New York won't bounce back
Everyone says "nEW yORk CiTY ALwaYS bouNcES BAck" but lets be honest - 9/11 and Hurricane Sandy had little longterm impact on the city and aren't remotely comparable to 2020, and imo there is a solid chance that NYC never recovers to pre 2020 levels. The rent is higher, the bandwidth and latency and technology has improved to where working from home is possible, and the homeless are approaching SF levels of batshit crazy and are taking over the city. And the pandemic has driven the tourist $$$, the restaurants, the shopping, the bars, the entertainment, everything that makes the city worthwhile has been rendered moot. Why the fuck would you want to live in a 500 square foot apartment that costs thousands of dollars a month when you can live in Tahoe and work remotely?
See below article:
'A born and bred New Yorker has laid bare why the city will never recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, a dark week of looting in June and its ongoing struggle against escalating crime, homelessness and violence.
James Altrucher, who co-owns a comedy club in the city and also describes himself as an angel investor and author, is among the many who have fled New York City.
He and his family fled to Miami after the June riots and looting made them fear for their lives and their children's safety, when people tried to break into his apartment building.
He is convinced that the city will not 'bounce back', as many claim it will, and explains that unlike in previous times of crisis like 9/11 or the crime wave of the 70s, there is nothing bringing people back now because everyone can work remotely.
'Even in the 1970s, and through the ’80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, even when it was the crime capital of the U.S. or close to it, it was still the capital of the business world (meaning, it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity,' he wrote in his blog.
'It was culturally on top of its game — home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing. And it was probably the food capital of the U.S.
'NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never.
'In the middle of the polio epidemic, when little kids (including my mother) were becoming paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn’t go through this,' he wrote.
THE END OF NYC CULTURE
One of the things that used to attract people to the city is its endless amount of attractions. Now, all entertainment venues are closed for the foreseeable future.
'I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC, it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories.
'Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs.
'I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up.
'Now it’s completely dead.
“But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time.
“But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time.
This time is different. You’re never supposed to say that but this time it’s true. If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient, I hope you’re right.
“NYC has experienced worse.” No it hasn’t,' he wrote.
His comedy club are among those that have closed.
'It’s a great club. It’s been around since 1986 and before that it was a theater...we have no idea when we will open. Nobody has any idea.
'And the longer we remain closed, the less chance we will ever reopen profitably.
'Broadway is closed until at least the spring. The Lincoln Center is closed. All the museums are closed.
'Forget about the tens of thousands of jobs lost in these cultural centers. Forget even about the millions of dollars of tourist-generated revenues lost by the closing of these centers.
'There are thousands of performers, producers, artists, and the entire ecosystem of art, theater, production, curation, that surrounds these cultural centers. People who have worked all of their lives for the right to be able to perform even once on Broadway, whose lives and careers have been put on hold.
'I get it. There was a pandemic.
'But the question now is: What happens next? And, given the uncertainty (since there is no known answer), and given the fact that people, cities, economies loathe uncertainty, we simply don’t know the answer and that’s a bad thing for New York City. '
Among the biggest loss is the closure of restaurants.
'My favorite restaurant is closed for good. OK, let’s go to my second favorite. Closed for good. Third favorite, closed for good,' he said.
FASTER INTERNET MAKES WORKING FROM HOME EASIER THAN AFTER 9/11
'I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11.
'Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship and then quickly that area became the most attractive area in New York.
'And in 2008/2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, again much hardship, but things came roaring back.
'But… this time is different. You’re never supposed to say that but this time it’s true.
'If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient, I hope you’re right.
'I don’t benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I’ve lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back.
'But this time is different. One reason: Bandwidth.'
In 2008, the average bandwidth speed was megabits per second, which was not fast enough for a Zoom meeting. Now, it's 20 per second.
'There’s a before and after. BEFORE: No remote work. AFTER: Everyone can work remotely. The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that’s basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds.
'The Time-Life Building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan.
