Fair point, guess we'll see if that ends up happening. This seems like a tough environment to leave, ton of uncertainty atm. Less than GFS but more than the typical recession given the sheer number of moving parts (hyper-inflation, russia war escalation impacts, china-us relations, etc)

 

Agree on the uncertainty. While it's not a hiring freeze in most places, they certainly are not rushing candidates through if they are really 'recruiting' at all. In some cases, the premiums firms may have paid to higher are also shrinking about - though that's purely anecdotal from a few conversations. I do think that you will see more postings end of Q1 and more outreach - as attrition hits, people leave and/or firms have to take actions based on results. 

 

I think only by 1Q24. Redemptions are still on the way and nobody is comfortable with markets in the LO world. Gets worse if the widespread 2H reaccel belief doesn't materialize - then more redemptions. Everybody is overstaffed as they expanded teams often >3x the needed capacity until mid-2022. 

 
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Just FYI to all -- after looking aggressively for past few months, going through several interview processes (which I decided not to continue pursuing), and talking to a dozen or so head-hunters:

- Quality LO is NOT hiring right now. Virtually everything I've seen is from 3rd tier firms which has been reinforced by conversations I've had w/ them. It's very clear that the calibre of people at these firms, whether HR, PMs, Analysts, Client Service are nearly all very mediocre. In the past 6 months I've seen 1 high quality LO open up a position and I decided to discontinue that process as the strategy did not align with my own training & philosophy 

- MMs are hiring like crazy, esp in niches like biotech / medtech / etc. If this is your jam, the market is very hot

- Crossovers / late-stage private has also massively tamped down on hiring. Even quality teams are getting fired and sent packing, or at the very least they are not looking to onboard more people 

I've decided to wait this environment out at my current firm for a year and then reassess whether there's mobility to move upwards or if I need to leave to get the promotion. It's a safe place to ride out the storm, but if I were any of you unless there's an absolutely golden opportunity I'd stay put with regards to LO. You have little negotiating power in this environment on comp and even if you miraculously get great comp you're first on the chopping block if things continue going south. Things will get better, but not for a while. Even 1 year might not be enough, could take 1.5-2yrs worse case from here 

 

Are headhunters useful for LO or SM L/S recruiting / how did you go about finding them? Starting as a LO research associate with limited upward mobility this summer

 

The industry is small enough that you eventually remember firm names and reputations. As to how you can tell in interacting with employees, shouldn't that be pretty self explanatory? While everyone may have different impressions of different firms (e.g. what Sequoia views as a third-tier, I may view as a second-tier etc.), whether someone impresses you in conversation or not should be independent of that IMO.

 

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