What have successful single managers been doing?
We know that single managers in general have been underperforming. For those who have been doing well though, what do you think they have been doing differently? and who are they?
They’ve been long tech
This, basically.
Long tech
long tech
long nasdaq
Most of those that are doing well are heavily invested in the tech sector. That's the differentiating factor that I can see at the moment.
Fuck you and your stupid blue link
I do enjoy and agree with the long tech comment. However, my view is that successful managers have strong progress and adapt within their niche.
To me a strong process is making a prediction based on a repeatable research process, checking if they were correct, and adjusting the process of it was a foreseeable error. The adjustment is key to longevity, if you’re a value guy realize it’s not working right now and adapt within the value niche.
Gambling
Riding the beta wave aka tech and tech IT....
not much alpha in traditional L/S in this democratized information age
If you're long AMZN, GOOG, FB, MSFT, TSLA, and short S&P 500, you've crushed it. The biggest value add is from your investor relations team convincing dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks investors/allocators that you actually have real IP.
If the biggest value add comes from your IR team, that should tell you something.
LO your typical wayfair / Shopify while juicing beta with huge factor risk. Why can SM justify themselves as an asset class???
They can't. That's why they are shrinking massively.
Equity L/S AUM has CAGR'd at ~5% over the last 10 years, which is surprisingly stable.
But considering performance alone should have it growing 5-10% a year, you're actually looking at AUM that is organically flat to decling 5% a year.
Now go one level deeper and carve out the multi-managers and their progeny (Melvin, Holocene, Candle Stick), put to the side. And then carve out the small handful of Tiger cub winners that have been crushing it with stellar performance and real IP on the private side (Tiger Global, Coatue, Viking, D1) and put them to the side.
The remaining "everyone else" cohort is a complete fucking murder scene.
$9bn Eton Park -- dead
$16bn Perry Street -- dead
$20bn Glenview -- as good as dead
$35bn Paulson & Co -- ~$5bn
$12bn Greenlight -- ~$1.5bn
And these are just highly visible fallen stars, there tons of funds you've never even heard of that are dead or on the way there.
Bill Ackman who was once described as baby buffet went from I think $20bn or $25bn AUM to $11.5 bn AUM
Dang I knew Glenview was a little bit tough but didn’t expect them to shrink this badly.
Does Melvin also run in pods? I thought the top guy runs everything
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