Which industries do you think are set to grow as US demographics change?

As Hispanics and African-Americans increase their shares of the US population, which industries would benefit most from secular growth? One thing that comes to my mind if Hispanic food and entertainment channels but what do you guys think? Will the minorities become even more 'Americanized' or will there be a significant change in US consumption?

 
DickFuld:

You're forgetting the most impactful demographic change: the aging population.

DickFuld:

You're forgetting the most impactful demographic change: the aging population.

I agree but how do you play that one? Short SS? The retirement community thing is so overplayed that I don't think there's opportunity for anything unless there you're a real estate guy who can find land to build a new one. Pharma for drugs I'd guess is priced in (not a public markets guy myself). I'm currently involved, as a side thing, in a company that streamlines healthcare providers processes and it's largely driven by the increased volume due to aging boomers but it's tough to find those niches. I think it's a great idea but it may fail.

I like the Latino market and we funded the expansion of a traditional US retail grocer in a heavily Latino market to branch into launching an Hispanic brand and it's been wildly successful but the operator had a top notch Latino spearhead the thing and design and operate the stores. Without his absolute expertise not only in being Latino but also being very well versed in retail grocery we wouldn't have done it and it would t have succeed.

 

Funeral Services, check SCI. Co. has had its share of headlline risk but that was some time ago. The LT trend is pretty undeniable.

Rarely will any of my posts have enough forethought/structure to be taken seriously.
 

fwiw, these are long term trends in my mind, not "trades" and not just US demographics. here's what industries I think stand to benefit from aging demographics

  1. funeral services

  2. healthcare, specifically big pharma, med device, drug manufacturers, bioscience, etc., I think insurers like UNH are probably ok but the jury's still out

  3. GM (old folks love buick & caddy)

  4. south florida (JOE...actually I wish you could long the Villages)

  5. asset managers, let's face it, as much as people like jack bogle and the motif guy and betterment and wealthfront want to believe that every investor on the face of the earth will go DIY, they're just plain wrong. many people are and always will be willing to pay for advice on how to invest their money, and asset managers could benefit from this. this is only valid if there's no 30+ year secular bear market in bonds. I personally don't think that happens, I think rates normalize at 4-6% and stay there, rather than going into the teens as they did in the 70s, so we may have 7-10 years of negative returns on a price basis for bonds, but not a long term bear market imo

sidebar: I'm completely serious about 1, 2 & 5, completely kidding about 3 & 4, I think there will be much more halfbacks going forward (go from Tri state, down to FL, halfway back to VA/NC/SC/GA), so you could long REITS that buy houses on rainbow row in Charleston or mountain houses in NC or golf communities in Williamsburg.

Moreover, food production, as world population expands to its maximum capacity (some experts put this around 10bn) we will need to produce more food on the same amount of land. without starting a GMO debate, cos like DD, SYT, MON, etc., will all benefit from this because traditional farming methods are not going to produce that amount of crop yield. if there's a way to play water, this would benefit from an expanding population, but I haven't done the research on water supply, desalinization, stuff like that.

sidebar: you could justifiably say that every industry will benefit from a booming population, I just chose these because they make the most sense long term to me.

Unlike most people, I'm not sold on alternative energy, I still thing the gap in cost between those and nat gas/petrol is too wide. while people say we're going to run out of oil (and I don't dispute the scientific fact that hydrocarbons are limited in the earth's crust), they've said that before. the thing is we will continue to discover new ways to drill and suck the oil out of the ground, so I think you play oilfield companies and to some extent petrol companies. on that note, I'm not sold on the giants however, difficult to see how massive companies like XOM COP RDS CVX and the like can grow faster than smaller firms like VLO and MPC.

also OP, I think you're plain wrong on the hispanic and black (don't say african american, most of us have been on US soil as long as whites, and you wouldn't call yourself western european american, would you?) stuff. yes, more hispanics are coming in, but I think you have to look at that from a pure population increase perspective, consumer industries period will benefit regardless of color. it's not like you can long KFC thinking that fried chicken consumption will go up or long tapatio hot sauce because there's more hispanics here. America is pretty culturally diverse from a consumer perspective, I'd be shocked if single digit % increases in hispanic populations (don't see any more blacks coming in unless they are actually from Africa) moved the needle on any one industry.

