The new market driver-----Populism

What does Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump have in common? Both considered populist, what happens in a populistic market environment? I'll tell you, but first. Leave your ego at the door.

So generally rationale goes more and more out the window when people get excited, people's passions are excited. The animal instinct kicks in, so what does this have to do with how the market will react? It's simple, in a bubble you never really know you're in a bubble. While the private sector is throwing billions at tech companies that will end up underperforming all these effects are coming from one cause, human emotion. You see in a populist environment people tend to ignore facts or even warning signs. They huddle into what 1860 psychologist call a "Crowd" now a crowd is the most beautiful thing to me on this earth. If history has any say a crowd has the notorious reputation of being unpredictable and uncontrollable. Now if you look closer and not get complacent on me I'll tell you that a crowd can be excited and controlled by their passions. All while truth bearers like me get burned alive because if history has taught us anything, it's that people hate the truth. I'd like to thank my mom for creating such a fool. Now when crowds enter markets they obviously create an effect which is the cause for most people going broke trying to predict where the crowd will go but that's another story. So in a populist market, a crowd seeks retribution from a government that they feel has cheated them. They are angry, they aren't thinking clear. How does this affect the average speculator (I'm sorry I meant ABOVE average) aka you? I'll tell you, you win. You see markets become more irrational during these times. The speculator that gives way to logic and rationale loses and begs the crowd to keep his head. But what makes it so great will also decide it's fate, people become greedy. They forget about the needy, whales and sharks get scared and warn that these levels won't bare. Then if you're not careful, the crowd becomes aware. Little by little each individual get back his psyche because you see in a crowd you have no individuality, you become one with the crowd. Just another sheep waiting to get slaughtered, but you can still win. Just don't get overleveraged like so many speculators have on their tombstone as the cause of death. To quote the Oracle,"Every smart guy is tempted by leverage, and some of them are broken by it". "Irrational exuberance", is the phrase of the day. Watch out for it, it will creep up while you're back is turned. It will smile in your face while it unclamps the floor you stand on. It will sleep next to you but have one eye open, it is a demon that is in everyone and if you're not careful.......Lol, I'm straying from the point, what I really mean to say is that logic and rationale doesn't work in a populist driven market. It can't, we would all just be bookies if that were the case. An efficient market!??? Omg so smart....... But to quote another old white man, "This is a bull market, you know!"

p.s. In actuality, we spend all this time and effort on finding Alpha when stocks as an asset class itself have outperformed every investment vehicle throughout time. In a way, it can be simple, but I'd already be burned alive by now.