Short Stock Pitch - Prep

I'm currently prepping my long/short ideas for interview processes. Do you think the below pitch / structure is suffice? This is in the context of "hey pitch me your short idea" in any type of interview situation. 

I think this is probably too long for a intro stock pitch but would be great to get your opinion on which portion to cut / adjust. 

I've redacted the name but if you know the stock, probably obvious.
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I’m Short stock - 30% upside 

What tech stock does... 30 sec overview

Variant view: 
Street is overestimating the timing of revenue recovery conflating seasonal with structural issues. Consensus treats current slowdown as cyclical and expects a clean rebound from 2026-27. I think we are at structural inflection point where CPG’s declining OSG resulting from their weakening pricing power and volume growth, sticky private label share gains, and retailer pricing power will cap future promotion budgets and redemption intensity through 2027, driving down revenue growth for N2Y. [stock's] mix shift to retailer customers compresses gross margins via higher revenue share and recent sales restructuring will result in higher S&M with lower productivity to chase shrinking budgets.

Street is modeling quick reversion to growth driven by normalization of CPG budgets as well as minimal margin degradation that comes along with higher retailer mix and supply shortages

Quantify Variant View vs. Consensus 

• I’m modeling my base case revenue growth for FY26 at -10% and FY27 at -1%, vs.  consensus growth estimates of 2% for FY26 and 10% for FY27. I’m also modeling Gross Margins of 75% for FY26 and 76% for FY27, below consensus margins of 79% for FY26 and FY27. I’m modeling Adj. EBITDA margins of 15% and 14% for FY26 and FY27, in-line with consensus margins of 15% in FY26 and 18% in FY27
• Stock is currently trading at of 11x NTM EBITDA  and 8x 2027 EBITDA 

• Applying a 8x FY27 EBITDA multiple implies a fair value of x, below the current price of y, with a 30% upside / 10% downside, implying a X:Y R/R 

  Evidence of Variant View vs. Consensus 

• CPG supply is tighter for longer: pricing power peaked in ’22-’23; volumes are negative / flat and large cap OG at multi-year lows with [CPG brand A and B] both cutting FY25 EPS. Private labels are taking 30-40 bps share gains / quarter and its hard to reverse given retailers are pushing their own brands
  • Both forces will drive down redemptions / customers for N2Y
• Mix shift to other retailers carries less favorable economics vs. [encumbent retail customer], so mix shift dilutes GM as [New Customer A and B Retailer] scale on platform

• Sales execution / efficiency has been choppy and is likely to get worse given a) they are re-orienting their GTM approach b) budgets are now harder to win 

  Analyst Sentiment /Positioning

• Analysts are taking a wait and see approach with 5 holds, 1 strong buy and 1 strong sell
• Median price target is [$Y], implying a x% upside from current levels 

• Short interest is moderate at 6.6% of float, so not overly crowded.

  Set Up

• stock is at an Inflection point in its growth curve and margin structure where we had 3 consecutive quarters of negative LTM net new customers and redemptions / customer decline with 3 consecutive quarters of gross margin decline & EBITDA decline with LTM margins compressing from peak of [30%] in Q3'24 to [25%] in Q2'25
• Past it’s peak growth point as historical overperformance attributed to COVID pull-forward adoption – unlikely stock will revert back to 15-20% growth in the next few years 

• Structural long term cracks in the supply shortage that the market isn’t baking in 

  Catalyst: 

  • Continued proof point around constrained CPG spend promo along with stagnant / slowing OSG from CPG brands 

  • FY25 and FY26 earnings prints