The Death of.... Everything?
Even before COVID, the death knell was sounding for malls, department stores with the increasing rise and size of Amazon. Some even predicted the demise of restaurants and grocery stores as options like meal kits, food delivery, grocery delivery became more prevelant.
Then COVID hit which brought news of “the end of offices” because everyone can work from home.
Today, we got the news that Warner Bros will be sending their entire 2021 slate to HBO Max as well as theatres which people say marks the end of the theatre industry.
So, once Amazon, meal delivery, COVID, streaming, etc. kills off everything? What’s left?Many of the things that are being “killed” are part of American culture. Going to the movies is date night or a family activity. Going shopping is something to do. Even going to work is reason to leave the house and get some social interaction. Don’t get me wrong, I love the conveniences of modern life. That said, is the death of everything really what we want?
Once offices, stores, movies, etc are dead, what do we do? Are we all going to be working from home, getting everything delivered, streaming shit and never leaving the house? That sounds miserable.... oh wait, it IS miserable!
Will there be a backlash against killing off all these things as people realize how much they miss being able to leave their houses to do things? Will something new take the places of the things that have been eliminated? I’m curious to hear everyone’s thoughts!
I get your point about malls, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that the restaurant and grocery industries as a whole were going anywhere (pre-COVID)
I don't think anyone wants them to go away, but it is an unintended consequence of the "convenience" economy. For example, while no one thinks the concept of a restaurant is going to die, many restaurants can't compete with the cloud kitchens that are popping up on GrubHub/Uber Eats/Postmates/Doordash. I understand this consolidation via competition is a normal part of the business cycle. This is my personal opinion and not based in anything other than my experience and some anecdotes from others: This consolidation is ultimately not going to be desired by consumers as they realize their already very consolidated food options (Yum!, Darden, etc.) will become even more consolidated.
The industries won’t go away completely but they will become consolidated and app-ified. People are getting lazier, more entitled, and less self aware (of what they can afford, among other things) with each generation and “boomer” (incredibly rude and irreverent term imo) sectors like grocers/ CPG suppliers will have to keep up.
Not saying that it’s a good thing—it honestly appalls me that kids making 1/5 what I do are willing to pay an $8 premium to get a box of water delivered because they don’t want to walk outside for 5 minutes—but it’s probably going to happen.
Stop complaining. Stop questioning the media. Wear your mask, stay indoors, consume Amazon products and Doordash takeout food, and don't socialize with anyone ever again except through zoom
Are you shit posting from your mom's basement, prospect?
You're a non-target prospect using prospect as an insult, lmao
I'm no expert, but feel a lot of stuff will be fine. Even retail will be alright, just not bad retail. I don't have any data to support this, only anecdotal evidence, but going out is a lot of fun. Ordering everything online takes away from the expereince. Imagine a world where "friends" or "dates" gathared over Zoom to have lunch, dinner or drinks instead of going out. Conveinence is important, but so is having fun and going out to movies, going shopping, eating out, etc all those things are fun and I don't think you get the same satisfaction from any of those activites if you do them all online.
The scary thing is that I'm in a really transient area where you need to make at least 1 new close friend a year or you'll run out of friends in 5 years. 2020 has been a total loss. You can't make new friends via Zoom.
I don’t want to sound like a bitch, but it’s been kind of lonely this year for me and I’m sure for many others as well. Haven’t really hung out with friends as much as I’d like too and haven’t connected to anyone in my Zoom classes, let alone make new friends. Hopefully, 2021 will be better and Zoom “social gatherings” can die an awful death.
Always take everything with a grain of salt because people overreact. After 9/11, it was said that people would never again feel safe working in tall office buildings and that NYC would die.
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I think there is a lot of panic and acute commentary being made about the environment in general right now as it relates to offices / dining etc. This is a bit off the cuff but I do think once a vaccine has been commercially distributed and accepted, a lot of orgs (both managers and employees) will feel compelled to encourage working from the office again. Yes, I know a lot of companies have announced permanent WFH given they've proved it works but I do think that going back to the 1) human element of interacting with colleagues and 2) allowing workers to go back to having a tangible separation between work and home will definitely be a part of the narrative to get people back in the office.