 

Water is a simple theme but an aspect to consider is who is really demanding new water infrastructure? In many cases the expansion is in the hands of local municipalities, which adds a degree of complexity as different areas have different budgets priorities etc. I know there is a global water etf from guggen ticker CGW, looks like it was doing well this year but has fallen hard recently.

Rarely will any of my posts have enough forethought/structure to be taken seriously.
 
Nightstar:

As Hispanics and African-Americans increase their shares of the US population, which industries would benefit most from secular growth? One thing that comes to my mind if Hispanic food and entertainment channels but what do you guys think? Will the minorities become even more 'Americanized' or will there be a significant change in US consumption?

Government.

“Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do”
 

What markets will increase the most? The black market of course.

But in reality, real estate should be the biggest winner. Unless ownership trends and percentages drastically change in these two demographics, demand should rise while supply remains somewhat tight in the low to mid range rental market. There have been big increases in rental unit count over the last 15 years however the majority of these units have been in the mid to high end markets. The irony of this is that it is pretty much too expensive to build anything but mid to high level market units anymore.

Follow the shit your fellow monkeys say @shitWSOsays Life is hard, it's even harder when you're stupid - John Wayne
 

Interesting thread. Any insights on political landscape? Republicans can't win another election if democrats get NY, CA, AND TX, which might seem improbable today but demographically Texas will only become increasingly Hispanic, the majority of whom vote liberal. The only thing keeping their votes out is the fact that a lot of them can't vote.. So Republicans kind of have a lose-lose situation with immigration, either support it but risk losing the electoral college, or continue their hardline stance but then risk becoming even more unpopular with not only Hispanic immigrants but all immigrants.

 

Actually not true, Hispanics by nature generally vote conservative for religious reasons. The only reason they have been voting liberal over the last couple of elections is because they have been wooed by free crap. Most immigrants who are here legally are even more anti illegal immigration than most people who are against it.

Follow the shit your fellow monkeys say @shitWSOsays Life is hard, it's even harder when you're stupid - John Wayne
 

Hm, maybe you're right. I'm not Hispanic so no way of knowing what the general sentiment is. I'm a 1st generation Korean immigrant though (moved to Chicago when I was 8, naturalized 1 month before my 18th birthday) and in our community most people tend to sway left and are pro-immigration. Koreans also tend to be very religious, I'm not personally but my parents are for instance.

But we're such a small tiny minority doesn't matter too much how we vote..

 

I was thinking a contrarian position against the extreme love for fast-casual dining currently (CMG et al.) might be to get long the low level slop fast food (MCD, Wendys, BK, whoever is still public). I feel like hispanics and blacks love it and are not part of the upper middle class flight to healthier/organic alternatives. MCD in particular has been getting killed lately and it might be time to load into it.

 
  1. Ticker AHZ- Ian Frazer guy who made HPV vaccine, very very speculative but some phase II results may be dropping in September.
Rarely will any of my posts have enough forethought/structure to be taken seriously.
 
Best Response

Anyone who supports illegal immigration is 1) a disgraceful "American" and 2) spitting in the face of generations of immigrants to who went through the proper channels.

Republicans cause this problem though. Make it a business ending crime to employ a non citizen. Anyone hiring illegals to wash dishes, do lawn work, pick crops, etc will forfeit their property or business. We do something similar with drugs and property forfeiture.

I'd rather see unskilled Americans being paid 10-15 an hour to do the jobs illegals do and as a result we all pay more.

Also, I love how Mexicans (notice how I didn't say Americans) defend illegal immigration as if it's some humanitarian thing. They are just lucky to share a land boarder here. Everyone in Haiti and Somalia is living a life 10x worse than the poorest Mexican, yet are not lucky enough to share a land boarder.

Deport every man, woman and child that is illegal. And stop using the 14th amendment for this anchor baby bullshit. Gotta love how an amendment meant to protect freed American slaves is used to help criminal immigration.

Frankly, it sickens me that Democrats, the party or the poor, working class and African American, support everything that's fucks these people. In a time where we have double digit black unemployment and schools underfunded we are letting in large amounts of unskilled, non English speaking people. Just fucking over those who need these unskilled jobs the most.

