30 Comments
 

excuse the ironic logic in what im about to say but you cant be retroactive about risk management, only proactive about it.. i never understood why axing CEOs over certain semi one time issues or other people when theyve generally done very well happens so often, esp when they get golden parachutes into other cozy exec jobs at other places right after (unless youre dick fuld )

 
shorttheworldexcuse the ironic logic in what im about to say but you cant be retroactive about risk management, only proactive about it.. i never understood why axing CEOs over certain semi one time issues or other people when theyve generally done very well happens so often, esp when they get golden parachutes into other cozy exec jobs at other places right after (unless youre dick fuld )
Totally understand but they're being fired for a lack of institutional control to put it in the words of the NCAA. You fucked up by not managing risk so now pay the price.
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 
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happypantsmcgee
shorttheworldexcuse the ironic logic in what im about to say but you cant be retroactive about risk management, only proactive about it.. i never understood why axing CEOs over certain semi one time issues or other people when theyve generally done very well happens so often, esp when they get golden parachutes into other cozy exec jobs at other places right after (unless youre dick fuld )
Totally understand but they're being fired for a lack of institutional control to put it in the words of the NCAA. You fucked up by not managing risk so now pay the price.

So your saying that the billions loss are simply the work of a rogue team led by Drew and Iksil? These guys aren’t Jerome Kerviel, at Societe Generale or Nick Leeson at Barings Bank.

Yet, Dimon, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday said that he just didn’t realize what a terrible job Drew and her team were doing when he brushed off concerns as a “tempest in a teapot.”

Scapegoating is a standard Wall Street and NCAA practice. Junior executives are always the ones to pay the price in a scandal i.e. Dick Fuld at Lehman Brothers, Jimmy Cayne at Bear Stearns and John Mack at Morgan Stanley, which all have fired subordinates when their respective firms were under fire.

 
shorttheworldand heres a ton of money! while we put a lesser capable person in woo lol
Sounds like a sweet deal to me. 'You suck, here's 20 mil and a permanent vacation'
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
 

Assuming a DV01 of $100 million on a 5 year contract means a notional of $200B, why not just hold the contract to maturity?

1.) Never enter a position that you will need to get out of later. 2.) Ideally, if you are a big player like JPM, buy into a position that you intend to double or triple down in. --->3.) Talk your book, say you hate this position. That it is an albatross around your neck, etc. --->4.) Watch the market move against you. --->5.) Double or triple down into a position you can stay liquid and solvent in for a long time, and do it at a better price.

 
IlliniProgrammerAssuming a DV01 of $100 million on a 5 year contract means a notional of $200B, why not just hold the contract to maturity?

1.) Never enter a position that you will need to get out of later. 2.) Ideally, if you are a big player like JPM, buy into a position that you intend to double or triple down in. --->3.) Talk your book, say you hate this position. That it is an albatross around your neck, etc. --->4.) Watch the market move against you. --->5.) Double or triple down into a position you can stay liquid and solvent in for a long time, and do it at a better price.

Not sure about how these trades exactly work but what about the repo financing terms that accumulate? The longer you wait the more you're bleeding and misallocating capital that could be put to better use elsewhere.

 
mb666Not sure about how these trades exactly work but what about the repo financing terms that accumulate? The longer you wait the more you're bleeding and misallocating capital that could be put to better use elsewhere.
What about just doing a tranche and just putting up the cash to cover all defaults under the tranche? You get a lot of leverage with limited liability, similar to an option transaction. If it's a long-term kinda position, you can tell everyone you think you've got way too much exposure to the underlying index, watch spreads creep up, then buy some more. They're the ones misallocating capital.
 

Not even considering London, this is a gift to Democrats in the US pushing for more regulation. You will hear accusations of "gambling with taxpayer money" going into November, as inaccurate as that statement is. It lets them deflect attention from the trinity of the deficit, fiscal cliff, and unemployment, and onto the "evil" financial institutions.

The GOP wants to put in a Wall Street guy? He'll gamble away the all your money! Really, the timing could hardly be worse with the election and much of Dodd Frank still to be written.

 
West Coast rainmakerThe GOP wants to put in a Wall Street guy? He'll gamble away the all your money! Really, the timing could hardly be worse with the election and much of Dodd Frank still to be written.
It's eff'd up, but yeah, it's almost like the banks and GOP are handing the election to Obama. I'm not taking sides, I'm just pointing out the common sense of it. Romney is going to need a really strong sell to explain his case to the public.
Get busy living
 
Edmundo BravermanWill Dimon get to keep his job?
I'm going with yes: they bank lost some money but isn't currently in systemic danger. I also don't think London will move to ban prop: if there's one place where the bankers (and ruling class in general) have more power over the political system than USA/NYC, it's London, they control everything. This trade is much more similar to the MFGlobal bet than Kweku's, and my personal theory is that Dimon set up the desk in London to skirt the rules here. But I still don't see him losing his job, he's just too good at what he does and the bank seems to be protecting him. Perfect example: they moved the last shareholder meeting to an undisclosed location to keep the heat off of him. I see JPM buying back some shares now that the price is low, shoring up its risk controls, and coming out a winner by the end of the year....guess who gets credit for that?
Get busy living
 
UnforseenThe market does try to stomp the wounded....
It's also payback: this guy was out to kill everyone else off and now they're shooting back, mostly because they can. Markets aren't usually forgiving, but I take a lesson in this: Remember how GS got an open ear and an open check from the gov't (and Buffet) because they had so many friends, while Lehman was basically told to get some lube and fuck themselves? Part of it was systemic, but people that (I personally know) used to have Lehman as a counterparty all basically said the same thing: "those guys were fucking assholes and I fucking hated dealing with them. Fuck 'em, let 'em burn. Hell, I'd short them too, just for the fuck of it." Not saying GS is squeaky clean, but they relied more on smarts+connections and less on dickishness+leverage. Sometimes, not being a jerk has its perks.
Get busy living
 

Dimon = shoddy risk management = London whale = fuel for democratic regulators = overly stringent Dodd frank and volcker rule and Obama getting reelection

I think it's important to acknowledge how this trading debacle could be the one event that not only keeps the economy stagnant but has permanent influences on the bank ficc market making business

I think more on this forum should be really angry at jpm and dimon

IVY for Life
 

what effects will this have on other divisions at j.p. morgan? are we ultimately looking at weaker recruiting? if the trading loss doesn't do it financially, will the reputation damage be the cause?

any input from current employees and their positions would be appreciated

 
mb666Stop the combination of socialism for losses and capitalism for profits.
How avante garde: bankers calling bankers socialists. This is a fun era of history to observe...
Get busy living
 

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