'We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth. Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything.
In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, “In Manhattan you practically trip over opportunities in the street.” Now the streets are empty.
'That’s what is different,' he said.
Later, he said bleakly: 'Businesses are remote and they aren’t returning to the office.
'And it’s a death spiral — the longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty.
'In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, “In Manhattan you practically trip over opportunities in the street.”
'Now the streets are empty.'
HOMELESSNESS AND CRIME ON THE RISE
Altrucher also cites a Facebook group where residents aired their concerns.
'In the last week: I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting.
'I’ve seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them. I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging, then stopping before going too far.'
Another said: 'I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight.
'My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street.
'I don’t think I have an answer but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC.
'I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 30% — more people are moving away than ever before."
lol @ whoever threw MS
I hope NYC bounces back soon though, fuck the homeless
seems like a shitty thing to say
I would say 95% of these homeless people are freeloaders,drug addicts, or mentally sick people that should be in psychiatric institutions. I highly doubt these are the standard homeless people who lost their jobs and are living on the streets because of no income and/or no place to go.
They are dangerous, mentally ill, violent, aggressive, and abuse drugs and alcohol if you give them money. We should give them resources and help them out, but they destroy neighborhoods and will destroy NY if they are left unchecked. Fuck em
YURRRRR
Big Sean - Bounce Back Music Video for anyone curious what the link was too
I mean if people can work remotely forever every city is going to see a bunch of people leaving, that isn’t exclusive to New York.
But you’re going to tell me, on WSO of all places, that a bunch of new restaurants/bars/businesses won’t spring up in the place of old ones that had to close? Especially if rents are way down? Okay.
Winter is coming
Just makes for prime rents come spring 2021
I would be willing to take the other side of that bet. It’s human nature to want to congregate where there are other people. COVID isn’t going to last forever and once it’s “safe”, people will run back to wherever has the most population density.
Same, I think this is an overreaction. Sure times maybe worse than before but over time things will recover.
I hope it bounces back... I don't have a hot take or anything, but I just really hope. I think the stuff you posted makes good points, but part of me also sides with the guy who commented above me.
Things are opening up in New York City a lot faster than I expected: retail was the first to open up, then restaurants a few months ago, zoos / outdoor attractions 4 weeks ago, gyms this week, schools and museums next month. And with all these gradual reopenings, cases have been able to decline week over week. Not to mention the rental market has been amazing which I'm guessing will keep a good portion of people in the city. Just moved into a new waterfront property that was offering like 4 months free on a 12-month lease. Anyways, we've had a very calculated and thoughtful approach to Covid-19. I'm actually pretty optimistic that New York will bounce back just fine but who knows. 2020 has been a hell of a year.
LMAO. NYC hasn't had a thoughtful or calculated approach about anything. The reality is, Covid burned through the population at an incredibly high rate and burned itself out. You see this in the hardest hit areas in the world--high burn rate means you've got a steep hill followed by a flat road.
The media's gaslighting about New York's covid performance takes the breath away.
Agreed. Shocking to me Cuomo is writing a book. Didn't approve shelter-in-place mid-to-late March, subway safe, nursing homes, etc. etc.
As it relates to other US States, yes, NYC has had a relatively more thoughtful approach. Sure - we could have had tighter restrictions but hindsight is 2020. I'm not aware of any other states that had as rigorous of a lockdown. Could you share any articles that highlight this "burn rate" because I honestly haven't been aware (possibile I've missed it). We were one one of the first states to lockdown and one of few who continued the lockdown until cases reached an all time low. Hell - there are states that never even issued a lockdown.
Opening up? We’re the only place in the world (I believe) where indoor dining isn’t open. 60% of restaursnt workers are still out of work. We have some of the highest unemployment in the country and I think it’s a very reasonable assertion that it’s due to the never ending lockdowns.
i still don’t understand the sentiment that NY is somehow the winner w/r/t Covid. We have the most deaths in the country by multiples and have probably reached some form of herd immunity at this point.
