Comments (23)

Most Helpful
Dec 20, 2018

Overall, the industry is very attractive to banks for two reasons: O&G is incredibly capital intensive and project-based. In order for a firm to make money, firms need to first spend (raise) money. Because each well has a finite life, firms need to continue to drill new wells (which requires more capital). In order for a firm to drill a well, they must first own the acreage/mineral rights. This translates to repeat business for banks in the capital markets and high A&D activity as firms buy/sell acreage.

"Normal" levels of cyclicality in oil and gas commodity prices are actually good for banks because it stimulates M&A/Cap Markets activities, e.g. when prices are high, firms have excess cash for acquisitions, etc. and when prices are depressed, firms tend to divest non-core assets to create cash.

Obviously prolonged levels of depressed commodity prices and a bearish outlook on the industry is not good. If this slump continues, there will likely be a large slowdown in capital markets activity in the upstream vertical (as it is increasingly less economic to extract hydrocarbons) and overall slower M&A activity due to lower cash flows. These factors obviously hurt banks who primarily provide these services. E&P companies with higher breakeven costs and OFS companies will be hit the hardest; the lower cash flow stream might cause them to violate covenants, default on interest, etc. which leads to increased restructuring deal flow for key banks.

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Dec 21, 2018

Awesome overview. I'd just add that prices are still economic for most operators in the US. Drilling activity will slow but producers will be find (for the most part). Besides, its all OPEC BS anyway - prices will bounce back.

Dec 21, 2018

Great explanation, thanks for taking the time to write that out.

I was kind of surprised to see this post. Oil prices are more normal at $45 than above, historically speaking. Check out this chart from Macrotrends.com:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

Dec 20, 2018

They are not in shit, so far there is no alternative and the prices, although they will be jumping up and down, nothing drastically terrible happens.

Dec 21, 2018

fake news, O&G will be fine

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Dec 21, 2018

If my knowledge is correct, TPH launched a new Calgary office with like 15 people in the midst of the 2016 downturn.

The good banks will thrive on the volatility, the shitty banks will lay people off. Capital markets will be tough, especially oilfield services, for a good while. It could be a year before a relevant O&G IPO happens, but believe me there will be some decent M&A around the corner.

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Dec 21, 2018

TPH also seemed to push out a significant amount of people recently, but that seemed to be more of a PWP merger issue.

Dec 21, 2018

Gross overreaction. In reality, the industry thrives in this kind of environment as decision making is much more diligent in terms of project economics.

Dec 21, 2018

You're a bit off. Over a career as a banker, volatility is expected, however deals are boom or bust for O&G.

2015 might have had 3 notable deals off the top of my head. One of them fell through and was cancelled.

2017 and 2018 each at least 10 +$5B.

Dec 21, 2018

rip DB O&G

What concert costs 45 cents? 50 Cent feat. Nickelback.

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Dec 21, 2018

pretty sure that's more of a knock on DB and not the space in general

midstream restructuring will take a pause because most of the restructuring has taken place, but as companies remove IDRs and start retaining more cash, there will be more capex and potentially expansion. maybe not a great time for RX and M&A unless we see a consolidation, but DCM should be just fine as well as the space in general

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Dec 21, 2018

touche

What concert costs 45 cents? 50 Cent feat. Nickelback.

Dec 21, 2018

This is a far overstep in connecting correlation with causation. DB fell because they were a terrible bank, not because of the industry. As a note, some of the energy banks had their biggest years ever at the same time that DB was collapsing.

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Dec 21, 2018

There is a shift in strategy in the O&G world. E&P companies are focusing on generating free cash flow rather than production growth, which means they can fund more of their operations internally. That is the goal at least. And that means less capital markets activity. M&A goes hot and cold, but if the industry is crap, that will decline as well. O&G was a honey hole for bankers for several years (2010-2015), deals deals deals, both M&A and cap markets, now it's coming back full circle. I think we are learning that shale companies generally don't create any value with crude <$60.

Controversial
Dec 21, 2018
Texas Tea:

There is a shift in strategy in the O&G world. E&P companies are focusing on generating free cash flow rather than production growth, which means they can fund more of their operations internally. That is the goal at least. And that means less capital markets activity. M&A goes hot and cold, but if the industry is crap, that will decline as well. O&G was a honey hole for bankers for several years (2010-2015), deals deals deals, both M&A and cap markets, now it's coming back full circle. I think we are learning that shale companies generally don't create any value with crude <$60.

Spot on. The best plays have field level breakevens in the high 30s low 40s , add in land costs and take it to the corporate level and you are losing money.

The best rock has been drilled up or has parent wells in place with degradation to follow (some tier 1 areas will see major degradation, others should be manageable.) Completion design has likely peaked with major operators like PXD retrograding their completion designs after pushing limits of sand placement.

PE has thrown so much money into this system that there are too many shale companies, too many shit management teams running them. There is no public market exit (used to be a problem for gas players, now its all players) and the private money is stuck with a buffet of portcos that they cannot sell and cannot merge unless someone blinks on valuation and takes a loss. At recent 60 dollar oil, you could stomach some div recap deals for the right companies, now even that option is toast. I guess we see another round of restructurings, more zombie co's and some M&A of higher quality companies. The institutional money for PE will have to say no mas at some point and stop this nonsense.

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Dec 21, 2018
dutchduke:
Texas Tea:

There is a shift in strategy in the O&G world. E&P companies are focusing on generating free cash flow rather than production growth, which means they can fund more of their operations internally. That is the goal at least. And that means less capital markets activity. M&A goes hot and cold, but if the industry is crap, that will decline as well. O&G was a honey hole for bankers for several years (2010-2015), deals deals deals, both M&A and cap markets, now it's coming back full circle. I think we are learning that shale companies generally don't create any value with crude <$60.

Spot on. The best plays have field level breakevens in the high 30s low 40s , add in land costs and take it to the corporate level and you are losing money.

The best rock has been drilled up or has parent wells in place with degradation to follow (some tier 1 areas will see major degradation, others should be manageable.) Completion design has likely peaked with major operators like PXD retrograding their completion designs after pushing limits of sand placement.

PE has thrown so much money into this system that there are too many shale companies, too many shit management teams running them. There is no public market exit (used to be a problem for gas players, now its all players) and the private money is stuck with a buffet of portcos that they cannot sell and cannot merge unless someone blinks on valuation and takes a loss. At recent 60 dollar oil, you could stomach some div recap deals for the right companies, now even that option is toast. I guess we see another round of restructurings, more zombie co's and some M&A of higher quality companies. The institutional money for PE will have to say no mas at some point and stop this nonsense.

This guy gets it. Whoever is throwing monkey shit is just not there yet. I think there is one public (non-major) E&P I'd own right now with confidence.

Dec 26, 2018

This is a 100% money comment.

Dec 21, 2018

There's a lot of interesting M&A opportunities with decreased multiples. I think strong teams, with good assets, will be able to pick and choose from the bargain bin.

Will it be as fun as earlier in the decade? No. Am I confident I will see some deal flow? Yeah.

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Dec 21, 2018

But multiples are relative... when everyone's multiple is compressed it doesn't matter... no one has a premium currency. IF they do have that premium currency, means they have the best combination of management/balance sheet/asset quality. Because the management team is quality, they know that M&A doesn't work, especially in the E&P world. There is reason they trade at that premium multiple.. why mess it up with ill-fated M&A?

Dec 21, 2018

Both of your usernames are the most "I work in O&G" names I could think of aha

Dec 21, 2018
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