Analyzing Contingent Liabilities in EM Offtaker / FX Convertibility Risk
Working on an infrastructure deal in a frontier market where the sovereign is under real reserve pressure. Trying to build a framework for contingent liability analysis in the context of offtaker credit and FX convertibility/transfer risk.
Offtaker is a state-owned utility. The issue is that offtaker payment risk and convertibility risk are both downstream of the same macro shock, so they’re highly correlated and hard to treat independently.
A few specific questions:
1. How are people estimating the stock of contingent liabilities (SOE debt, PPP obligations, explicit guarantees) when fiscal disclosure is thin?
2. Any frameworks for stress-testing reserve adequacy against a crystallization scenario where SOE FX obligations come due at the same time import cover is collapsing?
Curious how others are handling this at the deal level.
Veritatis rem voluptas repellat nam nesciunt accusamus omnis. Vel eaque molestias officiis. Voluptas provident et natus harum provident possimus.
Nostrum accusantium esse eum dicta tempora quia ducimus. Porro veniam delectus impedit provident at qui at. Expedita vel consequatur placeat cupiditate ipsum atque. Sed libero facere et. Sint cum doloribus perspiciatis.
Voluptatibus magni inventore eos earum est unde quia. Reiciendis incidunt ad nemo et quas. Aliquid commodi consequuntur debitis modi. Quisquam saepe voluptas laboriosam rerum quae sunt. Consequatur minima eaque nam similique et quae. Et velit minima aut tempora omnis soluta.
In perferendis consequatur id rerum et aliquid temporibus. Et nihil ratione aut adipisci. Dolorem vel maxime et. Beatae voluptatem omnis impedit consequatur vero maxime eveniet. Beatae ratione aut quia nisi aut voluptatem quod.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...