Call the non-farm payrolls!!!
It’s that time of the month monkeys. The first Friday is right upon us and the all-important nonfarm payroll numbers will get traders sweating in the edge of their seats early tomorrow morning.
As you all know the figures have been especially sucky lately, last month’s numbers for example absolutely torpedoed the equity rally but, inspired by Revsly’s post earlier this year, I figured we could have a little fun with it.
What do you think the number would be?
Economists are expecting it to bump by 60,000, mostly thanks to the 45,000 returning Verizon workers but, better than expected ADP figures coupled with a downward trend in the labor markets is making it a little harder to call.
Deutsche Bank thinks it’ll be higher, around +70,000.
The unchanged reading on payrolls in August was actually +45k ex-strikers, and our forecast of +70k in September is actually +25k after accounting for their return.
Same with BoA.
ADP private payrolls increased 91k in September, nearly matching the gain of 89K in August. This leaves us comfortable with our forecast for nonfarm payrolls to increase 70,000…
But the bears at GS don’t seem to share their enthusiasm.
In contrast, the employment component of the report fell by 2.9 points to 48.7. This indicator suggests downside risks to September payroll employment growth, at least partly offsetting the better-than-expected news from the ADP report this morning. Overall we see a bit of upside risk to our forecast for a 50,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, but we have not made any changes to our estimate.
So what’s your number monkeys?
I’m calling it at +55k, you?
SB to whoever gets closest to it.
44k
-18k
Is this their pay for the month?
Traders pay?
+75k. I'm long, so it'd better be good.
30k. Am short, otm puts.
+80K
+56K
I'll be the outlier here and go with -20K, and throw in a downward revision for Aug to boot
I hope it's good. I want my portfolio to go up another 5-8% so I can get into all cash.
spread up 30k down 40k
+40
+58K
Watch me make a fool of myself: 83K and unemployment rate @ 9.1587209999%.
60k...
Hey who likes Michelle Meyer? What is she...1-10, 10 being you'll bang her faster than you can say Hi?
+25k. I might be lowballing a little but I seriously doubt we'll hit those estimates. If it weren't for all the positive surprises we've seen this month, I'd be going negative.
Even if you get it right, you get it wrong. This number will surely be revised next month and the month after that. Plus again at year end.
61k
Nose goes for giving Jorge his banana if he's right.
Revising my number a bit lower to +48k, and yeah, what happens if I win?
Hey LIBOR, way to be in the spirit of things man. Haha. Couple minutes to go...
40 SECONDS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
10 seconds ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~@!#$@#%$^%&^**(
And its 103k
Fuck me
UP 103 K
Fugazi... what LIBOR said.
+15 on spoos instantly..
you are doing a good job obama keep up the good work!
Wow Aug got revised from 0 to 57k. I hate to say this, but shit is looking good.
Eat it, hatin ass bears. Where are my SBs
agree all eyes on europe
and financials
All eyes on China unless EU officials completely screw something up (kind of likely the way things have been going). The dollar's recent strength might start hurting us before too long though.
Dammit!!! But yeah, things are all looking good... Enjoy your nanners short.
I don't know if any your guys noticed, but with the 103K they included the 45K Verizon workers coming back to work. Therefore the actual number is only 58K.
Short I am still giving you a SB.
Non-Farm Pay-ROLL CALL! (Originally Posted: 01/06/2011)
After a very solid ADP employment report a few days ago, what do you all think the number will be?
Just for reference, current economist estimate is ~175k, some people dream bigger than others (see: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/number-day-580000-hint-tomorrows-nfp-w…)
Just for fun, I'd generally have better luck picking a number randomly.
I'm gonna go with +215k.
182k ; )
This is a very important # tomorrow and will likely be the next catalyst for a move higher. Lots of estimates re-stated higher overnight and today.
My take is 200k+, or 262k if i could wager intrawebs money on it.
42
One hundred billion
187 - MDK
187k is my guess.
You guys are all wrong. 196K is the number. I'm going to come back here tomorrow and tell you all how right I was.
umm 192k
150K
100
250
200
200k
Just so we are all clear here, 'cause I see a few numbers without the K next to them... I meant that I think the NFP is going to come in at +42... not 42K but 42...
Shorted SPY 127 Straddle 3.25 on Monday looking to cover today after the announcement. I think a number in line with estimates to a slightly higher number Im in good shape. A bad number we will see a sell off and vol goes up. Regardless im covering today
Shorted SPY 127 Straddle 3.25 on Monday looking to cover today after the announcement. I think a number in line with estimates to a slightly higher number Im in good shape. A bad number we will see a sell off and vol goes up. Regardless im covering today
CapToed wins... 103k
Thank you.
At least unemployment is finally down a little.
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