In the light of a surprising victory by Trump, groups of people are recalibrating and doing the math on what it means for them personally.
I thought it might be helpful for some for a quick recap on Trump's view on NAFTA and specifically how it affects Canadians in (or looking to come to) the U.S. Particularly, for those using or looking to use the popular TN-1 visa (which you will recall from my previous post, is a NAFTA visa).
This is usually the new grads, laterals or people who are up for renewal and still haven't gotten the H1-B, green card or citizenship yet.
Would Trump really leave NAFTA?
... Or is that an empty political promise? Keep in mind Canada is the US's largest trading partner. CIBC recently released a report speculating that if Trump moved to withdraw from NAFTA, it is likely that it could be replaced by a Canada-U.S. deal excluding Mexico (potentially similar to the one we had in place before NAFTA). So even if it went away, there is a potential it might come back in some form between us. Although, it would be challenging to watch that get sorted out.
And if He actually left?
As President, Trump could exit NAFTA without Congress. He would invoke NAFTA's Article 2205. It simply says that a party may withdraw from the agreement six months after it provides written notice. If he does that, the NAFTA TN-1 Visa would obviously disappear along with NAFTA.
Hope that helps or is at least mildly insightful. And if it all goes south... just go north. I wonder if we'll start getting questions about Americans wanting to use NAFTA to come to Canada!