ago or not because the bottom line is the stocks are performing now.

I appreciate the analysis on the fundamentals but what about the stocks themselves?

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.

Dec 12, 2010

Dean Foods (DF) - milk monopoly in US that has struggled under recent environment
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) - strong sales not priced in

Dec 12, 2010
HarvardOrBust:

Dean Foods (DF) - milk monopoly in US that has struggled under recent environment
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) - strong sales not priced in

Video game companies are getting murdered these days - farmville made more than ALL of EA games. So that's a losing investment in my eyes.

Know nothing about food so I wouldn't invest in it.

Dec 12, 2010

Hey trade,

I would be an a**hole if I would pretend that I would know anything about the stocks related to cloud computing. I really don't know and can't give any advice . Sorry.

If you feel good about your targets,and you see a clear group of companies they market themselves to (the goVment is most probably not such), I would go for for it. In the end you are probably right on betting on cloud markets.

"Make 'Nanas, not war! "

Dec 12, 2010
Comment

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.