The eurozone is now officially screwed
Europe is f*cked, Hollande wins, that is all. From the BBC:
French socialist Francois Hollande has won a clear victory in the country's presidential election. Mr Hollande - who got an estimated 52% of votes in Sunday's run-off - said the French had chosen "change".
Mr Hollande - the first socialist to win the French presidency since Francois Mitterrand in the 1980s - gave his victory speech in his stronghold of Tulle in central France.He said was "proud to have been capable of giving people hope again".
He said he would push ahead with his pledge to refocus EU fiscal efforts from austerity to "growth".
And from Eddie Braverman (live in Paris):
You should hear all the fuckwit socialists outside my window blaring their horns and acting like they just elected Jesus Christ. Vaguely reminiscent of America in 2008.What I wouldn't give to be a real estate agent in London tomorrow.
75% tax rate for the top earners.....just what every economy needs when capital is tight
Reddit is treating this as good news.
How will this affect markets Monday?
Everyone knew Hollande was going to win, so not much on that end.
Would love to see this overnight session last into the day tomorrow, but not sure, the drop has been quite big already in all 'risk on' assets.
Fiber down 80pips, AUDUSD down 70, oil leveled out at $95 from close at 98.5 on fri... Should be an interesting session into the European open..
Austerity was working so well for Europe anyway.
Haha, this. :)
DING 3,600
Socialists won the election in greece as well.
i'm all in leveraged long on the short end of the VIX curve as of Friday. months of bleeding, and now, vindication.
Through what vehicle? TVIX?
uvxy
i just found a way to exploit wso credits to get infinitly many want to kno how?
get two accounts. push over the modulo 100 mark on one and MS down back to 100 from the other to get the bonus from crossing the modulo 100 mark.
Greece also has neo-Nazis in power now...
Rob Peter to pay Paul. Hollande supporters are all Paul's.
Hollande winning was pretty known. Greece is a wildcard
RIP France (and possibly Europe). It was good while it lasted.
You should hear all the fuckwit socialists outside my window blaring their horns and acting like they just elected Jesus Christ. Vaguely reminiscent of America in 2008.
What I wouldn't give to be a real estate agent in London tomorrow.
Ha, nice one. So, there will be a mass exodus across the channel.
The situation already looks bad, but now they have politicians that the public will implicity back.....just like when Obama was cheered by Dems for disbursing the second half of the same bailout that Bush initiated. What this means? They can ram through the necessary reforms with minimal pushback, all the while calling it something else: they're going to do a better job selling the public on exactly the same things that anyone else with half a brain would do.
Eddie, you'd know this better than anyone: French politicians are masters of saying one thing, doing the exact opposite, and having the public cheer them on for it. Downside, they're most likely going to try to blame the U.S......potential upside, it's very possible they make the necessary reforms. I think things will look very different by Sepember. Worst case scenario, they push off actual reforms until November until they can get a feel of how much they can get out of us and how. Anyone who doubts that the seat of proactive global decision making is the U.S. might want to take off the ideological blinders and just observe for a few months.
....and yeah, the markets are going to go nuts in T-12 hours, with a rally likely by the end of next week when everyone wakes up and discovers that the world still exists. I'm out of the market right now (except 401K) but if I were putting money in, this would be the week to get some bargains....
Completely.
"Above 1m euros [£847,000; $1.3m], the tax rate should be 75% because it's not possible to have that level of income" what a fucking filthy rat.
French high earners, next destination: Canton of Schwyz.
UK did well to avoid the eurozone, they've seen this coming for years
75% tax rate on the highest earners financial transactions tax abolishment of stock options and management bonuses
let the exodus begin...
UK will be the one holding the back when the music stops...the EU is a gold superpower and the UK has none.
Leaving France yet Eddie?
I'll have to see how things shake out. As an expat, there's not a whole lot of stuff the French government does that affects me.
You guys might be interested to know that Hollande was far from the most radical left candidate to be taken seriously in this election cycle. A 75% tax on everything over €1m a year is bad enough, but the nutjob who finished 4th in the initial election two weeks ago was saying he'd put a cap of €350,000 a year on the country. As in, 100% tax over €350,000. And that motherfucker finished 4th. Scary.
