Where are we in the market cycle ? (Commercial Multi-family/Retail)
In my limited research, what I have personally found is that the current real estate market cycle seems to be in a state of hyper supply. It comes to my understanding that a complete cycle happens approximately every sixteen-eighteen years and this happens in four stages: recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession. I'm not extremely familiar to whether this applies to the whole market or if this is specifically residential/commercial.
Are my findings on par or is there a better understanding of these cycles?
Also what other variables contribute in effecting CRE market cycles?
I would assume it's more complex than this, but if anyone can provide their input I am all ears!
http://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/388.pdf
Interesting read
It's a great read.
OP, what's important to remember is that there is not one market and there is not one cycle. Various cities (and even submarkets) are in various stages of the real estate cycle, as are, as you alluded to, various product types.
Okay I understand. So, if there are various market cycles within different cities/supermarkets, then how to you proficiently follow these different cycles?
I'm primarily concerned with multi-family investment properties.
Definitely!
Thank you
Retail is going through a pretty dramatic change, but overall fundamentals are strong. We're past the peak, but I think there is plenty of runway left.
The real estate investment community is different than it was pre-2009. Investors and Lenders are much more disciplined, and I do not believe that the market is over-leveraged like it was pre-GFC.
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