Is this how you model quarters?
I'm trying to build a full-flowing financial model on an apparel retailer. I want to model quarters, top down, based on industry growth. Does it make sense to model annual growth based on industry growth, eg industry expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% over next 10 years (based on external research), company should grow faster at 12% pa, and then just model quarters based on historic weights, eg Q1 has historically been 27% of total, Q2 15%, Q3 25% etc?
You should have a view on what’s happening in the quarters, especially the upcoming quarter and how that reflects into H2 or the next 2/3 quarters.
Mix changes/sequential pricing trends, seasonality (and the quality of the comp) can play a role. Interquarter data that’s relevant for your company should be a useful guide for the next 1-2Q. Mgmt commentary (and reliability) is an important tool. Have they pre guided to a softer Q2? Is this order phasing/lumpy mechanics or more durable? How does this impact the H2 weighted numbers and implied margin/top line run rate step up to hit/beat the guide for the FY etc.
what you’re doing isn’t quarterly, it’s just annual pretending to be quarterly.
Yes but he needs to start somewhere. For a newbie, would recommend modeling down from the year first (wrong but you know it), and then calibrate it to incorporate seasonality and your view on drivers.
My intern can do all of this, you’re setting the bar too low
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