How much value do HFs give to company guidance when forecasting?
A lot of the high growth companies seem to really low-ball guidance. How do HFs think about that? Do they build out their estimates independent of what the company guides or do they use that as a reference point (in conjunction with past beats)?
Use it as a reference point and then figure out where they're sandbagging.
Sell side tends to model within guidance (high end if company typically low balls) but buyside is paid to find out what consensus is missing.
If a company normally beats high end of guidance, you can bet stock will probably be down when it actually hits with its guidance.
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