Turnaround probability analysis
Can someone please help me assess the probabilty of a turnaround for a person? If Yes read on. What is the probabilty that a broke 19 year old recent high school graduate living with his parents with low income and no college education for themselves too, trying to start a fund on his own, with no track record, no investors and no finacial help, but a very strong desire and decent efforts to succeed with a lot of caliber and knowledge, make it the hedge fund industry amongst the the big guys or make any money?
Turnaround probability? Sure someone can improve their life.
Start their own fund with no track record or investors? I wish probabilities of 0% existed so I could answer this question appropriately.
Thanks for the honest input, appreciate it.
0%
Thanks, honest input helps a lot with self-reflection.
0 bro. I have an Ivy League degree, 3.8+ GPA, and solid experience but navigating this HF analyst market is tough and a nightmare
Starting a fund is relatively easier than becoming an analyst. Just my personal view.
I'd say 2 basis points. Nothing is ever zero probability.
Thanks for the input. How can the probability be increased.
There are two things you need to make money in the markets - skill and capital. Both are very hard to gain in isolation. If you have the capital, you can spend some of it gaining skill - tricky but possible, even in the modern market. Read books, experiment, try to find pockets of inefficiencies that others have missed and it is possible that you make it. If you don't have the capital, (which would be my guess), you could (a) go to a good school and study something real (math, science etc), then if once you get a degree you still want to be in this racket, (b) go work for someone who will teach you and (c) eventually, once you have the pedigree, do your own thing. Steps (a) and (b) should take care of the skill, (c) will take care of the capital. By the time you're ready to take the plunge into step (c), you will be reasonably well off already.
IDK.
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