What to expect of rental market this summer? (COVID19 Impact?)

So what is the general consensus for what's going to happen to those looking to sign or renew leases for housing this summer? Curious to hear what everyone's thoughts are on given that most guys like Greystar aren't looking to cut deals with potential and current tenants and are pricing leases under typical demand assumptions. I suspect they're betting on a near term market recovery and the fact that current tenants don't want to put in the effort to move right now (although this contradicts not offering deals to new tenants).

Seems to me general job instability along with less grads coming into the job market this Summer / Fall will lead to more vacancies among rental properties especially in high COL cities. This affects a few demographics. I don't see the typical influx of summer interns happening anymore given talks of virtual internships / internships being cancelled, don't see employees looking to relocate given job uncertainty, and I don't see as many new grads 1) moving to cities like NYC / SF / LA given that having your offer rescinded is becoming a reality and 2) less people will be looking to live in high-end luxury building going into a recession. Just my two cents.

Assuming we go continue to be in a quarantine state for the rest of the summer, how do foresee rental markets adjusting for less demand in residential apartment / home rentals? Will landlords / developers lower rents, offer concessions, or continue to price leases normally? How screwed are landlords?

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Comments (6)

Apr 11, 2020 - 5:27pm

This is market-specific, just like all real estate.

Can't really speak to class B-C multifamily in secondary markets, but class A in coastal markets will be fine because most of those tenants did not / will not lose jobs.

vanative:

I don't see the typical influx of summer interns happening anymore given talks of virtual internships / internships being cancelled

This is a population most landlords (in New York) tend not to do business with. Doesn't make sense for LLs to keep units off the market during peak rental season by giving a 3-month lease.

vanative:

Assuming we go continue to be in a quarantine state for the rest of the summer, how do foresee rental markets adjusting for less demand in residential apartment / home rentals?

I'm seeing landlords offer lease extensions at favorable rates (no increase / 5% discount).

vanative:

How screwed are landlords?

Most are covering their costs, they'll be fine.

edit: typos

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Apr 12, 2020 - 1:54am

What multifamily developers with product coming out this summer?

Apr 12, 2020 - 2:22am

I think the best deals will be found in the condo-for-rent space. STR owners who may have had their homes listed on VRBO or AirBnD are getting hammered right now. I'm expecting to see owners willing to sign a lease close to par with their mortgage just to buy themselves time to see if tourism is going to pick back up.

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Apr 13, 2020 - 10:34am

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