I don't understand how you can't understand this. Having the intelligence to put on pants in the morning is all it takes. New York is the most densely populated (large) city in the country - an order of magnitude more so than places that have been lax, like Houston. Moreover, it's the most frequently visited place in the country. So keeping the virus out would be impossible and controlling it is orders of magnitude more difficult than it is in a small rural town. Acting like a death-by-coronavirus today is equivalent to early April is facile - we know more about the virus, we know more about how to stop it from spreading, have more equipment and tests to deal with it, more information in general. New York had the great misfortune to get it first, and thus suffered disproportionately. The fact that the virus isn't still raging is a testament to the approach NYC has taken, which has been to listen to experts and respect the science behind what they're advising. New York was the test case for the country, and the country failed to learn the lesson. All you have to do is look at the trend lines to understand why New York's approach is being lauded. In a city where people live literally on top of one another, a horribly infectious virus basically isn't spreading anymore. Whereas in places where people decided that masks are an infringement on their Constitutional rights and that drinking chlorine was an effective way to "cure" the virus, you see that cases are still increasing. There is a proven plan for how to stop coronavirus from spreading, New York tested it out for everyone, and still half the country thinks getting plastered in a bar til one in the morning is more important.
Until you're willing for yourself and everyone you love and care about to be the next people to die because the virus spread more rapidly due to restaurant re-opening, shut the fuck up. It's real easy to sit behind a keyboard and say that others should die so that the economy keeps humming along. That's how you get a Russian Revolution - by treating people as disposable assets. The real solution is that we should have raising taxes, and not cutting them, and using the proceeds to fund social safety nets so that we don't have to have a fucking conversation where we're discussing sending people back to work, where they run an elevated risk of fucking death, because they're unemployed and need money.
Moreover, for what it's worth, we wouldn't even be here if it weren't for conservative red-state assholes who refused to take this seriously, because our stable genius President told them it was a liberal hoax, and didn't quarantine their citizens immediately. Other countries got this under control by taking concerted action - as always, we let the lowest common denominator fuck up our response, and as always, that's a mouth-breathing entitled Republican who thinks all that stands between tyranny and the people is their patriotic refusal to wear a mask.
It's not just COVID and homelessness, New York has also had awful leadership from De Blasio. The subway system is constantly falling apart and is burdened by pensions it will never be able to pay off. Rent's become way too expensive for most people. New York is rapidly losing finance jobs as well (not FO, but BO and MO) and isn't giving incentives for banks to keep most support staff around New York.
I won't disagree, but I suspect it depends on who you ask.
The subway system isn't "constantly falling apart". I'm not sure where you're getting that narrative. It's 100 years old and heavily trafficked, and anyone over the age of 40 belongs to a generation that decided that capital investment in any type of infrastructure wasn't worth their tax dollars, so yes... the subway needs maintenance. On the other hand, there are 245 miles of track serving nearly 6 million people a day - I'd say for the amount of use it gets, it's pretty efficient and in decent shape.
None of this is news. Rent has been "too high" for twenty years, and banks have been sending back and middle office jobs into northern Jersey for nearly as long.
And while people on this board are prone to forget it, finance isn't the totality of NYC anymore, and certainly not since 2008. It's a large part, but NYC also has an extremely fast growing tech sector, and is still the headquarters for a ton of other types of firms. That kind of inertia is extremely hard to overcome.
I think there are significant headwinds for people living in any city. Or for those municipalities themselves. I'm just not sure why New York is singled out - in fact, I'd consider it the most resilient. You can complain about the subway all you want, but the subway is a major draw in living here, regardless of condition. You complain about 5 minute train delays or decaying stations, but if you live in Atlanta or Houston or LA then you complain about sitting in an hour of traffic every day. Grass is always greener. The sheer scale of dining and cultural opportunities surpasses any other three cities in the country combined (my own unscientific estimate).