It's a shame this had to happen now that Spain can try to come out of the hole with the new government.
Everything European is getting smashed right now. Although I have serious doubts it is about France and rather the fact that Greece can't form a majority in their parliament that won't include a hefty dose of neo nazis or stalinists.
As if France didn't fucking suck already.
I feel bad for Societe Generale... looks like they're going to need to need to relocate now.
How does French culture accept a 75% tax on income above 1MM Euros? France has expensive wines, chateaus, designer clothing, etc. Is no one that desires to be wealthy outraged? And definitely, Societe Generale needs to consider a move to London longterm. There's no way that IB types are looking to stay in France now.
shitty time to be an ambitous, hard working Frenchman....luckily there aren't too many
To put it all in Layman's terms:
Everyone in France is invited to a free picnic every weekend. Wine is free, condoms are free.... and so is love.
when france becomes a third world country i'm gonna roll in their with wads of USD and smash me a mountain of french poon
j'aime tu pour longtemps
The retard is strong with this thread.
Hollande is the best chance the Euro has right now, at least until Merkel gets her ass kicked out of office.
There hasn't been a single EMZ country that has been rewarded with low bond yields after enacting austerity measures. Certainly not Greece or Spain. The actions of Merkozy and the pro-austerity crowd have exacerbated both deficits and the Eurozone crisis with their balance sheet recession insanity.
The only thing that has lowered bond yields up to this point has been central bank action, such as LTRO. What Europe needs right now is a central bank that is willing to accept higher inflation -- especially high in the core, and lower in the periphery, instead of no inflation in the core and recessionary deflation in the periphery -- and willing to engage in activist policies. To that end, if Hollande can help snap the European core out of its fantasy of preserving both the Euro and 1.5% targeted inflation (mutually exclusive ideas), then he's a boon to the EMZ.
Everyone bashing Hollande in this thread needs to stop being butthurt about his high marginal income tax pledge and focus on the reality that austerity is killing Europe -- a reality which has been reflected in the bond markets for some time now.
I don't even know who Hollande is, I just think France sux. Some good points though.
Absolute clown.
French businesses have become grossly uncompetitive relative to their peers - you think that an exodus of the nation's business elite combined with the plan to make it more diffucult to layoff workers will help this?
"Graduate: Oh I just graduated c'est bonne now I need to cherche some travailler" "Business: "Umm yeah sorry we have this lazy SOB who's 50 yrs old we can't fire occupying your desired position come back in ten years"
Hollande's emphasis on so-called "growth" is an illusion. Its simply delaying the reduction of entitlement benefits, which is imperative to a degree. Even if it turns out to be better than pure austerity for the Eurozone France itself is still fucked.
They are not on track to meet their deficit reduction targets, so their solution is to tax the shit out of high earners and businesses. This revenue won't be able to support their welfare programs forever; there won't be any high earners or profitable companies left to tax.
Also one of France's best industries is nuclear power. Which Hollande wants to kill. Nice bro.
It says a lot about that country when HS students are rioting over an increase in the retirement age . . .to 62.
Don't talk about the need to "focus on reality" with me pal.
If I'm a French businessman, I'm shutting down for the year and laying off my workers when I hit 999,000 Euros for the year. No way am I working for .25 on the euro.
Don't worry they have laws to prevent that too.
This election has been over for a long time, its no surprise at all. Markets are reacting negatively tonight to the horrible Greek elections where both of the pro-bailout parties got rinsed and new elections are likely neccesary....Hollande has nothing to do with it.
Finally some sense in this thread.
Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story I guess.
Bond vigilantes will be in full effect. Risk off... dollar rally tomorrow.
The only way to preserve freedom is to destroy it...gotcha, enjoy the decline, France.
The French putting a socialist in office makes me think of a Lord of the Flies type scenario where there is a mutiny on the short bus, and whoever can stick their head out the window the longest gets to be the new driver.
"France has neither winter nor summer nor morals. Apart from these drawbacks it is a fine country. France has usually been governed by prostitutes." —Mark Twain
Oh well. Germany is left holding their dick on austerity. Of course voters hate austerity, just like a child hates taking their medicine.
