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July 31, 2026
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From an academic standpoint you need to use a the expected value of the cashflows and use a WACC based on systematic risk.
So if you were to take the expected value of cashflows (probability of success X revenue when succesful) you shouldn't increase the discount rate you got using CAPM or whatever.
I'm pretty sure that practitioners sometimes adjust the discount rate, but if you believe what matters is systematic risk, then you shouldn't do that.
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