Retail coverage folks --
I'm curious about how you would calculate the trailing 12 month same store sales figure for a company if you have the quarterly data (let's assume that the 4Q 12 through 3Q 13 same store sales numbers are +0.5%, -0.4%, +1.0%, and +0.2%, respectively -- I picked random numbers for illustration purposes). In the same way, how would you back in to a company's YTD reported same store sales figures (again using the same illustrative values)? Thanks.
Many retailers report SSS on a monthly basis although there has been a growing reluctance/trend from some notable retailers to share monthly SSS data.
The number of retailers reporting monthly SSS has dropped precipitously in the last year or two. It's down to around 9 now, at least for the companies I cover. (Costco, Fred's, Stein Mart, American Apparel, Buckle, Cato, Gap, L Brands and Zumiez).
You'd weight the results by SSS sales but those numbers are tricky because the SSS base is constanting changing from new openings, closings, and most importantly remodels.
Most companies will give you their YTD SSS number in their PRs. Also curious why you'd want to focus on YTD SSS number, most people care about looking at QoQ or YoY compares for SSS results. On top of that it is also interesting to look at SSS "stacks" as in -10% on year, +10% next year, =0% stack. Yes I know, compounding says that doesn't add up to zero but given the limited ammount of numeric SSS results this is a common way of looking at results on a comparative multi-year basis, especially amoung peers.
tiger2012, I was basically trying to see if it's possible to back in to the YTD number provided. I recognize the challenges you brought up in doing that, which is totally a fair point.
I do use the 2-year stack as well...thanks for your views.
Can you explain what a 2 Year Stacked Comp is?
To answer your question, it is pretty difficult to back into the SSS figures due to the reasons mentioned by tiger.
Furthermore, many companies are now including 'Direct to Consumer' (aka online) sales in their SSS figures which will inflate the figure while other companies choose to not include this number. There's not really an industry standard at this point and when companies have many different brands like Gap it would make it pretty difficult to back your way in.
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