Go long on government debt, shitting schools and racial tension. All the while we have educated Indian and Chinese immigrants who have to go through endless beauracracy and years of waiting to being citizens. Guess that what happens when you give a shit about becoming part of your new country.

 

"Anyone who supports illegal immigration is 1) a disgraceful "American" and 2) spitting in the face of generations of immigrants to who went through the proper channels."

Which generation of immigrants are you talking about exactly? The first British colonists that came here for religious freedom and killed off Native Americans to start a new country? The Africans that were brought over as slaves? The Italian, Irish, and Jews that were treated like 2nd class citizens? The Chinese who were forced to live in caves and build a transcontinental railroad? The Japanese who were put in internment camps?

I don't know what the fuck you mean by proper channels but if you're talking some kind of right of passage its plenty of a struggle still to try and start a new life in this country for both legal and illegal immigrants because of people like you, trust me.

I'm also sick and tired of people on this thread telling me, a legal immigrant, should feel about illegal immigrants. I grew up with them, I've cried for my friends who had sick dads that couldn't go to the hospital, and our family has done all sorts of things to try and help other illegal Korean immigrants who were not as FORTUNATE as us to get a green card, NOT because they weren't as hard working. I have friends that used to come over late and do homework with me because their illegal immigrant mom couldn't get any other job but grave shift janitorial work. So next time you leave your nice neat white collar job and head home expecting your carpets to get cleaned and trash to be taken out the next morning, it might be an illegal immigrant doing that for you. Stop telling me what to think, you have no fucking idea what you're talking about

It is you who are on the wrong side of history, because in every single one of those cases, the people who bitched and moaned about immigrants ends up being the angry old angry guy complaining about the brown people moving in his neighborhood that no one pays any attention to

And I already stated in my previous posts the economic potential of allowing more immigrants in, you might say they take American jobs but all it did was cause a labor shortage in Alabama http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-24/africans-relocate-to-alabam…

The economic effects of immigrants both legal and illegal are such a difficult (maybe even impossible) thing to measure but honestly I think diversity is a good thing and what makes this nation great. And for every job you think an immigrant might be taking from an American citizen, you should also remember that's one less able worker that another nation might not have now. You see them as parasites, I see them as untapped dry powder that we can try and harness to make our country even greater.

Illegal immigrants might also take jobs but they also create them: http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/real-money-with-alivelshi/arti…

They aren't just a bunch of sweaty manual laborers, they have dreams and talents and want to do greater things here, and if they have the potential and ambition, why the fuck not make it easier for them, because it might benefit everyone

Here's a true personal story about a Korean friend I had growing up. He was smart, we had similar grades, and he was all around well liked normal kid. But he was here on a temporary visa, and when it came time to apply for college, he couldn't go because he couldn't get any financial aid.

So this Americanized kid who speaks better English than Korean has to go back to Korea where he will probably be underemployed, and we also lose out a potential worker that could of been a tax paying U.S. citizen that did great things for us.

Who wins in that case? Am I a disgusting American for seeing that as wasteful and unjust?

And its not just chance that Mexico happens to be next to us, are underdeveloped, and have to live under fear of drug cartels and corrupt gov officials. Our war on drugs had a big role in their situation and whether or not you give a fuck, its something we should at least acknowledge and respect

 

I'm pretty sure the guys washing dishes or doing yard work don't have forged documents. I'm not advocating fines on a company that goes through a legitimate process to verify who someone is.

That being said these people would be here if there were jobs or the government wasn't giving them documents in order to make it easier on them to stay. Illegal immigration is disgusting and is an a front to anyone who came here legally.

 

I fully support legal immigration. I wish it was easier for educated foreigners to come here and stay. I will never be for illegal immigration. Sorry pal, spin whatever bullshit you want, but a sovereign nation has the right to control immigration.

As just like a typical liberal, you try and inject racism into a conversation.

Please quote anything I said that was against legal immigration? I suppose it is OK to ask Indian and Asian people to go through a process, but Mexicans can just do what they want.

Oh and my ancestors went through the legal process to become Americans. I am an American. I wish you'd start thinking like an American istead of perpetuating a criminal and illegal practice.

Frankly, I'd throw repeat trespassers in jail, but I'm being nice and just deporting these criminals.

Sad you're a citizen when I'm sure there are tons of other people who'd died to be an American and support this country in its natural right to have an orderly immigration process.

 

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