France sucks so fucking hard haha
I picked a great fucking time to go to B-school in France.
Ahh, fuck.
You can always choose the Singapore campus.
I don't know, assuming this is HEC or INSEAD, I wouldn't worry. I doubt the 75% taxation will actually go through.
i may be missing something here, but A) are you even going to be making money while in business school? and B) if you are, is it going to be more than 1 million euros? lol.
It wasn't going to be a party/cakewalk for me regardless of who won the election as I'll be at neither of those schools. I'm sure in the short-term, or perhaps never at all, this won't affect me, but for some reason it doesn't feel like positive news.
GBS, he's going to be running France for 5 years, I'll graduate in 2. He's still going to be there. I might not be making more than 1 million euros, but my potential employer will be.
Either way, I was just preemptively lamenting out loud, I don't know shit about Hollande or what exactly he's going to try to do. For all we know the points nameback raised might be valid.
Good job Hollande.
Sarkozy was a piece of shit ! and a Mosad agent !
These markets are stupid. The result was known LONG in advance and EUR/USD gaps down?
The Greek results were fairly unexpected
probably was not counting on neo nazis taking up 7% of the greek parliamentary vote.
Don't worry, Socalist, conservatives in France nowadays it's all the same. They gather eating "petis fours" while driking some wine and it's all what politics do. French have to learn to improve their life by themselve and not hoping that the government will do it for them. They haven't understand it the cool way, they will have to learn it the hard way.
I went long XLF this morning at open and once again, Keynesian analysis pays the bills.
Yeah I'm getting out with a LOC today. Make a quick 1.5% (with a little leverage) and out. Not sure I trust it to keep rallying after this. I'm expecting more chop this month like last month.
Thankfully our fund's algo made the same long call as well, which is more important to me than my PA.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17984805
No pro-bailout coalition in Greece. New elections look likely. Anyone know when their next major bond payment is due?
The dude who is second in the running is calling for Greece to withhold their next interest payments, renege on the 2nd €174m bail-out and nationalise the banks!! I just can't get my head round that sort of mentality.
The credit markets are hating this with most indexes significantly wider
He can't form a coalition though. Also, it's easy for 'outside' parties to lob attacks at the bailout supporters when they aren't in power and don't have to deal with the consequences. I think the next EU meeting to release funds is in July / August? That is plenty of time for backroom arm twisting.
Methinks the pot goes back on simmer, not boil.
France doesnt suck. I use to think this way as an American, it is not longer the case.
I now realize where France is coming from and that perhaps de Gualle was one of the most intelligent forward thinking heads of state in the 20th century.
The problems stem from the US being at the center of the IMS not the other way around.
In the end Hollande will do as his paymasters say.
You guys are over reacting. Lets see what transpires.
HAHAHA @
And from Eddie Braverman (live in Paris):
I think there was another quote floating around on how Hollande said finance is evil. the double socialist winning is not good.. the new guys will make it more difficult for the leaders in the eurozone to agree on crap... like they haven't had enough back-and-forth on their policies in the past 2 years already
being socialist, he'll likely put the country into more deficit to create jobs / whatever that makes the common citizen happy, and bad for the macroeconomic growth.. there was a good barrons article on it a copule weeks back
I think Francois is a cool sounding name.
Reading comments of people who are not even able to locate France on a map is quite funny... Don't even talking about a very basic knowledge of what France may actually be!
Of course, French entrepreneurs and bankers and far from being happy of his election, but it won't change the whole face of the country. Just keep in mind that France is part of the Euro zone, one of its key drivers and consequently depends on it for its major reforms.
Hollande may implement a couple of highly controversial reforms, but I won't last. First, the French government is seeking for growth and consequently needs people able to invest and to consume, second maintaining such a high tax burden will encourage entrepreneurs/hardworkers/highly motivated people to run away... Have you ever seen a country where tax revenues were only based on taxes paid by poor people?
How will Hollande's election affect M&A in France?
Will there be a surge of M&A activity as owners try and sell before the 75% tax rate gets enacted?
