Unsure about furture...funds that don't focus on modeling/individual company fundamentals and instead on macro, momentum, etc?
Apologies in advance for what may be a dumb question.
Long-story short, I'm finishing up my stint in IB and looking at future paths. While I have always enjoyed and been passionate about markets, I'm not interested in doing any more modeling nor necessarily sifting through 10-Ks in order to model down cash flows, business fundamentals, catalysts, etc.
Are there are non-quant funds that focus on macro and broader market trends / momentum rather than individual stock picking? Or am I just looking for a completely different line of work (or perhaps something that does not exist)? Perhaps I should be looking for something more so on the investment research side (i.e. Fundstrat, 3fourteenresearch, etc.)
More than happy to chat with anyone further or answer any questions to provide more context if helpful.
Thank you very much
Two words: Cathie Wood
Would not recommend OP lol
Do you think macro funds just read the newspaper for research?
You go into a macro fund, you will spend days sifting through major metro home rental market datapoints so you can figure out the monthly reading of the OER component of the CPI, which might lead to a 0.0005% "miss" in the March data vs consensus (which will of course require building a large model).
Seriously, it sounds like you're looking for a gig that doesn't require detailed or hard work.. unlikely to find that in finance.
Thank you for the response and fair points! To be honest what you described regarding CPI and OER research would actually sound interesting to me. Or at least sounds more interesting to me than deep diving into specific companies.
I figured most of these macro funds today are more so interested in quant work hence my apprehension, but are there still fundamental non-quant macro funds out there? Seems few and far between.
Back in the day paul tudor jones used to print out charts of previous time periods and just overlay them on today's charts. Then he would pick up his phone and chat with like 5 pit traders and ask "are you bullish SP500 today? what about bonds?".
Using that + rudimentary macro analysis, it seems like he just tried to arbitrage differences between markets and catch some trends or turning points. (source: interviews + that early documentary he always takes down)
Would've been a really cool time to be in the markets. Unfortunately, not sure anyone is willing to pay people to trade off their gut instincts, technicals, and some basic analysis of macroeconomics.
Thanks for the response…fair enough. Born too late it seems ha
MMPM nailed it do you dislike reading in depth information about businesses and valuation or you do you dislike looking at tons of data over and over. In commodities we build S/D models that you learn in Econ 101 and obsess about many different data points. In crude we get a weekly # and hope it is trending to our model but its a flawed # most times but yet obsess about it. While we use macroecon to understand what could be catalysts to shift our LT supply/demand as well sort of thing. You stare and stare at data all day versus reading 10Ks sort of thing.
I disagree with the PTJ thesis, PTJ like many macro guys back in the day...did not sleep, he took short-term naps around his day to get the latest news and see if the market was moving in his direction. While nightly/weekly he analyzed the best data they had that the time (basic charts vs econ indicators) but ultimately he always had a fundamental thesis for his trades. If you read market wizards, his skill was when to be aggressive when he saw the fundamentals line up and when the tape was not going his way, he stopped out. Lots of macro PMs who exist like this still today, even systematic RV guys but you do not get such luxuries till you are a PM with 3-4 years experience, till then its grinding grinding data. If you never grinded data how can you guide/question/challenge your analysts to go deeper when building models.
If you do not enjoy data or thinking learning python or so is too much of a challenge for you. Sales route would be the better path.
Thank you for the response. I would say I don't necessarily mind analyzing the data just not really interested in modeling out companies or trying to really get granular on single names. Likewise, not interested in coding / python. I rather do find data like PMI, ISM, NFP, claims, CPI, etc far more interesting and I suppose just more relevant to the real world on the day to day basis so there's perhaps more meaning in the work I feel.
Just not sure what kind of roles involve this kind of macro-level work that aren't highly quantitative and math-oriented in nature.
If you do not enjoy coding/python my guess you will not enjoy data structures or working with metadata. All macro jobs in next two years will be python led the evolution is finally here. All the top MMs have their own internal chat gpt now so people who do not want to learn to code can no longer use that excuse. Everyone has access to AI to write your code now so we truly filter people now based on how easily they can work with data structures. It will be like wanting to be a banker and saying I do not like using ppt.
There is many people we come across who use 15 spreadsheet excel macro models and struggle to think in datastructures, do not know what they want automated and they get overwhelmed when have to do anything around big data, which is where most edge for RV macro is.
As said youd better suited for a sales style role where you write up slides to present ideas vs grind data.
Why not just do consulting
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