Yeah city is screwed, I don't know anyone making decent money who wants to go back. I left and won't be coming back. City will get younger etc, but if you are making bank taxes are only going up until they have radical changes in govt. Will wait for that to happen first.
Thank you for saying that. No body wants to address the ridiculously high taxes that the city has and how the gov't spends it awfully. Lest we forget the $850 million displaced by De Blasio's wife for "mental health" services. Aside from the brutal winters NY gets, I'm more than happy to move down to Miami and spend the rest of my life in a Red State with 0 state and local income taxes and a retired generation that will always vote for conservative policies. Way I see it, I know how to spend my money better than the government can or will ever know how to.
This entire post can be summed up as "I am bitter because my comedy club closed, and also am in a different sage of life where the attractions of NYC don't outweight the long-standing negatives that come with raising a family here."
This too shall pass. And anyone who says that the crime wave in the 70s or 9/11 were better than 5 months of not being able to eat indoors or go to a museum is a fucking asshole.
If anyone wants to make a case that urban centers will cease to be as important to economic growth as they have in the past, that's a reasonable argument to engage in. To say that NYC will not bounce back because of one bad month of COVID quarantine is the opinion of an uninformed ass.
What drives the economy of NY? Being the finance capital of the world and attracting the best human capital. This is in jeopardy, as the high paying jobs, FO, MO, and BO, slowly transition to other parts of the country.
Both banks and individuals are deciding for themselves that Texas/Florida etc offers pretty much everything they need with 1/4 the rent expense. NY is kind of like a decaying suburban strip mall - if an anchor tenant like JC Penney leaves or goes out of business, the entire place struggles to attract other businesses and slowly declines until it goes under. If the anchor tenant of finance leaves NY, the city will never recover. This is the key difference between the 70s and 80s imo
To be clear, the argument isn’t even really based on COVID19, it’s just accelerating the existing trends of jobs and talent leaving the city permanently
But "being the finance capital of the world" and "attracting the best human capital" are not synonymous, nor even close to it, despite the occasional delusion of these boards. One could make the argument that the former drives the latter, as the nightlife, culture, and other qualitative strengths that New York has helps keep finance jobs here, as they know the human capital is in NY and not Atlanta. Fashion, law, tech... these are all huge parts of the NYC job scene as well. I don't deny that they could move elsewhere, but everything interlocks and it would take a lot for that to change.
Yes, folks move to Florida or Texas. I'm not sure that has anything to do with rent. Or rather, I suspect those are folks who weren't long for NYC in the first place. I don't claim that everyone who moves here automatically falls in love - people hate NYC. But for someone who wants to be in a frenetic urban environment, NYC is still the epitome of that world. I think your comparison to an urban strip mall is a bad one. New York City is more like a high end shopping district. One tenant moving to a lower rent space a few streets over isn't going to spell the end of the area. 50% of them doing it all at once would. Back office finance jobs moving to Jersey City, or to Knoxville, TN or wherever, is one store moving out of dozens. And the moment Houston or Miami starts attracting all those front office banks, rents will shoot up and make it less attractive.
With all due respect, I'm not sure you know much about what was going on in the70s and 80s, you're view of NYC's economy is as blinkered as I would expect any finance person's to be, and I think the city is far more resilient than you give it credit for. Again, to the original article, this is an embittered man who is 40 years older than he was when he moved here complaining about how the city has changed. He has the gall to complain about someone being shot in Union Square, as if Central Park itself wasn't the most notorious drug den in the country when he moved here.
Super shortsighted. If NY bounced back after the mess it was in the 70s, then it can absolutely bounce back from the last 6 months. People have short memories, and many would rather live near other people, restaurants, etc. than isolate in the suburbs despite WFH
I think a lot of people are missing the biggest issue that arises from this. What 90% of people end up choosing to do doesn’t matter. The top 10% though do matter.
Per Cuomo, 1% of NYC’s population pays 50% of the tax revenue. These are the people most likely to leave because they can easily and comfortably go anywhere. And they surely have no interest in dealing with the rise in crime and homelessness
The city loses this revenue and it’s going to be a very poor outcome.