What happens after the tax rate gets enacted? Does mid market M&A die as business owners and investors flee France?
Or is the 75% tax rate only applied to ordinary income, not capital gains?
In a way, it will affect at least temporarily the M&A market in France. As the tax burden will increase, people will be less prone to invest and company will spend less cash on acquisitions. Fewer deals means lower valuations, means lower fees for bankers. It won't change the face of the world, but it may indeed affect the industry... as long as there is no (real) growth in France.
This government is also willing to decrease the number of LBOs by limiting tax refunds. As someone said, there is often a huge gap between what is said and what is actually implemented...
As far as we understand, this 75% tax rate will only apply to ordinary income and above all should be temporary (2 or 3 years at max) till the country recover from the crisis.
So, yes we'll pay more taxes, but hopefully it won't kill the industry.
ps: I don't support these reforms, I just try to explain them as objectively as possible
Billions of € of what? Govt spending i assume. If so it's obvious by that graph and the flattening of the curves at '09 it shows that austerity does mean relative cuts. "large" is very subjective too.
Aut quae et eaque aspernatur. Vel quibusdam ut repudiandae voluptate dicta autem magni. Est id fugit modi excepturi temporibus nulla consequatur sit.
Itaque doloribus eius quod eaque repellat rem. Quia quaerat non dolores repellendus vel. Non in quas vel recusandae assumenda quae voluptas. Qui et fuga aspernatur deleniti assumenda inventore.
Sed fuga voluptates aspernatur eos. Et possimus occaecati tenetur dolorum. Rerum magni magni adipisci itaque incidunt. Eos enim eligendi deserunt architecto.
Magni occaecati eligendi totam debitis dolore commodi. Ipsam incidunt sit eos consequatur. Facilis nisi praesentium minima veritatis excepturi. Dicta tempora est sit sed. Eligendi tempora omnis modi dolor. Vero qui repellat et et.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Molestiae deleniti et ipsam rerum voluptates. Ullam ratione dolorem deserunt ratione et.
Quia voluptatem eligendi vel et eius. Ab quos quae delectus pariatur voluptatibus. Minima recusandae animi distinctio voluptatem voluptatum voluptatibus. Dolorum ab vitae fugit voluptatem harum a.
Totam ea aliquam ratione provident fuga itaque voluptatem quia. Sint vitae quidem debitis et fugiat ratione delectus. Optio ab suscipit voluptatum temporibus quaerat et quia temporibus. Ea enim eos quidem laudantium totam. Veniam sed sunt consequatur quia consequatur est.
Possimus aut magnam qui facere culpa qui. Assumenda ut et et. In qui et nihil omnis aut aliquam. Nesciunt et aperiam veniam quia. Voluptatibus nemo molestiae omnis vero. Sed doloribus debitis quam corporis rerum ex velit. Quia officia deserunt quidem nihil tenetur accusantium.
Officia adipisci qui voluptas voluptas cumque cumque deleniti id. Quibusdam ut voluptatum rerum sint aliquid nobis. Necessitatibus accusamus eum non exercitationem rerum. Fuga non et consequatur laboriosam voluptate quae inventore. Ullam cum rem molestiae deserunt. Sit nulla est corporis.
Blanditiis ratione rerum aut quis alias quo. Odio et reprehenderit atque ea et.
Dolores eligendi aliquam fugiat modi. Omnis praesentium quo eum dolore possimus illum cum. Est occaecati corporis reiciendis voluptatem excepturi quasi pariatur.
Qui cupiditate impedit fugiat consequatur reprehenderit et est. Aperiam mollitia repellendus repellat asperiores natus eius. Voluptatem qui sit eum.
Tenetur ullam est ratione culpa est amet. Nisi cupiditate corporis repellendus natus sint aut eligendi. Repellendus corrupti saepe quia nesciunt dignissimos qui iusto. Molestiae eum maiores et est consequuntur molestiae.
Sequi ut ut iste autem sed harum ipsum delectus. Nulla sed assumenda sed. Rerum quos voluptatem voluptatibus exercitationem nihil quidem atque. Quas aut dolorem et perspiciatis nihil.