Best ways to frame upside / PT for a stock
So this is kind of a newbie question, but curious to hear more thoughts.
TLDR: Do you ever pitch a thesis where you don't diverge with consensus / don't think its "discounted", but you think the compounding of EPS / ROIC mechanism is > than market growth over next 3yr period, so you buy it anyways? Or in theory, if you are thinking that, that means that you diverge somewhere between what is priced in today?
I will also caveat that I understand that risk/reward is not an explicit price target, and more triangulating across a couple of frameworks to get a sense of ranges, ebbs and flows, etc.
So super simplistic: ABC makes $10 EPS today, consensus at $12 EPS FY1, I am at $15 EPS. Stock is $100 today. So simple upside is 8.3x $15, or $124.5. Maybe argue that multiple can be different and do ranges here for what a new multiple for this biz is at 50% growth vs. 20% or that expansion in growth rate relative to starting multiple/multiple range needs to be accounted for
You can also do the DCF out by hand if needed, and maybe it says intrinsic price for these characteristics is $124.5 (for whatever that's worth)
Another way I often see is assigning a multiple to another out year estimate and discounting that number back to today by 3-5yrs or whatever
BUT, what if your estimates are mostly in-line with consensus, or not variant to a degree that warrants lots of conviction/other stuff. Yet the business is expected to grow EPS >20% for the next 3yrs. I guess theoretically if the market truly believes that, it should be priced in a way where that growth is hypothetically pulled forward and you don't.
This gets into the compounder bro world I guess - let business compounding do its magic blah blah, always works best in rear view mirror but credit due to the people who got a few of these right early on
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