I think you’re overestimating the flexibility you have if you’re a 1% wage slave and your employer wants you back in the NYC office. You going to walk away from your cushy job?
And these 1% of people are moving to Florida
The 1% argument is the whole argument here. I am in that bracket and already said "f-you" to NYC. It wasn't even a decision as soon as you could see where things were heading. These people saying that it will bounce back etc etc are totally missing the big picture. If the people paying the bulk of the taxes want nothing to do with it, it will get dirtier, less efficient, more dangerous, and overall worse than cities that these people actually want to be - and no, not suburbs. The highest earners are more mobile than that.
The issue is that the attitude towards wealthy people is incredibly hostile, deficits are mounting, solution is to tax those people even more because govt never gets more efficient, and if you have any sense you will want to sever ties with these places ASAP. SALT is not getting rolled back and federal taxes are going up. Children arguing about restaurants and theaters could not be more myopic.
Do the math. If you make 8 figures, you can basically move to Miami and your take home pay goes up by > 25% net in a lower cost of living place. These are the people that NYC needs to court to have a shot at being decent in the future.
But yes, tons of young people making 500k a year will want to come back, so what? Will their bosses? This view is not short sighted at all, you just don't talk to that many people with 8 figure incomes paying the bulk of taxes. The 9 figure guys are out of my league, but I still know that they are already gone.
Edit: Cali is even more fked than NYC paying 16.8% tax to have homeless people sharing needles encamped on your front lawn.
OK. So why haven't they left? I mean, none of this is news. NYC has always had high taxes. NYC has always had a high cost of living. Has always been super liberal. Maybe not always - lets say for the last 20 years. NYC has been a magnet for terrorists, as we see from 9/11. and the various other nefarious plots we occasionally hear about. All of this is the case, and all of it has been the case for decades. And yet... wealthy people still choose to live here. Raise families here. Start businesses here. Something isn't connecting - I am aware that most of the conservative leaning folks on these boards don't understand that life is more than just a question of "how to I maximize my earnings," but even so, one has to contend with the fact that people still live in New York, still move here, despite all the taxes. All these 1% people have always had the ability to leave and go elsewhere, and they haven't. So just saying that they could is asinine. Give me a reason why this is the moment that everyone decides, "you know what, I've had my head up my ass for twenty years and never realized how high the taxes are! Florida here we come!" Maybe New Yorkers enjoy the fact that their governor seems to think that their lives are worth protecting, that public health is more important than keeping the beach open for spring break. Again, things that aren't "I could saving $10,000/year if I moved to Texas".
I think this take is short-sighted, generally speaking.
I think the road to recovery will be slow-er, but it will definitely bounce back.
You cite Restaurant and theater closings for the foreseeable future... if that is really something that made people want to come to NY, why would a temporary closing change your life plans and make you go live in Iowa with cows?
What will happen when a vaccine comes out and things start to re-open? Broadway, restaurants, tourist attractions? The fact that rents have plunged and may even go lower I think will eventually serve as catalyst for people to come back.
Terrible analysis of the actual longer term issues. No one is proposing to move to Iowa and live with cows. You have no perspective on the topic and actual factors driving quality of life and residency long term. The budget of NYC is not based on what an analyst making 150k a year thinks. Who making decent money is going to be the hero and move back quickly for lower rents to get nailed with a tax bill to pay for the deficit due to everyone else who left? They need very strong forward guidance on not just no new taxes, but lower taxes - good luck De Blasio - 0.00000000% probability.
But ya, the city gets more affordable and maybe the affordability offsets everything else (crime, inefficiency, dirtiness) if you're making like
.
You also have to look at the history element.
Reminds me of World War 1, it was a point where they had the technology to fight modern warfare, but had to adapt from old war tactics; i.e., if you only had muskets you could have firing lines in open fields; add in machine guns those tactics don't work.