As for dining and whatnot I definitely think that once people get back to not wearing masks and interacting in larger crowds, we may hopefully see a resurgence whether it's gradual or steep.
Dude, take it easy. Rub one out if needed.
Humans, especially society like ours, craves socialization and human interaction.
Do people go to bars just to get drunk? No. Getting drunk at home is a lot cheaper, but where's the fun it that? People could've done that all along.
Movie theaters were doing fine pre-COVID even when Netflix was around. Warner is trying to capitalize on the times by taking market share from Netflix and others. They also can't wait much longer for movie theaters to reopen to generate revenue from expensive film productions. Personally, I think Warner's strategy is going to back fire. Netflix is successful because it was innovative. Now you have everyone trying to copy/paste. Also movie theaters charge per PERSON. Direct to viewer? Get ready for 20 people packing into living rooms.
When I used to go to the movies, I would take Uber, eat at a restaurant before the movie, buy popcorn during, and go out for drinks after. Of course it was expensive, but you don't think people realize that? It was an entire experience.
Even malls. The shitty outdated ones are dying off. But the strong ones owned by Simon, Brookfield-GGP, Macerich, etc. are getting stronger. Many brands that started online/direct-to-consumer are opening brick and mortar locations. Even fucking Amazon, ironically.
Food meal kits? Haha. Expensive, labor intensive, and skimpy portion sizes. Mail delivered Lean Cuisine and shit. I go to restaurants because the food tastes better, which can be relatively healthy, I can pick what I'm in the mood for, great customer service (otherwise there's Yelp for that), and when dining-in was a thing, it was easy/fun to meet people to have a meal with.
Hybrid WFH/office is the way of the future. Not a zero sum game. I hated going into the office everyday and hate WFH everyday now. There needs to be some middle ground.
Challenging times indeed. I'm sure there's opportunity somewhere. Is there any alternative to being optimistic? Being pessimistic just leads to despair.
...too much adderall today, OP?
Meal kits will in no way replace restaurants and grocery delivery comes from grocery stores. COVID isn't ending offices. Movie theaters are gross anyhow and losing them would be a net positive.
Your post-COVID life will not be dramatically different from your pre-COVID life. You'll go on dates, eat out, travel, buy groceries, and go to work.
Restaurants will definitely recover post-covid and supermarkets have been doing well during covid anyway so your death knell for all these different industries is inaccurate. However, I do think it remains to be seen how much things like office real estate and airlines recover post covid. It's so striking to see first hand people telling my family that they have got rid of their Manhattan offices for good (my dad probably is himself). These are all however small businesses (lawyers, psychiatrists, accountants) so I really hope major companies don't decrease their office presence/increase work from home. The NYC area commute as much as it can suck supports a big part of its economy from coffee shops to the public transit system. And there are forecasts that business air travel will decrease well over 25% post covid which is a disaster for the airlines and travel in general (think how much the fares will increase with so much less demand).
Losing movie theaters is a bit sad but streaming is categorically better than the media environment before it. That's a clear example where capitalism led to much better content, less ads, and lower prices for the consumer. Cable TV was truly awful.
Individuals who are isolated and atomized are easier to control. As an added bonus, you will soon have to show your COVID vaccination card to do anything you used to take for granted in your former life.
I'm on board with this so long as I can get back to my former life.
Your life in a transient area where you have to make at least one new good friend a year? Lol, sad.
Some experiences can not be replaced with digital services, that is the reality. You are right that "bad" services that were dying anyway are "gone" or on their way out. (bad shopping malls are an example, but high-end malls are still a great experience. i.e. places like the Mall of America are a tourist magnet)
During lockdown a few friends and I used a service to watch a movie together, through digital means. This means we were sitting in front of our laptops and monitors to watch a movie. There were other smaller pictures-in-pictures of my friends who I could see "as if" they were next to me. The entire experience sucked so much. There were lags in the movie, lags from my friends' streams, and so on.. it was not like sitting in the same room.
Others have mentioned dates, coffee meetings, sales pitches, or just the general experience of "being outside". won't go away at all. There will be consolidation and, sadly, some smaller businesses won't survive this.
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