What does cyclicals sector coverage entail

What exactly is “cyclicals” coverage in an industry coverage model? Just trying to understand this a bit better. E.g. if a predominately l/s industrials PM at an MM switched funds and the new MM announced they are running a l/s “cyclicals” strategy - what’s the difference here?

Any examples of stocks?

4 Comments
 

Cyclicals sector coverage focuses on industries and companies whose performance is closely tied to the broader economic cycle. These sectors tend to do well during periods of economic growth and expansion but struggle during downturns or recessions. The key difference between a "cyclicals" strategy and a more specific sector like "industrials" is that cyclicals encompass a broader range of industries that are sensitive to economic fluctuations, not just industrials.

Examples of Cyclical Sectors:

  1. Industrials: Companies producing machinery, equipment, or construction materials (e.g., Caterpillar, Deere & Co.).
  2. Consumer Discretionary: Retailers, automakers, and luxury goods companies (e.g., Ford, Nike, Starbucks).
  3. Energy: Oil and gas companies, especially those tied to exploration and production (e.g., ExxonMobil, Chevron).
  4. Materials: Companies in mining, chemicals, or forestry (e.g., Dow, Freeport-McMoRan).
  5. Financials: Banks and financial institutions that are sensitive to interest rates and credit cycles (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America).

Key Differences in Strategy:

  • A long/short industrials PM would focus specifically on industrial companies, analyzing their cyclicality within the industrial sector.
  • A long/short cyclicals PM would broaden the scope to include other cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary, energy, and materials, allowing for a more diversified approach to capturing economic trends.

Stock Examples:

  • Industrials: Boeing, General Electric.
  • Consumer Discretionary: Tesla, Home Depot.
  • Energy: Schlumberger, Halliburton.
  • Materials: Alcoa, DuPont.

Cyclicals coverage requires a deep understanding of macroeconomic indicators, business cycles, and sector-specific drivers to anticipate how these companies will perform as the economy shifts.

Sources: Long term, concentrated, deep fundamental investing, Q&A: HF out of undergrad, ~5 years later, Bulls vs. Bears in 2018, Basic Overview of the Consumer Sector, Why do Tiger Cubs focus on Tech and Consumer Discretionary stocks so much?

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While I do think FIG and Consumer are cyclical in nature, I think of that term meaning “Energy + Cyclical parts of industrials”. E&P, Refining, OFS, Machinery, Metals&Mining, Transport. These books also probably cover Utilities and Midstream but that’s not cyclical in the same way

 
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