The analysis that bc bandwidth is better people can move to other places is spot on. The only reason we haven't transitioned to WFH is bc going into the office was "the way we've always done it".
My main quesiton is, if people don't have to go into NYC, why won't those jobs immediately be shipped to the lowest cost providers; wouldn't that be a problem?
@ ironman32
This is the funny part -
On the one hand, all the white color yuppies are realizing they can work from home and there is no need for an office. Screw the man! Work from home! Blah blah blah. But the flipside of this is that once offices are no longer needed, employers will realize that they don't need to pay some schmuck $150k per year to work from home when they can just outsource the job for 1/4 the cost.
The whole bandwith/tech angle here is bullshit.
Why are we acting like Slack and Zoom are groundbreaking? Seriously who started this madness? I believe Chamath Palihapitiya is an investor in both, so maybe he's the lead suspect. Someone began a whisper campaign to spread groupthink across the yuppie world that Slack (glorified AOL IM) and Zoom (glorified Go2Meeting) have changed the way we live. I know everyone is secretly wondering what the big deal is, but are afraid to ask because everyone else seems convinced.
Let me end that for you now, by telling you what you already knew. We've had A+ quality video conferencing for at least 10 years. We've had sky-high rents and shitty commutes in big cities for a lot longer than that. WFH was always an obvious solution on paper, yet only now its the topic du jour. Do we really believe this wasn't heavily examined in the past? Of course it was, and many companies adopted remote to some degree. But it only moved as fast as it was meant to, because its not all that great.
NYC will be back, and James Altucher is ready to sell you the Brooklyn Bridge as soon as you're ready.
DeBozo is ruining the city, and the prospects of his term ending and someone intelligent getting elected are dire. If the city had a competent leader during this crisis, things wouldn’t be so bad. Same goes for Cuomo.
See your point but ultimately, urbanization is an inevitable trend. There is real value to having a critical mass of high-paying / high-functioning jobs in a densely populated idea. The thing that you should be careful of is that in any economy that is growing a few points above inflation, the countries tend to urbanize.
Maybe NY won't bounce back to 100% of what it was before, but I'd be shocked if it didn't recover to at least 90% 3-4yrs from now.
100% agree. I was born and raised here and the place is a total shithole right now. It “bounced back” under strong leadership in the past.
I saw this morning that 80% of NYC restaurants couldn’t pay their rent in full last month. Also, 60% of restaurant workers here are still unemployed. We’re one of the only places in the world where indoor dining is closed. But oh well, at least COVID cases are down! Remember to put aside that we had more deaths than any other state by factors of X, but we’re the big winner here!!
Yeah but this is also this James Altucher, the tool who kept posting these bitcoin ads on the ride up. I wouldn't listen to anything this asshat has to say, even if he is right.
BITCONNECT
NYC currently at a crossroads (and by proxy, the rest of America).
To the right, is the law and order, no holds barred, no sissy pants pacification Mayor who could take the city back from the brink. Think Giuliani back in 1994 and the crime stats to back it up (http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm).
To the left, is the current "Plague of Justinian" which is absolutely decimating the world economy. If you are a NWO disciple, then THIS is the seminal moment in history to finally execute plans that have been bubbling below the surface since Wilson and FDR.
It will get much,much worse (think Beame / Koch years) before it gets better. Much, much worse.
For those of us alive during the 70s, we remember. We remember the homeless, the disgusting subway, the squeegie men, the rampant corruption,the druggies trying to break into your car at the entrance of the Lincoln...every single day and Times Square, when it wasn't f'ing Disney World.
Combine the plague and technological enhancements and the city's days are numbered.
Sure, JPM, etc will maintain a presence in Midtown, keeping some jobs here, but the moment NYC/NJ goes California with Wealth taxes, trading taxes, increased income taxes, taxes, taxes, taxes....that will be the last bell.
Sorry to sound so negative, but the cards have already been dealt, and NYC is left holding 7-2 off.
Namaste
D.O.U.G.
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